智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，9月经济总体平稳运行，内需在"金九银十"旺季的带动下边 际回暖，但各行业表现冷热不均。供给侧治理与产业升级先行见效，对应上游资源品与新兴制造业、高 端装备制造业景气度先行占优；需求侧刺激与消费信心修复滞后使得传统原材料、消费板块"旺季不 旺"。展望后续，若财政支出加速、更多稳地产&促消费的需求侧配套支持政策能够落地，则传统原材 料、消费板块景气度有望回暖，行业间分化格局趋于收敛。反之，上游资源品阶段性占优的格局可能持 续。与此同时，受益于国内产业升级、海外制造业修复的制造业方向有望维持较高景气。 国金证券主要观点如下： 9月行业信息总结 回顾9月产销旺季中各行业景气度的变动，整体上旺季氛围仍在，行业间表现分化。其中，上游资源 品、中游新兴&高端设备制造业，旺季成色较浓。相较而言，上游原材料、下游消费板块旺季成色不 足。具体来看：1）上游资源与原材料行业——①上游资源品："反内卷"政策推进与供给约束下煤炭、 工业金属旺季供给收缩、需求增加，价格延续上行，旺季成色最浓。②上游原材料：钢铁、建材在传统 投资链条景气度低位，旺季改善有限。2）中游制造环节——新兴制造业、高端装备 ...

消息面上，9月28日，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，其中提到，2025—2026年，有色金属行业增加值年均增长5%左右，十种有色金属产量年均增 长1.5%左右，铜、铝、锂等国内资源开发取得积极进展。国海证券认为，短期来看，美联储如期降 息，且仍有进一步降息预期；有色金属行业稳增长工作方案出台，提振行业情绪。下游铝加工环节开工 率仍在持续回升中，库存拐点基本出现，关注"金九银十"旺季机会。民生证券指出，美联储降息落地， 商品供给干扰频发，伴随美国财政货币双宽松，叠加国内"金九银十"旺季需求，工业金属价格有望继续 上行。 有色股早盘活跃，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)涨6.01%，报39.5港元；中铝国际（601068） (02068)涨4.41%，报2.37港元；招金矿业(01818)涨4.02%，报30.52港元；洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)涨 3.44%，报14.45港元；中国铝业（601600）(02600)涨3.97%，报7.85港元；江西铜业（600362）股份 (00358)涨2.45%，报27.6港元。 ...

Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales show marginal improvement, with transaction area in 30 major cities increasing by 20.3% year-on-year. First-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities saw increases of 68.8%, 21.7%, and a decrease of 19.9% respectively [2] - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 1.0% year-on-year during the week of September 8-14, 2025, indicating a slowdown in the price war in the car market [2] - Service consumption shows signs of recovery, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 1.3% month-on-month and movie box office revenue increasing by 364.6% month-on-month and 149.0% year-on-year due to the release of new films [2] Group 2: Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand shows slight improvement, with policies supporting steel growth leading to small price increases in steel and glass, while cement prices have stabilized [3] - Manufacturing sector shows overall improvement in operating rates, particularly in the automotive and chemical industries, with stable hiring intentions among companies [3] Group 3: Upstream Resources - Coal prices have risen by 3.5% month-on-month due to tight supply and pre-holiday stockpiling demands [3] - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to a hawkish stance from U.S. Federal Reserve officials following a rate cut, combined with weak domestic downstream demand [3] Group 4: Human Flow and Logistics - Long-distance passenger transport demand has slightly improved, with an increase in air transport demand month-on-month [3] - National highway freight truck traffic and railway freight volume increased by 1.9% and 0.2% respectively, indicating a recovery in logistics [3] - Dry bulk shipping prices continue to rise due to increased demand for bulk commodity transport in the Northern Hemisphere's autumn season [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the resumption of rate cuts that had been paused since December of the previous year [1][2] - The decision aligns with market expectations, and there are indications that further rate cuts may occur later in the year, with projections suggesting two additional cuts [2][3] Group 2: Impact on Global Assets - The rate cut is expected to lead to a downward trend in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, which will positively impact gold and overseas assets [4][5] - Gold prices are likely to benefit from lower real interest rates and a weakening dollar, while the stock market, particularly technology stocks, may see increased inflows from foreign investments [5][6] Group 3: A-shares and Bond Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, particularly benefiting technology growth sectors due to domestic economic resilience and a loose liquidity environment [7] - The bond market is viewed as having medium to long-term investment value, with expectations of increased foreign investment in Chinese bonds as the Fed's rate cut alleviates pressure on the China-US interest rate differential [8]

