宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 —— 美伊冲突，影响几何？ 美伊冲突，影响几何？ 研究结论 风险提示 地缘局势存在不断变化的可能，美伊冲突的烈度与时长存在不确定性。 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | --- | --- | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 刘姜枫 | 执业证书编号：S0860526010002 | | | liujiangfeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S086052 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月26日电（左元）春节假期期间，受美伊冲突影响，国际油价表现强势。市场普遍认为，一旦地缘扰动消退，在供应压力下油价大概率重 归跌势。对于"大宗商品之王"的普遍看跌情绪明显有悖于对2026年大宗商品的普遍乐观看法，因原油对于能源化工乃至很多农产品都具有举足轻重的影响 力。不少投资者因看好2026年商品走势，近期布局了油气、化工类商品或股票，"若地缘扰动消退，油价能否保持坚挺"成为更受关注的问题。 地缘局势持续紧张 近期，中东局势持续紧张。据以色列媒体报道，11架美军F-22战斗机24日飞抵以南部一处空军基地。前一天，美国海军"福特"号航空母舰现身东地中海区 域的希腊克里特岛进行补给，美军在中东地区即将完成"双航母"部署。 美伊定于26日在瑞士日内瓦举行新一轮谈判。与此同时，媒体报道美国总统特朗普有意对伊朗先进行"有限打击"，然后视情升级军事行动规模。 据新华社报道，就美国对伊军事行动，美国智库大西洋理事会中东项目高级主任威廉·韦克斯勒分析了三种可能的打击模式。 一是"有限打击"，短期打击伊朗军方和安全力量重要目标，包括伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队和关键基础设施等，以建立威慑。 二是"长期削弱 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in travel during the Spring Festival, with total passenger flow expected to reach 9.5 billion, marking a historical high. Self-driving remains the dominant mode of transport, with a daily average of 261 million trips, accounting for nearly 85% of total travel [13][35] - The report indicates a recovery in consumer spending, particularly in the retail and tourism sectors, driven by long holiday periods, consumption vouchers, and promotional events. Key retail and catering enterprises saw a daily average sales increase of 5.7% during the Spring Festival [25][30] - The film box office during the Spring Festival saw a significant decline, with revenues dropping to 5.752 billion, the lowest since 2018, and average ticket prices also decreased [31][34] Information Technology Industry - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index showed upward trends, with DRAM prices increasing and MLCC revenues rising significantly in January [4][7] - The report notes a general increase in prices across the semiconductor sector, with NAND index rising by 5.58% [8] Midstream Manufacturing - Prices in the new energy supply chain have generally increased, particularly for lithium raw materials, while sales growth in major engineering machinery companies showed mixed results [4][7] - The report mentions a decrease in the year-on-year growth rate of cargo throughput at Chinese ports, indicating a potential slowdown in midstream manufacturing activity [4][7] Consumer Demand - The report observes an increase in sugar prices, while pork prices have declined. The average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.17% [4][7] - The average ticket price for movies decreased by 5.9%, reflecting a broader trend of reduced consumer spending in the entertainment sector [31][34] Resource Products - The report indicates a decline in rebar prices, while coal prices remained stable. Brent crude oil prices increased, and the chemical product price index showed a general upward trend [4][7] - Industrial metal prices have generally risen, with copper, tin, zinc, cobalt, nickel, and aluminum prices increasing, while inventories for most metals have decreased [4][7] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The report highlights a net injection in the money market, with SHIBOR rates rising. A decrease in A-share turnover and daily transaction volume was noted [4][7] - The report indicates a decline in land transaction premium rates and a decrease in the area of commercial housing sold [4][7] Public Utilities - The report notes a decrease in natural gas ex-factory prices, while electricity generation growth rates have slowed [4][7]

"在金属和矿产领域，最新一轮的囤积行为最为明显，"查塔姆研究所高级研究员帕特里克·施罗德表 示。他指出，各国政府正寻求降低对集中供应链和出口管制的依赖。 一场确保关键矿产资源的新竞赛正在全球经济舞台上展开。 智通财经APP了解到，从美国拟议的120亿美元"保险库项目"战略储备，到亚洲和欧盟不断扩充的缓冲 库存，各国政府正积极采取行动，以确保对那些日益被视为关乎国家安全和产业政策的金属矿产的获 取。 在美国，官员们近期公布了一项名为"保险库项目"的战略矿产储备计划，规模约120亿美元。该计划旨 在通过建立稀土及其他对电气化、国防和先进制造业至关重要的金属库存，增强美国工业的供应链韧 性。 "保险库项目"是对其他倡议的补充，例如旨在协调关键矿产政策定价和项目的"资源地缘战略参与论 坛"伙伴关系，以及侧重于保护AI相关供应链的"硅砂计划"。 澳大利亚今年1月宣布计划通过一项8亿美元的战略关键矿产储备，正式确立国家支持的囤积战略，优先 考虑锑、镓和稀土元素。 欧盟也在推进其"RESourceEU"战略下的关键原材料联合储备计划。本月早些时候知情人士消息称，预 计意大利、法国和德国将牵头这项工作。 就在上周末，印度和巴 ...

