（来源：上银基金管理有限公司） 2025年11月19日，人工智能行业再迎利好冲击：英伟达三季报营收570亿美元，同比增长62%，其股价 盘后直线飙升，一度涨超6%。（注：数据来源Wind，2025/11/20） 亮眼财务数据让人工智能大势更加确定。然而，资本市场的历史一再告诉我们：即便是最真实的革命， 也往往伴随着阴影。 来源：市场投研资讯 当前，美股科技"七巨头"在标普500指数中的权重占比为47%，AI主题相关标的集中度已升至历史极 值。（注：数据来源iFinD，截至2025Q3） 2022-2025年美股七巨头在标普500指数中权重 注：数据来源iFinD，统计区间2022Q1-2025Q3，历史过往仅供参考，不预示未来表现。 价格高位之下，脆弱性随之上升。那么在海外科技股交易如此拥挤的当下，是否存在一个更底层、更能 抵御技术路径不确定性的投资机会？能与人工智能并列的主线究竟是什么？ 诚然，所有颠覆性技术的早期发展都带有风险投资的色彩，其最终形态和赢家充满不确定性。在1990年 代的互联网泡沫中，我们不知道最终胜出的会是亚马逊、谷歌，还是那些早已湮没无名的公司。这种不 确定性，让科技公司的技术路线充满了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities highlights a tightening supply-demand situation in the technology manufacturing sector, alongside a marginal improvement in consumer and travel sentiment [1][2]. Consumer Sector - Essential consumer goods retail showed a notable recovery in October, with beverage, grain and oil, and tobacco and alcohol retail sales increasing by 7.1%, 9.1%, and 4.1% year-on-year respectively, likely driven by the "Double Festival" and "Double Eleven" shopping events [3] - Real estate and durable goods continue to face pressure, with transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities down by 24.8% year-on-year, and significant declines in first, second, and third-tier cities [3] - Service consumption is improving, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 2.1% month-on-month and movie box office revenue increasing by 90.2% year-on-year due to new film releases [3] Technology & Manufacturing Sector - The electronic industry remains highly prosperous, with explosive growth in storage demand driven by AI, leading to continued price increases in memory chips [4] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing improved sentiment, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continuing to rise significantly [4] - Construction demand remains weak, with seasonal factors impacting demand for building materials, leading to a subdued price environment for steel and construction materials [4] Resource Sector - Coal prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with strong heating and electricity demand [5] - International metal prices have seen a slight increase, influenced by rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts [5] Logistics Sector - Air passenger transport has improved, with long-distance travel demand increasing by 3.7% month-on-month and 14.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in business travel [5] - Freight logistics also show improvement, with national highway truck traffic and railway freight volume increasing by 2.6% and 0.2% respectively [5] - However, shipping prices continue to decline, and port throughput has decreased, reflecting fluctuations in export demand [5]

Core Insights - The investment landscape is evolving with a focus on diversified asset allocation, particularly in the context of the upcoming "post-4000 point era" in A-shares, where investors are keen on identifying opportunities and risks in AI technology and other sectors [1] Fragment 1: New World Outline - The three main themes for 2023 are global cycle misalignment, AI technology revolution, and global capital reallocation, while 2024 will focus on the "exceptionalism" of the U.S. and weak domestic prices [2] - By 2025, the themes will shift to global order reconstruction, asset revaluation in China, deepening AI chains, and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2][3] - The market is experiencing a reconfiguration due to geopolitical shifts and the AI investment boom, which is expected to drive performance in sectors like optical modules [2] Fragment 2: AI Bubble Debate - The existence of a bubble in AI investments is complex; some level of speculation can drive technological advancement [6][8] - Key risks include the inability to convert capital expenditure into profit, excessive leverage, and tightening monetary policy [8] - Investors should focus on sectors directly benefiting from AI advancements and maintain a diversified approach to mitigate risks [8] Fragment 3: Macro Environment for 2026 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's "15th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for a balanced supply-demand dynamic and a focus on technology and industry [9] - The U.S. midterm elections may influence domestic policies, with a potential focus on growth and price stability [11] Fragment 4: Global Manufacturing Cycle - A potential upturn in the global manufacturing cycle is anticipated in 2026, following disruptions caused by tariffs [15] - The supportive environment for this cycle includes fiscal expansion and monetary policy coordination among major economies [15] Fragment 5: Capital Reallocation - The trend of "capital relocation" is significant, with a notable decrease in the ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization, indicating ongoing reallocation needs [18] - The current environment favors stable investment products like "fixed income+" and FOFs, which are gaining traction among cautious investors [20]

