Core Viewpoint - The performance of the non-ferrous metals sector remains mixed, with significant movements in stock prices and ongoing policy changes affecting supply dynamics in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF showed weak performance, with a decline of 3.1% and a trading volume of 1.21 billion yuan, while the fund's latest scale is 4.83 billion yuan [1]. - Silver stocks performed exceptionally well, with a notable increase, while companies like Western Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayou Cobalt experienced declines of 8.27%, 6.98%, and 6.66% respectively [1]. Group 2: Policy and Supply Dynamics - The Trump administration is discussing investments in critical metals companies, particularly concerning Greenland's largest rare earth project [1]. - The Ministry of Commerce has implemented export controls on rare earth-related technologies, tightening supply policies and maintaining strong price trends in the rare earth sector [2]. - Western Securities predicts that the supply of secondary resource recycling will reach 27% by 2025, indicating a fully controlled supply side with limited potential for sudden increases [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with supply constraints from major copper producers due to safety incidents in Indonesia, contributing to rising prices for copper and aluminum [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metals index include major players such as Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continued upward trend in non-ferrous metal stocks, with specific companies like China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Jiangxi Copper, and Luoyang Molybdenum showing significant price increases [1] - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose by 3.1%, aligning with market expectations and strengthening bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Citic Securities predicts that the U.S. overall CPI growth rate may hover around 3% in the coming months, maintaining the forecast of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities reports that expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising, which could lead to marginal liquidity easing and pressure on the U.S. dollar index, benefiting industrial metal prices [1] - The domestic manufacturing PMI slightly improved by 0.1 percentage points to 49.49% in August, indicating a marginal recovery in economic activity [1] - As the traditional seasonal transition occurs, downstream processing enterprises are seeing a rise in operating rates, while the supply side faces challenges from concentrated maintenance at smelting plants and policy adjustments, potentially leading to a decrease in production [1]

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has risen over 1.2%, supported by favorable domestic and international policies that bolster industrial metal prices [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, alongside a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail data, indicating persistent consumer resilience and supporting inflation expectations for industrial metal prices [1] - The market anticipates a 50.8% probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - China's GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, with cumulative export growth of 5.9% [1] Policy Environment - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are continuously releasing support, and with a generally warm policy tone both domestically and internationally, the pressure on prices during the off-season is limited [1] - It is expected that the peak season and interest rate cut expectations will boost industrial metal prices after mid-August [1] - The industrial metal prices are likely to operate on a strong trend in the second half of the year under a backdrop of domestic and international policy easing [1] ETF and Index Information - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metal mining index (931892), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. This index selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies [1] - The index exhibits strong cyclicality and resource attributes, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry chain [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Group 1 - The mining ETF (561330) rose over 1.2% on July 1, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a general increase in metal prices [1] - Copper prices have been affected by the U.S. Section 232 import investigation, prompting traders to ship large quantities of copper to the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs, resulting in a significant shortage of inventory in non-U.S. regions [1] - LME deliverable copper inventory has plummeted by approximately 80% this year, with the spot price reaching a premium of $300/ton over three-month futures, the highest since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Aluminum prices have been impacted by supply issues from the Guinea bauxite mines, highlighting the vulnerability of the industrial chain, while LME aluminum inventory continues to deplete [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector has seen a year-on-year profit increase of 7.2%, significantly supporting industrial profits, with the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry experiencing a profit growth of 9.8% [1] - Current economic resilience supports a strong fluctuation in basic metal prices, although there are concerns regarding the impact of tariff policies and geopolitical factors on supply and demand [1] Group 3 - The mining ETF tracks the non-ferrous mining index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting major listed companies in the non-ferrous metal mining sector from the A-share market as index samples [1] - This index comprehensively reflects the overall performance of China's non-ferrous metal mining industry, characterized by significant cyclicality and resource attributes, providing effective investment targets for investors focusing on resource stocks [1]