近期，工业硅期货维持震荡下跌态势。9月30日，工业硅期货主力2511合约收报8640元/吨，下跌 0.17%，重回9000元/吨下方。 中信期货分析师郑非凡认为，当前工业硅期货价格震荡下行，主要原因是成本支撑减弱。"此前，煤炭 价格上涨为工业硅价格带来有力的成本支撑，叠加西北产区复产节奏放缓限制了供应增长。临近国庆假 期，煤炭市场交易量减少，价格大幅回落，工业硅的成本支撑明显减弱，进而带动价格同步下行。"郑 非凡解释称，工业硅对煤炭的依赖，主要体现在碳质还原剂的直接消耗以及火电电价的间接传导。自去 年年底以来，煤炭价格与工业硅价格高度相关，煤价波动会对硅价形成显著影响。 库存方面，当前工业硅库存出现小幅增加态势。根据百川盈孚数据，截至9月26日当周，工业硅现货库 存为44.50万吨，环比增加0.54%。 展望后市，方富强认为，大厂持续增产或带动工业硅供应增长，而多晶硅短期仍有限产预期，或导致工 业硅需求走弱。整体来看，工业硅基本面偏弱，价格或维持偏弱震荡态势。 蔡定洲也认为，尽管当前工业硅行业供需双增，但去库周期基本结束，甚至存在累库迹象，反映出基本 面已转向宽松。考虑两大主产区供应增减不一，同时核心消费终端 ...

工业硅产业日报 2025-09-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 9055 | 35 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 270931 | -2765 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -64683 | 2832 广期所仓单(日,手) | 49925 | -38 | | | 12月合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | -395 | 5 11-12月合约工业硅 | -395 | 5 | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9500 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9700 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 445 | -35 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 11120 | 0 | | | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 1860 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 精煤平均价(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 木片平均价(日,元/吨) ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices have declined recently, with fluctuations in the market and limited improvement in the fundamentals, leading to a cooling market sentiment and price drop [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon dropped from 8750 CNY/ton to 8700 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.57% during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025. The national average price is 9196 CNY/ton, down by 182 CNY/ton [1]. - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw the following prices: 553 at 8764 CNY/ton (down 438 CNY/ton), 441 at 9174 CNY/ton (down 178 CNY/ton), and 421 at 9875 CNY/ton (down 97 CNY/ton) [1][3]. - The FOB price decreased by 30 USD/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, production in northern regions remains stable, with a slight increase in large factory operations. Southern regions are experiencing increased output due to the rainy season and new capacity coming online [1]. - Demand from downstream sectors is slightly increasing, with higher operating rates in organic silicon monomer plants and some recovery plans in multi-crystalline silicon production lines. Overall, the demand from the three major downstream sectors for industrial silicon is expected to increase slightly [1][2]. Market Sentiment - Despite the slight increase in demand, the overall market sentiment is cooling, and the industry is facing pressure on inventory consumption, making price increases difficult. The market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation [2].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7830.0 yuan, with a current price of 7690.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.26% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Haizheng Futures indicates that the industrial silicon market is showing signs of stabilization, although the fundamental factors do not support a price reversal due to increased production from Xinjiang and the southwest regions, leading to a rise in output [1] - Newhu Futures expects the industrial silicon main contract to maintain a bottom oscillation pattern, as the current demand from downstream sectors remains insufficient, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum alloys shows resilience, and the operating rate of organic silicon is recovering, which has led to a decrease in high inventory levels, primarily through warehouse receipts [1] - Despite the ongoing consumption of warehouse receipts, the overall inventory remains high, and supply is expected to continue increasing, while demand growth is limited, making sustained inventory reduction unlikely [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The industrial silicon market is characterized by high inventory levels and an oversupply expectation, with the current market conditions leading to a weak maintenance of spot prices [1] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards bearishness, with cost support remaining at lower levels, suggesting that the main contract will likely oscillate at the bottom, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The current demand for industrial silicon has not improved, and the inventory has not been effectively digested. In the short term, the silicon price will continue to fluctuate weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the overall weak situation of industrial silicon spot prices remained unchanged. Downstream buyers mostly purchased on demand, and there was no new demand. Currently, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon is between 8,700 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is between 9,600 - 10,100 yuan/ton. On the futures side, the closing price of the main contract si2507 of industrial silicon futures yesterday was 8,130, a decrease of 1.87%. The intraday trading volume was 16,616 lots, with a total of 155,000 lots and a turnover of 8.519 billion yuan [1] Supply Side - Recently, the prices of silica and silicon coal in the raw material segment have weakened, reducing the production cost of manufacturers. With the approaching of the wet season and the resumption of production of previously shut - down manufacturers, the output may increase slightly. Traders are inquiring about goods, and spot - futures traders are actively quoting. Some low - priced goods have had small - volume transactions. The production in the Gansu production area is relatively stable, and the output of 97 - silicon continues to remain low. The short - term start - up is difficult to improve. The operating rate of medium - frequency furnaces is low, and the prices are still at a low level, making it difficult for manufacturers to resume production [1] Demand Side - The polysilicon market continues to operate weakly. Currently, the terminal demand is significantly weak, and downstream procurement is becoming more cautious. The weekly trading volume remains flat, and the market stalemate remains unchanged. The price of organic silicon is temporarily stable. After some large monomer manufacturers made a tentative price increase before the festival, they sold goods with a small discount, and the number of inquiries has increased. The price of aluminum alloy ingots fluctuates. Large manufacturers have slightly reduced their inventories, and enterprises with low inventories are more willing to hold prices, making the market circulation slightly looser [1] Inventory - On May 19, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 66,097 lots, a single - day decrease of 287 lots. The total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [1]