Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to weakened cost support and mixed supply-demand dynamics, with prices falling below 9000 yuan/ton [1][2][4]. Supply Side Analysis - The main contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the continuous increase in supply against weak demand expectations. The southwestern region is expected to reduce production due to the upcoming dry season, while the northwestern region anticipates increased production [2][3]. - From January to August this year, the total industrial silicon output in China reached 2.6 million tons, with Xinjiang contributing 1.37 million tons (53%) and the southwestern region contributing 370,000 tons (14%) [2]. - The southwestern region's production is expected to decrease as smelting electricity prices are set to rise after the wet season ends, while the northwestern region's production may increase due to stable coal electricity prices [2][3]. Demand Side Analysis - Currently, industrial silicon demand is stable during the traditional peak season, but uncertainties arise from the polysilicon market, which may see new capacity ramp-up and some production cuts [3]. - If the polysilicon industry implements "production limits and sales control" measures effectively, industrial silicon demand could significantly decline [3]. - Domestic demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloys is showing marginal improvement, with notable export performance in aluminum alloys. In August, China's industrial silicon exports reached 76,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.56% and a year-on-year increase of 18.30% [3]. Inventory and Market Outlook - Industrial silicon inventory has shown a slight increase, with current spot inventory at 445,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.54% [3]. - The overall market is expected to remain weak, with continuous production increases from major manufacturers potentially leading to supply growth, while polysilicon's limited production expectations may weaken industrial silicon demand [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply glut situation of industrial silicon has not improved yet, although the supply has decreased slightly. The downstream demand is generally flat, and the industry inventory remains at a high level. Industrial silicon prices are currently in a high - level shock, with insufficient upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9055 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the position of the main contract is 270,931 lots, down 2,765 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 64,683 lots, up 2,832 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 49,925 lots, down 38 lots. The closing price of the December contract is - 395 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 395 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Si main contract is 445 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, an increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1337.59 tons, an increase of 1220.14 tons; the monthly export volume is 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2635.83 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.09 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4154.82 tons. The weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.12%, down 1.59 percentage points. The monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4154.82 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On September 16, the Standardization Administration of China issued solicitation drafts for three national standards, setting clear energy - consumption red lines for polysilicon production enterprises. In terms of industrial silicon, the supply - side operating rate is 33.12%, down 1.91% month - on - month. There are expectations of production cuts in the southwest region, while the northwest region has stable production due to electricity - price advantages [2]. 3.7 Demand and Supply Analysis - Supply: The overall supply glut situation has not been improved. Although the operating rate has decreased, the northwest region has stable production, and there are expectations of production resumption in some areas [2]. - Demand: The downstream demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy is generally flat. Organic silicon has a negative impact on demand, polysilicon has an increased demand but may be limited in the long - term, and aluminum alloy has limited demand - pulling [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices have declined recently, with fluctuations in the market and limited improvement in the fundamentals, leading to a cooling market sentiment and price drop [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon dropped from 8750 CNY/ton to 8700 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.57% during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025. The national average price is 9196 CNY/ton, down by 182 CNY/ton [1]. - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw the following prices: 553 at 8764 CNY/ton (down 438 CNY/ton), 441 at 9174 CNY/ton (down 178 CNY/ton), and 421 at 9875 CNY/ton (down 97 CNY/ton) [1][3]. - The FOB price decreased by 30 USD/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, production in northern regions remains stable, with a slight increase in large factory operations. Southern regions are experiencing increased output due to the rainy season and new capacity coming online [1]. - Demand from downstream sectors is slightly increasing, with higher operating rates in organic silicon monomer plants and some recovery plans in multi-crystalline silicon production lines. Overall, the demand from the three major downstream sectors for industrial silicon is expected to increase slightly [1][2]. Market Sentiment - Despite the slight increase in demand, the overall market sentiment is cooling, and the industry is facing pressure on inventory consumption, making price increases difficult. The market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation [2].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7830.0 yuan, with a current price of 7690.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.26% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Haizheng Futures indicates that the industrial silicon market is showing signs of stabilization, although the fundamental factors do not support a price reversal due to increased production from Xinjiang and the southwest regions, leading to a rise in output [1] - Newhu Futures expects the industrial silicon main contract to maintain a bottom oscillation pattern, as the current demand from downstream sectors remains insufficient, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum alloys shows resilience, and the operating rate of organic silicon is recovering, which has led to a decrease in high inventory levels, primarily through warehouse receipts [1] - Despite the ongoing consumption of warehouse receipts, the overall inventory remains high, and supply is expected to continue increasing, while demand growth is limited, making sustained inventory reduction unlikely [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The industrial silicon market is characterized by high inventory levels and an oversupply expectation, with the current market conditions leading to a weak maintenance of spot prices [1] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards bearishness, with cost support remaining at lower levels, suggesting that the main contract will likely oscillate at the bottom, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The current demand for industrial silicon has not improved, and the inventory has not been effectively digested. In the short term, the silicon price will continue to fluctuate weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the overall weak situation of industrial silicon spot prices remained unchanged. Downstream buyers mostly purchased on demand, and there was no new demand. Currently, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon is between 8,700 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is between 9,600 - 10,100 yuan/ton. On the futures side, the closing price of the main contract si2507 of industrial silicon futures yesterday was 8,130, a decrease of 1.87%. The intraday trading volume was 16,616 lots, with a total of 155,000 lots and a turnover of 8.519 billion yuan [1] Supply Side - Recently, the prices of silica and silicon coal in the raw material segment have weakened, reducing the production cost of manufacturers. With the approaching of the wet season and the resumption of production of previously shut - down manufacturers, the output may increase slightly. Traders are inquiring about goods, and spot - futures traders are actively quoting. Some low - priced goods have had small - volume transactions. The production in the Gansu production area is relatively stable, and the output of 97 - silicon continues to remain low. The short - term start - up is difficult to improve. The operating rate of medium - frequency furnaces is low, and the prices are still at a low level, making it difficult for manufacturers to resume production [1] Demand Side - The polysilicon market continues to operate weakly. Currently, the terminal demand is significantly weak, and downstream procurement is becoming more cautious. The weekly trading volume remains flat, and the market stalemate remains unchanged. The price of organic silicon is temporarily stable. After some large monomer manufacturers made a tentative price increase before the festival, they sold goods with a small discount, and the number of inquiries has increased. The price of aluminum alloy ingots fluctuates. Large manufacturers have slightly reduced their inventories, and enterprises with low inventories are more willing to hold prices, making the market circulation slightly looser [1] Inventory - On May 19, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 66,097 lots, a single - day decrease of 287 lots. The total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [1]