权益、商品、债市如何看？ 1月11日，在"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会"上，多位来自券商、资管、期货等机构的首席经济学 家围绕"资本市场与资产展望"展开讨论。在宏观环境、政策取向和市场结构持续变化的背景下，与会人 士普遍认为，未来一至三年中国资产配置的核心逻辑将从"总量博弈"转向"结构演进"，权益资产仍是中 长期主线，商品市场轮动深化，而债券资产在宽松预期与避险需求交织下，或迎来阶段性配置机会。 从制度改革到资产重估：慢牛逻辑正在形成 多位首席经济学家指出，过去两年资本市场制度改革的连续推进，正在改变中国资产定价的底层逻辑。 华西证券首席经济学家刘郁认为，新"国九条"、中长期资金入市、公募基金高质量发展以及保险资金风 险因子调整等一系列制度安排，已共同构建起"严把入口、畅通出口、鼓励回报、引导长期资金"的制度 框架。 在这一背景下，市场最重要的变化并非短期上涨幅度，而是"下限"的逐步确立。"相比判断指数高点， 更关键的是低点能否持续抬升，这将直接影响资本市场对中长期资金的吸引力。"刘郁指出，股指层面 的波动正在收敛，投资者对极端回撤的担忧有所缓解，这为长期资金持有权益资产提供了必要条件。 申万期货首席经 ...

以下文章来源于投资报 ，作者投资报 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 专注投资20年，欢迎关注我们的主号：六里投资报（ID：liulishidian） 来源 | 六里投资报 1月11日，著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，在2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会中，发表了以"展望 2026，持而盈之"为题的演讲。 洪灝在演讲中指出，美联储于1月继续降息是大概率事件。 他认为，当前美国短端流动性趋于紧张，回购利率甚 至能高于基准利率，迫使美联储持续扩表并降息。 与此同时，他提出美国远期通胀预期难以回落；如果美联储在通胀预期仍高时坚持降息，将削弱美元信用，推动 贵金属价格上涨。从趋势线来看，黄金处于一个相对来说公允的估值，4500左右。但是，在新的信用体系里，黄 金是一切估值的"锚"。至于目标价，洪灝表示"杯子有多深，目标就有多高"，白银显然也并没有走完，这与他此前 的观点也完全一致。虽然在银价冲上80美元时，他曾提示可以阶段性获利了结，但仍然看好其中期上涨空间，事 实上，白银在此后也出现不小的价格波动。他的全球流动性指标模型显示，全球流动性条件在不断上升，而流动 性指标领先基本面变化6-12个月。洪灝强调，在全 ...

在一轮康波周期中，大宗商品一般会出现 2 次超级周期：（1）康波繁荣期， 全球总需求扩张，驱动大宗商品 7-8 年的超级周期（类似 2000-2008 年）； （2）康波萧条期，主导国货币信用裂痕扩张，增强大宗商品货币属性，带 来 4 年左右的商品超级周期。本轮康波萧条期，美元信用裂痕扩张，地缘不 确定性加剧，全球泛滥的流动性正抱团黄金和工业金属等"安全资产"。 2、商品超级周期的轮动规律：黄金→工业金属→石油→农产品 复盘过去 3 轮康波萧条期，大宗商品超级周期均呈现出鲜明的轮动规律—— （1）黄金率先上涨。黄金天然是货币，康波萧条期主导国货币信用裂痕+全 球地缘不确定性加剧，会率先带来金价上涨；（2）工业金属紧随其后。康波 萧条期地缘不确定性加剧，也会带来主要大国的战略补库需求，工业金属也 会享受"安全溢价"；（3）石油涨价略有滞后。石油的供给端有较大的灵活 性，也受到地缘较大的扰动。康波萧条期油价上涨往往需要等待"地缘信号"； （4）农产品一般要等到油价上涨后，才会出现成本推动型的涨价。 3、油价一触即发：战略石油库存，已到历史低位 策略周报 康波的凝视：油价一触即发 策略周末谈（0111） 核心结论 ...

[Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：中观景气延续分化，元旦文旅景气显著增长，出入境需求增长亮眼；科技硬件、 化工/有色等周期资源品延续涨价；地产耐用品景气磨底。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 国泰海通晨报 2026 年 01 月 08 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 方奕(分析师) 021-38031658 fangyi2@gtht.com S0880520120005 陶前陈(研究助理) 0755-23976164 taoqianchen@gtht.com S0880125070014 张逸飞(分析师) 021-38038662 zhangyifei@gtht.com S0880524080008 策略观察：《元旦文旅景气增长，科技周期延续涨价》2026-01- 07 元旦文旅景气增长，科技周期延续涨价。上周（12.29-01.04）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1）元旦旅游出行景气同比改 ...

报告导读： 中观景气延续分化，受供给受限影响，化工 / 有色等资源品价格出现明显上 涨， AI 产业趋势下，电子产业景气偏强；旅游景气边际改善，内需消费复苏仍待观察。 周期资源品价格上涨，科技硬件景气延续。 上周（ 12.22-12.28 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）周期行业局部出现供需紧张，基础化工、电新原料 以及工业金属价格大幅上涨，主因供给受限，下游需求则表现较强。 2 ） AI 产业趋势延续，国内电子产业需求仍受到明显拉动，存储价格环比继续上涨， 11 月 PCB 出口增速延续高位。 3 ）服务消费景气边际改善，上海迪士尼拥挤度延续高位，受封关影响，海南旅游价格指数环比提升；年末生猪价格环比企 稳上涨。中央经济工作会议提出"深入实施提振消费专项行动"，展望 2026 ，消费在供给端和需求端的政策空间存在超预期可能。 下游消费：旅游景气延续高位，生猪价格上涨。 1 ）服务消费： 上海迪士尼乐园拥挤度指数环比 -0.2% ，同比 +29.4% ，游乐场拥挤度延续高位 ； 12.15-12.21 海南旅游价格指数环比 +2.5% ，封关带动海南旅游景气环比显著提升。 2 ）地产： 30 大中城市商 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is likely entering a "spring rally" phase, with the overall market represented by the Wind All A Index breaking through moving averages and expected to reach new highs. This is supported by increased trading volume despite the suspension of northbound capital transactions [4][7][13] - The technology growth sector is identified as a long-term market focus, with a K-shaped economic recovery in China favoring technology growth performance. Opportunities are anticipated in previously lagging areas such as AI applications and humanoid robots [4][7][12] - The report highlights the ongoing expansion in the non-ferrous metals market, with prices for gold, silver, and copper reaching historical highs. This is attributed to a combination of factors including a loosening of dollar liquidity and supply-demand tightness [12][13] Group 2 - The report suggests that the domestic commercial aerospace industry is expected to develop rapidly, supported by new regulations that favor commercial rocket enterprises and the anticipated growth of the market, which is projected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the non-ferrous metals sector for investment opportunities, particularly in strategic minor metals and industrial metals, as the market is currently in an expansion phase [12][13] - The report notes that monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, which supports a slow bull market in A-shares, with expectations of continued liquidity support for technology growth sectors [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates an improvement in economic conditions this week, particularly in the resource, midstream manufacturing, and information technology sectors [1] Resource Sector - Prices for metals, steel, and coal have mostly increased, with the national cement price index also rising [4] - Industrial metal prices have generally gone up, including copper, nickel, aluminum, tin, cobalt, and lead, while zinc prices have decreased [4] - Brent crude oil prices have risen, and the chemical product price index has shown a week-on-week increase, although most chemical prices have declined [4] Midstream Manufacturing - Prices for upstream products in the new energy vehicle sector have mostly increased, and the price index for photovoltaics has risen week-on-week [3] - The production of metal forming machine tools has shown an expanding year-on-year growth rate for November, while the production of packaging equipment has seen a larger decline [3] Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index, and DXI Index have all increased this week [2] - Prices for DDR5 and DDR4 DRAM memory have risen month-on-month, and the telecommunications main business revenue has shown an expanding year-on-year growth rate for November [2] Consumer Demand - Prices for fresh milk and pork have increased, while the wholesale price of piglets has decreased [3] - The average ticket revenue for films has risen, indicating a potential recovery in the entertainment sector [3] Financial and Real Estate - The net absorption in the money market has been noted, with a decline in A-share turnover rate and daily transaction volume [4] - The transaction area for commercial housing has increased, while the listing price index for second-hand houses has decreased [4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to surge, with the largest non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), reaching a new high, up over 0.6% in intraday trading on December 23 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Leading gold stocks such as Shandong Gold rose over 4%, while Yunnan Zinc Industry and Zhongjin Gold increased by more than 1% [3][11]. - The international prices of gold and silver have reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions that have increased demand for safe-haven assets [3][11]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 60% [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Recent strength in gold prices is attributed to the December interest rate cut, higher-than-expected unemployment rates, and lower-than-expected CPI, which have raised expectations for further rate cuts in January [4][12]. - The long-term outlook for gold prices is positive due to a low current gold reserve in China and a trend of central bank gold purchases [4][12]. Group 3: Future Trends in Non-Ferrous Metals - By 2025, metals such as copper, aluminum, cobalt, and lithium are expected to perform well, driven by three main factors: energy transition, AI revolution, and strategic reserves amid global competition [5][12]. - The duration of the super cycle for non-ferrous metals will depend on the recovery of the US dollar's credit, progress in strategic reserves, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [5][12]. - The upcoming "spring market" presents opportunities for investors, supported by a weak dollar cycle, policy backing, and industrial upgrades [5][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Huabao non-ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked funds is recommended to capture the beta performance across the non-ferrous metal sector [6][12]. - This ETF covers a wide range of industries including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps in risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [6][12].