美联储即将迎来议息会议，市场预测美联储降息的概率很高，目前最可能出现降息25个基点和50个基点 的情况。假如美联储继续选择不降息，或者宣布降息75个基点，均属于超出预期的举措。但是，结合机 构的推测，今年9月美联储降息25个基点，可能是大概率的事情。 去年9月，美联储启动了一轮降息周期，但在短短三个月左右的时间里，美联储累计降息了100个基点。 在此之后，美联储一直保持谨慎观望的态度，一直没有重启降息的周期。 在今年8月非农数据远低于市场预期以及失业率保持高企的状态下，美联储很可能会在9月份降息，并启 动新一轮的降息周期。 针对这一次美联储的降息预期，市场有几个关注点。 第一个关注点，美联储到底是采取预防式降息还是衰退式降息。 第二个关注点，美联储首次降息的力度有多大。 第三个关注点，美联储此次降息周期会延续多长时间。 美联储降息属于预防式降息还是衰退式降息，两者之间的区别是比较大的。 对股票市场而言，可能会因美联储降息发生分化的现象。例如，对成长股上市公司来说，假如美联储开 启新一轮降息周期，而且倾向于预防式降息的性质，那么将会进一步推动价格的上涨，成长股的估值定 价体系会得到进一步提升。对绩优股、蓝筹股而 ...

A 基本面：经济数据为美联储降息提供充分理由 近期公布的美国经济指标显示，美国劳动力市场状况不容乐观。8月，美国非农就业人数仅增加2.2万人，远低于市场预期的7.5万人；失业率升至4.3%，创 下近4年以来的新高。更令市场警觉的是，非农就业数据遭遇了2000年以来的最大幅度下修，过去一年累计下修幅度高达91.1万人，平均每月少增加近7.6万 个岗位，其中，休闲酒店、商业服务和零售业受到的冲击尤为严重，成为重灾区。这一系列数据不仅凸显出美国劳动力市场的疲态，更为美联储降息提供了 最为直接且有力的经济依据。 除就业市场显著放缓外，通胀数据的表现也为美联储货币政策转向提供了支撑。美国8月CPI同比上升2.9%，环比上升0.4%；核心CPI同比上升3.1%、环比上 升0.3%，各项数据均基本符合预期。这表明通胀虽未进一步恶化，但仍具有一定黏性，尚未回归到美联储设定的2%的目标水平。值得注意的是，PPI数据已 进入通缩区间。此外，美国9月6日当周初申请失业金人数激增至26.3万人，创下近4年来新高，这进一步加剧了市场对美国经济增长放缓的担忧。 近期，美国财政部长贝森特与多位美联储主席的热门候选人，如劳伦斯·林赛（Law ...

消息面上，美国8月CPI同比增长2.9%，8月核心CPI同比增长3.1%，大体符合预期，强化了市场对美联 储降息的押注。中信证券研报称，未来数月美国总体CPI同比增速可能将在3%附近徘徊，维持美联储年 内将连续降息三次各25bps的预测，降息交易应该是近期比较明朗的主线。 智通财经APP获悉，有色股延续近期涨势，截至发稿，中国铝业(02600)涨5.77%，报7.51港元；中国宏 桥(01378)涨4.78%，报26.28港元；江西铜业股份(00358)涨3.97%，报26.18港元；洛阳钼业(03993)涨 3.39%，报13.12港元。 银河证券发布研报称，美联储9月降息的预期升温，流动性边际宽松与对美元指数的压制，利好工业金 属商品价格。基本面看，国内8月制造业PMI小幅回升0.1pct至49.49%，景气度已有边际改善。在当前传 统淡旺季转换之际，下游加工企业开工率有所回升，而供应端面临冶炼厂集中检修、政策调整等因素影 响，产量释放或环比下降，工业金属社会库存去化有望加速，或催化工业金属价格走强。 ...

