来源：市场资讯 （来源：有色龙头159876） 10月10日，截至11时06分，有色龙头ETF盘中表现疲软，场内价格现跌3.1%，成交额为1.21亿元，基金 最新规模为4.83亿元。 西部证券指出，稀土出口管制政策持续强化，新增对二次资源回收利用的管控，预计2025年二次回收供 给占比将达27%，供给端已完全管控，难以出现突发增量；技术出口限制切断海外企业通过中国技术人 员扩产的可能。政策全面管控下，稀土供给端扰动频发，金属板块有望实现多重共振。 申万宏源证券指出，有色金属行业景气度维持高位，工业金属方面，9月世界铜矿巨头因印尼矿山安全 事件部分停产，供给约束预期叠加弱美元环境，铜铝等工业金属价格延续上行。稀土方面，商务部对稀 土相关技术实施出口管制，供给政策继续收紧，价格延续强势。 有色龙头ETF（$华宝中证有色金属ETF$）被动跟踪中证有色指数，该指数前十大权重股分别为紫金矿 业、北方稀土、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、山东黄金、赣锋锂业、中国铝业、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、天齐锂 业。 数据来源于沪深交易所、公开资料等。 风险提示：以上产品由基金管理人发行与管理，代销机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理责任。投 资人应 ...

消息面上，美国8月CPI同比增长2.9%，8月核心CPI同比增长3.1%，大体符合预期，强化了市场对美联 储降息的押注。中信证券研报称，未来数月美国总体CPI同比增速可能将在3%附近徘徊，维持美联储年 内将连续降息三次各25bps的预测，降息交易应该是近期比较明朗的主线。 智通财经APP获悉，有色股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，中国铝业(02600)涨5.77%，报7.51港元；中国宏 桥(01378)涨4.78%，报26.28港元；江西铜业股份(00358)涨3.97%，报26.18港元；洛阳钼业(03993)涨 3.39%，报13.12港元。 银河证券发布研报称，美联储9月降息的预期升温，流动性边际宽松与对美元指数的压制，利好工业金 属商品价格。基本面看，国内8月制造业PMI小幅回升0.1pct至49.49%，景气度已有边际改善。在当前传 统淡旺季转换之际，下游加工企业开工率有所回升，而供应端面临冶炼厂集中检修、政策调整等因素影 响，产量释放或环比下降，工业金属社会库存去化有望加速，或催化工业金属价格走强。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has risen over 1.2%, supported by favorable domestic and international policies that bolster industrial metal prices [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, alongside a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail data, indicating persistent consumer resilience and supporting inflation expectations for industrial metal prices [1] - The market anticipates a 50.8% probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - China's GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, with cumulative export growth of 5.9% [1] Policy Environment - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are continuously releasing support, and with a generally warm policy tone both domestically and internationally, the pressure on prices during the off-season is limited [1] - It is expected that the peak season and interest rate cut expectations will boost industrial metal prices after mid-August [1] - The industrial metal prices are likely to operate on a strong trend in the second half of the year under a backdrop of domestic and international policy easing [1] ETF and Index Information - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metal mining index (931892), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. This index selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies [1] - The index exhibits strong cyclicality and resource attributes, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry chain [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Group 1 - The mining ETF (561330) rose over 1.2% on July 1, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a general increase in metal prices [1] - Copper prices have been affected by the U.S. Section 232 import investigation, prompting traders to ship large quantities of copper to the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs, resulting in a significant shortage of inventory in non-U.S. regions [1] - LME deliverable copper inventory has plummeted by approximately 80% this year, with the spot price reaching a premium of $300/ton over three-month futures, the highest since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Aluminum prices have been impacted by supply issues from the Guinea bauxite mines, highlighting the vulnerability of the industrial chain, while LME aluminum inventory continues to deplete [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector has seen a year-on-year profit increase of 7.2%, significantly supporting industrial profits, with the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry experiencing a profit growth of 9.8% [1] - Current economic resilience supports a strong fluctuation in basic metal prices, although there are concerns regarding the impact of tariff policies and geopolitical factors on supply and demand [1] Group 3 - The mining ETF tracks the non-ferrous mining index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting major listed companies in the non-ferrous metal mining sector from the A-share market as index samples [1] - This index comprehensively reflects the overall performance of China's non-ferrous metal mining industry, characterized by significant cyclicality and resource attributes, providing effective investment targets for investors focusing on resource stocks [1]