近期，工业硅期货维持震荡下跌态势。9月30日，工业硅期货主力2511合约收报8640元/吨，下跌 0.17%，重回9000元/吨下方。 中信期货分析师郑非凡认为，当前工业硅期货价格震荡下行，主要原因是成本支撑减弱。"此前，煤炭 价格上涨为工业硅价格带来有力的成本支撑，叠加西北产区复产节奏放缓限制了供应增长。临近国庆假 期，煤炭市场交易量减少，价格大幅回落，工业硅的成本支撑明显减弱，进而带动价格同步下行。"郑 非凡解释称，工业硅对煤炭的依赖，主要体现在碳质还原剂的直接消耗以及火电电价的间接传导。自去 年年底以来，煤炭价格与工业硅价格高度相关，煤价波动会对硅价形成显著影响。 库存方面，当前工业硅库存出现小幅增加态势。根据百川盈孚数据，截至9月26日当周，工业硅现货库 存为44.50万吨，环比增加0.54%。 展望后市，方富强认为，大厂持续增产或带动工业硅供应增长，而多晶硅短期仍有限产预期，或导致工 业硅需求走弱。整体来看，工业硅基本面偏弱，价格或维持偏弱震荡态势。 蔡定洲也认为，尽管当前工业硅行业供需双增，但去库周期基本结束，甚至存在累库迹象，反映出基本 面已转向宽松。考虑两大主产区供应增减不一，同时核心消费终端 ...

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7830.0 yuan, with a current price of 7690.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.26% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Haizheng Futures indicates that the industrial silicon market is showing signs of stabilization, although the fundamental factors do not support a price reversal due to increased production from Xinjiang and the southwest regions, leading to a rise in output [1] - Newhu Futures expects the industrial silicon main contract to maintain a bottom oscillation pattern, as the current demand from downstream sectors remains insufficient, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum alloys shows resilience, and the operating rate of organic silicon is recovering, which has led to a decrease in high inventory levels, primarily through warehouse receipts [1] - Despite the ongoing consumption of warehouse receipts, the overall inventory remains high, and supply is expected to continue increasing, while demand growth is limited, making sustained inventory reduction unlikely [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The industrial silicon market is characterized by high inventory levels and an oversupply expectation, with the current market conditions leading to a weak maintenance of spot prices [1] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards bearishness, with cost support remaining at lower levels, suggesting that the main contract will likely oscillate at the bottom, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Industrial silicon is experiencing inventory accumulation, and the futures market continues to decline. For polysilicon, the recommended strategy is to short at high prices [2]. - The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2507) has a closing price of 7,160 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 55 yuan compared to T - 1, 755 yuan compared to T - 5, and 1,620 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume is 456,239 lots, down 83,444 lots from T - 1, and its open interest is 208,497 lots, down 15,649 lots from T - 1 [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2507) has a closing price of 35,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 320 yuan compared to T - 1, and a decrease of 490 yuan compared to T - 5. Its trading volume is 150,575 lots, an increase of 5,236 lots from T - 1, and its open interest is 77,400 lots, down 871 lots from T - 1 [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: - The spread between the near - month contract and the continuous first contract for industrial silicon is -20 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and continuous first short spread is 46.3 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the spread is 1795.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot premium of industrial silicon (against different grades) shows various changes, while the spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type recycled material) is -895 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price and Profit**: - The price of industrial silicon in different regions (e.g., East China's oxygen - passing Si5530 at 8300 yuan/ton, Yunnan's Si4210 at 10000 yuan/ton) and polysilicon (N - type recycled material at 36500 yuan/ton) has different trends. - The profit of silicon plants (e.g., Xinjiang's new standard 553 at -4108 yuan/ton, Yunnan's new standard 553 at -7369 yuan/ton) and polysilicon enterprises (-4.9 yuan/kg) also shows different changes [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 58.9 million tons, enterprise inventory is 23.8 million tons, and industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 82.7 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 31.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons compared to T - 1 [2]. - Polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 27.0 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: - The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., show different degrees of decline. For example, Xinjiang's silicon ore is 400 yuan/ton, and its price has decreased by 20 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Prices in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Industry Chain**: - The prices of products in the polysilicon photovoltaic industry chain such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA also show different degrees of decline. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers is 0.94 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.24 yuan compared to T - 22 [2]. - **Prices and Profits in Other Related Industries**: - In the organic silicon industry, the price of DMC is 11450 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is -135 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy industry, the price of ADC12 is 20200 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is -90 yuan/ton [2]. **Macro and Industry News** - The 1 660MW unit of Qiya Xinjiang Group's Changdong Power Generation 2×660MW ultra - supercritical unit has completed the blow - pipe work on May 4, 2025, and successfully carried out the first impulse on May 27, 2025, and is now capable of generating electricity. The 2 unit is under construction, and after the two units are put into operation, the annual power generation will be nearly 7.5 billion kWh [2][4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish view, with the value ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].