市场基调之变：从政策托底到基本面兑现 "当前商品市场最核心的特征，是'万物通胀'背景下的结构分化与轮动加速。"薛鹤翔开门见山地表示，站在百年维度，通胀回升、中美经济共振以及AI应 用的蓬勃兴起，共同推动商品市场发生深刻变革。曾经单一的品种行情逐渐退出舞台，取而代之的是"金融属性—产业属性"双轮驱动的全新格局。黄金、 工业金属、新能源等品种价格轮番领涨，芝商所保证金的"高频动态调整"成为市场常态，投资者对尾部风险的定价愈发敏感。 回顾2025年，市场呈现出"商品轮动启动、政策持续发力"的鲜明特征，政策托底与预期先行成为主导，商品价格更多地反映稳增长政策与流动性宽松带来 的红利。然而，步入2026年，市场基调迎来本质转变。"2026年是基本面兑现、轮动深化的一年，市场驱动力从'政策驱动'全面转向'供给稀缺+新兴需 求'驱动。"薛鹤翔认为，黄金、工业金属的趋势性行情将延续，特别是铂、锡等品种异军突起，成为新的市场主线。与此同时，保证金的高频调整倒逼市 场"去杠杆"，波动与风控一跃成为市场核心矛盾，投资者必须适应这一全新节奏。 轮动逻辑解码：三重共振催生独特路径 薛鹤翔表示，当前商品市场已完成从黄金到工业金属再到新能 ...

Strategy Research - The macroeconomic landscape shows a divergence in performance, with strong demand for technology hardware driven by AI infrastructure investment, while chemical prices remain robust due to supply constraints [2][3] - High-end liquor prices are stabilizing, indicating some recovery in consumer spending, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [3][4] Food and Beverage Research - The company Sobo Protein is expected to maintain rapid profit growth in Q4 2025, with projected net profit for 2025 ranging from 178 to 191 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.89% to 57.62% [8][36] - The company is focusing on high-end manufacturing and energy optimization, which is expected to enhance profitability [37] Automotive Research - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to reach a value of 50 billion yuan, with hardware cost reductions and software iterations driving demand [11][29] - The commercial viability of Robotaxi is approaching a critical point, with both L2 and L4 participants accelerating market penetration [11][29] Consumer Sector - The price of high-end liquor, such as Moutai, has increased by 3.9% for original and 3.0% for bulk, likely due to pre-holiday gifting demand [4][16] - The real estate market remains weak, with significant declines in transaction volumes across major cities, although policies to stabilize the market are being implemented [4][16] Technology and Manufacturing - The price of DRAM storage has shown signs of stabilization, with a slight decrease in DDR4 prices and a slight increase in DDR5 prices, while overall prices remain high [5][17] - Chemical prices continue to be strong, with PX prices increasing by 5.2% [5][17] Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand remains stable ahead of the holiday season, with a slight increase in logistics demand reflected in highway and rail freight volumes [18] - Shipping rates have shown mixed trends, with domestic port throughput increasing, indicating a potential recovery in export activity [18] Industry Tracking: Machinery - The company Hangzhou Steam Turbine has signed its first commercial contract for a self-developed gas turbine, marking a significant step towards industrial application [19][20] - The company is also advancing its "B to A" strategy to enhance financing channels for high-investment R&D projects [21] Industry Research: Pharmaceuticals - The total market value of publicly held pharmaceutical stocks decreased from 397.7 billion to 316.1 billion yuan, indicating a decline in investor confidence [23][24] - The chemical preparation sector remains the largest segment within pharmaceutical holdings, accounting for 37.5% of total holdings [23] Industry Research: Information Technology - The median profit growth for computer companies is significantly higher than revenue growth, indicating a trend of improving profitability despite stagnant sales [25][26] - A notable number of companies are experiencing significant profit declines, highlighting a polarized performance within the sector [26][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the continuation of technology and resource prosperity, indicating a potential turning point for domestic demand, driven by AI infrastructure investment and signs of recovery in consumer spending [2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Global technology hardware demand remains strong, with a temporary slowdown in storage chip price increases, yet prices remain high [2]. - Resource prices are experiencing localized increases, particularly in chemical products with significant supply constraints, while non-ferrous metal supply remains tight [2]. - Consumer recovery shows some positive signs, with high-end liquor prices stabilizing and progress in real estate policies, suggesting a potential stabilization in domestic demand [2]. Group 2: Downstream Consumption - High-end liquor prices, such as Moutai, have increased by 3.9% for original and 3.0% for bulk, likely due to pre-Spring Festival gifting demand [3]. - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a drop of 41.6% [3]. - Retail sales of passenger cars fell by 22.0% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the durable goods sector [3]. Group 3: Technology & Manufacturing - Storage price increases have slowed, with DRAM prices showing mixed trends; DDR4 prices decreased by 1.3% while DDR5 prices increased by 1.4% [4]. - Chemical product prices remain strong, with PX and PTA prices increasing by 5.2% and decreasing by 0.4%, respectively [4]. - Coal prices rose by 1.0% due to a brief cold snap, while industrial metal prices experienced significant volatility influenced by changes in Federal Reserve leadership [4]. Group 4: Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand remained stable before the holiday, with a slight decrease of 0.2% in major cities [5]. - Freight logistics demand increased, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume rising by 4.8% and 2.3% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - Port throughput showed a rebound, indicating a potential recovery in export activity [5].

