Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has risen over 1.2%, supported by favorable domestic and international policies that bolster industrial metal prices [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, alongside a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail data, indicating persistent consumer resilience and supporting inflation expectations for industrial metal prices [1] - The market anticipates a 50.8% probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - China's GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, with cumulative export growth of 5.9% [1] Policy Environment - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are continuously releasing support, and with a generally warm policy tone both domestically and internationally, the pressure on prices during the off-season is limited [1] - It is expected that the peak season and interest rate cut expectations will boost industrial metal prices after mid-August [1] - The industrial metal prices are likely to operate on a strong trend in the second half of the year under a backdrop of domestic and international policy easing [1] ETF and Index Information - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metal mining index (931892), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. This index selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies [1] - The index exhibits strong cyclicality and resource attributes, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry chain [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Group 1 - The mining ETF (561330) rose over 1.2% on July 1, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a general increase in metal prices [1] - Copper prices have been affected by the U.S. Section 232 import investigation, prompting traders to ship large quantities of copper to the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs, resulting in a significant shortage of inventory in non-U.S. regions [1] - LME deliverable copper inventory has plummeted by approximately 80% this year, with the spot price reaching a premium of $300/ton over three-month futures, the highest since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Aluminum prices have been impacted by supply issues from the Guinea bauxite mines, highlighting the vulnerability of the industrial chain, while LME aluminum inventory continues to deplete [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector has seen a year-on-year profit increase of 7.2%, significantly supporting industrial profits, with the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry experiencing a profit growth of 9.8% [1] - Current economic resilience supports a strong fluctuation in basic metal prices, although there are concerns regarding the impact of tariff policies and geopolitical factors on supply and demand [1] Group 3 - The mining ETF tracks the non-ferrous mining index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting major listed companies in the non-ferrous metal mining sector from the A-share market as index samples [1] - This index comprehensively reflects the overall performance of China's non-ferrous metal mining industry, characterized by significant cyclicality and resource attributes, providing effective investment targets for investors focusing on resource stocks [1]