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in A/H shares and industrial metals, a market weight in government bonds, and an underweight in the US dollar [1][15][16] - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, with a strong outlook for A/H shares due to the release of micro trading risks and the upcoming policy window as the economy enters the 14th Five-Year Plan [15][16] - The imbalance between financing demand and credit supply leads to a tactical market weight in government bonds, with expectations of improved liquidity supporting bond market sentiment [15][16][17] Group 2 - Demand expectations for industrial commodities are revised upwards, maintaining a tactical overweight view, particularly for copper, driven by construction, power grids, and electric vehicles [17][18] - The US dollar is under pressure due to adjustments in monetary policy and economic convergence, leading to a tactical underweight view on the dollar [17][18] - The report highlights that the Chinese capital market is in a cycle of valuation recovery and significant growth potential, with a favorable risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [15][16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is experiencing a bull market supported by strong fundamentals, particularly in manufacturing, despite concerns about the real estate sector and consumer spending [3][4][29]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Chinese market is the best-performing market globally this year, with expectations of profit-taking as the year ends [6][74]. - The stock market has diverged from real estate prices and ten-year government bond yields since January, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][31]. - The bull market is characterized by a significant wave structure over the past 30 years, with the fifth wave expected to be the most promising [6][70][73]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Industrial profits are expected to recover, which will positively influence the Shanghai Composite Index [7][58]. - The manufacturing sector remains robust, with the contribution of real estate to GDP declining from over 30% to around 10% [32][34]. - The new five-year plan emphasizes economic construction, a strong industrial system, and revitalizing consumption, with little focus on real estate [49][54]. Group 3: Inflation and Deflation - The long-term deflationary pressures in upstream industries are affecting downstream consumption, necessitating policy measures to alleviate these issues [8][14]. - The implementation of the Yarlung Tsangpo River project is seen as a significant step towards addressing overcapacity and price competition [12][16]. - There is an expectation that upstream price and consumption sentiment will begin to recover in the next 3 to 6 months [10][23]. Group 4: Commodity Trends - Gold has experienced a significant price increase, indicating potential historical changes in the market, with expectations for industrial metals to follow suit [35][47]. - The U.S. is projected to issue approximately $2.1 trillion to $2.2 trillion in debt by 2026, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [39][48]. - The current pricing of industrial metals reflects a pessimistic outlook similar to the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting a potential for recovery [43][46].