Economic Growth - The US economy is expected to show moderate growth in 2026, driven by continued technology investment from the AI boom and a recovery in traditional investment demand [1] - The Eurozone is likely to see a rebound in consumer spending as external trade shocks diminish, although industrial supply chain risks remain [1] - Japan's corporate sales growth is slowing, with business investment expected to maintain momentum but not accelerate significantly [1] Inflation - The US inflation rate is projected to experience slight fluctuations and moderate cooling, with tariff impacts diminishing and stable rental inflation [2] - The Eurozone has entered a healthy and moderate inflation environment, which is expected to continue into next year [2] - Japan's new cabinet's gasoline tax reforms are anticipated to suppress the apparent inflation rate, although demand-driven inflation may remain robust [2] Monetary Policy - The next Federal Reserve chair is expected to be between Waller and Hassett, with a potential 50bps rate cut early next year under Powell's leadership [3] - The European Central Bank is not expected to cut rates due to stable inflation, maintaining a deposit facility rate of 2% [3] - The Bank of Japan may raise rates by 25bps in the next quarter, maintaining a policy rate of 0.75% thereafter [3] Fiscal Policy - The effects of the US "Great Beautiful Act" are expected to manifest in early 2026, supporting overall consumption despite potential widening of wealth gaps [4] - The EU's fiscal stance is becoming neutral, characterized by continued defense expansion and restrained non-defense spending [4] - Japan's new Prime Minister Suga advocates for "responsible active fiscal policy," leading to moderate fiscal expansion [4] Asset Allocation - Market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of the US dollar may ease under Waller's leadership, impacting gold negatively and slightly increasing long-term US Treasury yields [5] - If Hassett is elected, the dollar may weaken, benefiting gold, while long-term Treasury yields could rise due to inflation expectations [5] - The overall outlook for US stocks remains positive, driven by the AI trend, while demand recovery is expected to boost gold and industrial metals [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current market logic is driven by liquidity contraction rather than risk aversion, primarily due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, which has led to a significant liquidity gap of $1.5 to $1.8 trillion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - Various asset classes have experienced notable pullbacks, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures falling below their 20-day moving averages, and gold dropping below 4000 [1]. - The U.S. Treasury yield has shown a steady decline, indicating a broader trend of liquidity contraction affecting both risk and safe-haven assets [1]. Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government shutdown is projected to create an annualized liquidity gap of $1.85 trillion, with a weekly absorption of $35.5 billion from the private sector [2]. - The shutdown is expected to reduce annualized revenue by $85 billion while cutting expenditures by $1.93 trillion, exacerbating the liquidity crunch [2]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - U.S. investment banks anticipate that the federal government will resume operations within two weeks, with bipartisan agreement expected on fiscal issues [3]. - Confidence among Republican senators suggests that the political deadlock may soon be resolved, potentially alleviating liquidity concerns [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market pullback in U.S. equities is viewed as a buying opportunity, with the S&P 500's fair valuation range estimated between 6900 and 6950, indicating no significant valuation burden [4]. - In the Hong Kong market, the ongoing process of valuation digestion is expected to be limited due to the high certainty of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, creating favorable conditions for investment [5]. Group 5: Sector Recommendations - Strong sectors facing profit-taking pressure before liquidity recovery may present greater opportunities post-recovery, particularly in semiconductors and materials [6]. - The semiconductor sector, especially storage chips, is positioned for a cyclical upswing, while gold and industrial metals are expected to benefit from stable demand and favorable market conditions [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 10% [23]. Core Insights - The essence of the recent decline in various assets is attributed to liquidity contraction, with significant pullbacks observed in major indices and commodities [1]. - The liquidity gap caused by the U.S. government shutdown is estimated to be between $150 billion to $180 billion, with a projected annualized liquidity shortfall of $1.85 trillion for the private sector [2][14]. - There is optimism regarding a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown within a short timeframe, with expectations of bipartisan agreement [3]. - The current market pullback in U.S. equities is viewed as a buying opportunity, with the S&P 500's reasonable valuation center estimated between 6900-6950, indicating no significant valuation burden [4]. - Hong Kong stocks are in a valuation digestion phase, but the high certainty of interest rate cuts is expected to limit downside potential, presenting a good opportunity for investment [5]. - The report highlights a combination of liquidity challenges and favorable fundamentals, recommending sectors such as semiconductors and materials for investment [6]. Summary by Sections - **Liquidity Issues**: The U.S. government shutdown is causing a significant liquidity gap, with a weekly absorption of $35.5 billion from the market [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The report suggests that the current market conditions, particularly in U.S. equities, present a favorable environment for investment, despite recent declines [4]. - **Sector Recommendations**: Focus on semiconductors and materials, particularly in the context of liquidity recovery and strong demand for industrial metals [6].