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks continue their recent upward trend, with China Aluminum (601600) rising by 5.77% to HKD 7.51, China Hongqiao (01378) up by 4.78% to HKD 26.28, Jiangxi Copper (600362) increasing by 3.97% to HKD 26.18, and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) gaining 3.39% to HKD 13.12 [1] - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, aligning with expectations and strengthening market bets on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Citic Securities predicts that the U.S. overall CPI growth rate may hover around 3% in the coming months, maintaining the forecast of three consecutive 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities reports that expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising, which could lead to marginal liquidity easing and pressure on the U.S. dollar index, benefiting industrial metal prices [1] - In terms of fundamentals, China's manufacturing PMI slightly improved by 0.1 percentage points to 49.49% in August, indicating marginal recovery in economic activity [1] - As the traditional peak and off-peak seasons transition, downstream processing enterprises are seeing a recovery in operating rates, while the supply side faces challenges from concentrated maintenance at smelting plants and policy adjustments, potentially leading to a decrease in production and accelerated destocking of industrial metal inventories [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a marginal improvement in real estate sales, while durable goods consumption shows signs of weakness, indicating a mixed economic outlook in various sectors [2][4]. Group 1: Real Estate and Construction - New home sales in major cities have shown a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with first-tier cities experiencing a decline of 6.8%, while second and third-tier cities saw increases of 8.2% and 11.4% respectively [5]. - Despite the improvement in real estate sales, the impact on construction starts remains weak, and infrastructure demand continues to be subdued, leading to a decline in demand for construction materials [2][4]. Group 2: Consumer Durables - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 4.6% year-on-year in August 2025, but the growth rate has significantly slowed down due to a high base from the previous year [5]. - The service consumption sector has shown a decline, with a notable drop in movie box office revenues by 51% week-on-week during the back-to-school period [5]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Technology - The construction demand remains weak, affecting the construction industry, while steel prices have slightly increased due to environmental production limits, and cement prices continue to decline [6]. - Global semiconductor sales have seen a robust year-on-year growth of 20.6% in July 2025, driven by strong demand in AI capital expenditures [6]. Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand has decreased significantly week-on-week, with a 17.6% drop in the migration scale index, although it remains up 5% year-on-year [7]. - Freight logistics have also shown a decline, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 1.0% and 1.2% respectively week-on-week [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global fiscal landscape, particularly focusing on developed economies such as the United States, Japan, Germany, and the European Union. Core Insights and Arguments - Political turbulence in multiple countries is closely linked to fiscal policies, with governments facing pressure to adjust their fiscal strategies due to declining public support [1][3] - The long-term and ultra-long-term interest rates in developed economies have risen significantly, indicating market pricing for potential fiscal expansion [1][4] - A collective fiscal expansion across multiple economies is anticipated in 2026, with significant stimulus measures expected from the US, Japan, Germany, and the EU [1][6] - The trend of de-globalization is increasing inflationary pressures and limiting monetary easing, making large-scale fiscal expansion a necessary response to economic downturns [1][7] - Political polarization poses challenges to timely implementation of fiscal policies, potentially destabilizing the bond market and reducing the effectiveness of fiscal expansion [1][8][9] - Structural issues in developed economies, such as Japan's aging population and Europe's investment shortfalls, limit the effectiveness of fiscal policies [1][10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The US faces rapidly rising interest expenditures, which could strain fiscal sustainability, while Europe and Japan are constrained by mandatory social security expenditures [2][11] - The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus may be compromised by political polarization and the inability to convert fiscal measures into effective economic growth [1][8] - Gold is highlighted as a reliable safe-haven asset amid rising inflation concerns and fiscal expansion, with industrial metals also presenting potential investment opportunities in the near future [1][12]