Economic Growth and Investment - The GDP growth for the year 2025 is projected at 5.0%, achieving the annual economic growth target, characterized by a "high first, low second" structure and stronger external demand compared to internal demand [2] - In December 2025, industrial production accelerated, particularly in new momentum sectors such as pharmaceuticals, specialized equipment, and computer communications [2] - Fixed asset investment continued to decline throughout 2025, recording negative growth, but is expected to rebound in 2026 due to new policy financial tools and increased special bond investments [2] Consumer and Price Trends - In December, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8%, reaching the highest level since March 2023, primarily driven by increased food prices [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also turned positive, supported by improved supply-demand order from "anti-involution" policies and rising commodity prices [3] - Retail sales growth slowed to a new low for 2023, but service consumption showed improvement, indicating a potential bottoming out of certain consumer goods [2][3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal revenue saw a significant decline at year-end, with major tax categories dropping, while fiscal expenditure decreased at a slower rate [3] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain at a high level of 4.0%, ensuring that expenditure efforts will not diminish [3] - The central bank announced a reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and expanded their scope, indicating ongoing targeted support for key sectors [3] External Environment and Market Trends - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% in January, aligning with expectations, while continuing its asset purchase program [4] - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally in January, with emerging markets performing particularly well, and A-share indices all rising [4] - The bond market is expected to remain stable under conditions of liquidity easing and policy support, with certain bonds still holding investment value [5]

格隆汇2月2日｜周一商品市场全面下滑，黄金、白银、原油和工业金属领跌。CBA商品策略师Vivek Dhar表示："市场决定在抛售美股的同时抛售贵金属，这表明投资者认为沃什更具鹰派色彩。此外，美 元走强也给贵金属及包括原油和基数金属在内的其他大宗商品带来了压力。"不过，他仍坚持第四季度 金价达到6000美元的预测。亚洲股市跟随美股期货大幅走低，贵金属市场的混乱抛售为这个充斥着公司 财报、央行会议和经济数据的周初增添了紧张气氛。 Dhar表示："关键问题在于这标志着商品价格结构 性下跌的开始，还是仅仅是一次回调。我们认为这是一次调整和买入机会，而非基本面的转变。" MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 格隆汇2月2日｜周一商品市场全面下滑，黄金、白银、原油和工业金属领跌。CBA商品策略师Vivek Dhar表示："市场决定在抛售美股的同时抛售贵金属，这表明投资者认为沃什更具鹰派色彩。此外，美 元走强也给贵金属及包括原油和基数金属在内的其他大宗商品带来了压力。"不过，他仍坚持第四季度 金价达到6000美元的预测。亚洲股市跟随美股期货大幅走低，贵金属市场的混乱抛售为这个充斥着 ...

Group 1: Price Trends and Historical Context - Historical price trends for commodities follow a sequence: precious metals, industrial metals, petrochemicals, and agricultural products, with significant bull markets occurring five times since the 1970s when prices increased by over 50%[9] - The typical price increase sequence is less than one quarter for precious metals, about two quarters for petrochemicals, and approximately one quarter for agricultural products[12] - In the current cycle, precious metals have surged ahead, while industrial metals, petrochemicals, and agricultural products have lagged behind[9] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current market is influenced by two main factors: domestic industrial transformation and global political changes, leading to a divergence in commodity performance[28] - Commodities closely tied to traditional industries, such as real estate, are expected to show weak performance despite policy support, as seen in the contrasting performance of tungsten-iron and iron[30] - Emerging economies are expected to drive future demand growth, with a decoupling from developed economies, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America[30] Group 3: Future Price Pathways - The current price increase is characterized by external factors rather than internal ones, focusing on two main lines: price increases driven by industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[43] - The industrialization of emerging economies is anticipated to sustain demand for industrial products, supported by China's technology and capital[43] - Geopolitical risks, including issues in Japan, the Middle East, and Latin America, are expected to impact commodity prices, particularly for imports like agricultural products and crude oil[44] Group 4: Investment Outlook and Risks - The report favors investment in the chemical and agricultural sectors due to their potential for price increases, while being conservative on commodities closely linked to the real estate sector[44] - Risks include market performance falling short of expectations, insufficient pricing of geopolitical risks, and potential underperformance in industry developments[45][46][47]