Group 1 - The total share of actively managed equity funds decreased to 25,406 billion units in Q3 2025, down by 2,656 billion units from Q2 2025, indicating increased net redemption pressure on existing funds [3][6] - The median net redemption rate for existing actively managed equity funds rose significantly from 3.57% in Q2 2025 to 10.34% in Q3 2025, an increase of 6.77 percentage points [11][12] - New fund establishment increased to 2,093 billion units in Q3 2025, up by 634 billion units from Q2 2025, suggesting a potential influx of new capital [11][12] Group 2 - Actively managed equity funds increased their stock positions, with median holding ratios for ordinary stock funds, mixed equity funds, and flexible allocation funds rising to 92.06%, 91.51%, and 88.51% respectively in Q3 2025 [18][22] - The number of high-position public funds increased compared to Q2 2025, with 57.75% of all sample equity funds holding over 90% in stocks [22][33] Group 3 - In Q3 2025, actively managed equity funds focused on large-cap stocks, with the allocation to stocks with a market capitalization of 500 billion to 2 trillion yuan increasing by 3.54 percentage points [3][56] - The allocation to stocks with a market capitalization of over 2 trillion yuan also rose by 5.23 percentage points, indicating a shift towards larger market cap stocks [56][62] Group 4 - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector saw a significant increase in allocation, reaching nearly 40% in Q3 2025, marking a historical high [3][5] - The electronics and communication sectors, particularly semiconductors and consumer electronics, received the most substantial increases in allocation among the TMT sectors [3][5] Group 5 - Actively managed equity funds reduced their exposure to consumer and defensive sectors, with the largest decreases in allocation seen in banking, food and beverage, home appliances, and automotive sectors [3][5] - The overall concentration of holdings in specific industries and stocks increased, with the combined share of the top three, five, and ten industries rising significantly [3][5]

Core Insights - The trade relationship between India and the United States is undergoing significant turbulence, with high tariffs imposed by the U.S. leading to a sharp decline in India's exports to the U.S. [1][6] - The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) reported a 37.5% drop in Indian exports to the U.S. from May to September 2025, with export value plummeting from $8.8 billion to $5.5 billion [1][6] Tariff Impact - Starting in April, the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on Indian goods, which escalated to 50% in August, partly as a punitive measure for India's continued purchase of Russian oil [3] - The cumulative effect of these tariffs has led to a drastic decline in exports, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as textiles, gems and jewelry, chemicals, agricultural products, and machinery, which saw a total export drop of 33% from $4.8 billion to $3.2 billion [3] Sector-Specific Declines - Exports of duty-free products experienced the most severe contraction, falling from $3.4 billion to $1.8 billion, a decline of 47% [4] - Smartphone exports, which had previously surged by 197% year-on-year, fell by 58%, dropping from $2 billion in June to $880 million in September [4] - Other notable declines include pharmaceuticals down 15.7%, industrial metals and auto parts down 16.7%, with aluminum down 37%, copper down 25%, and steel down 8% [4] - The gems and jewelry sector saw a staggering decline of nearly 60% [4] - Solar panel exports also faced a significant drop of 60.8%, impacting India's competitiveness in the renewable energy sector [4] Structural Weaknesses - GTRI highlighted that the tariff situation not only compresses profit margins but also exposes the structural weaknesses in India's key export industries [5][6] - The organization called for urgent credit support for small and medium enterprises and accelerated trade negotiations to prevent further market share loss to competitors like Vietnam, Mexico, and China [6] - Ongoing trade negotiations between India and the U.S. are in the "final stages," with the U.S. claiming India has agreed to reduce its Russian oil purchases, although this has not been confirmed by Indian officials [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a strong demand for AI data center construction, leading to a significant increase in storage prices, while the consumer durable sector remains under pressure due to weak overall consumption [2][19] - The real estate market continues to struggle, with a year-on-year decline in transaction volumes across major cities, indicating a lack of demand momentum [3][23] - The manufacturing sector shows mixed signals, with increased demand for high-performance storage chips but a weak construction materials market [4][21] Strategy Observation - Storage prices are accelerating due to strong demand from AI data centers, while the durable goods sector is facing challenges [2][19] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing weak demand, with prices for steel and building materials remaining low [4][21] - Overall consumption is weak, with signs of overspending on national subsidies affecting durable goods [2][19] Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales are at a low point, with a 23.2% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 30 major cities [3][20] - Durable goods consumption is also under pressure, with a 3.0% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars [3][20] - The agricultural sector shows some improvement, with a 3.5% increase in pig prices due to better supply-demand dynamics [3][20] Technology & Manufacturing - The price of DRAM storage has increased by 11.7% month-on-month, driven by strong demand from overseas AI server markets [4][21] - The construction materials sector is under pressure, with weak demand reflected in fluctuating prices for steel and building materials [4][21] - Manufacturing activity has seen a slight increase in operating rates, indicating some recovery in the sector [4][21] Logistics & Transportation - There is a slight recovery in long-distance travel demand, with a 5.5% month-on-month increase in the migration index [5][22] - Freight demand remains stable, with logistics activity increasing ahead of the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [5][22] - Port throughput has decreased, indicating potential challenges in the shipping sector [5][22] Real Estate Industry Tracking - The real estate market shows signs of continued weakness, with only 19% of cities indicating a bottoming out in the market [23][24] - Inventory pressure remains significant, with over 80% of cities experiencing extended new housing de-stocking cycles [23][26] - The overall market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with ongoing challenges in inventory reduction [23][26] Company Performance Insights - Company reports indicate a robust performance in Q3, with significant revenue growth driven by internal transformations and market expansion [27][28] - The furniture sector shows resilience, with a projected EPS growth for 2025-2027, reflecting strong market positioning [27][28] - Companies in the technology sector are also experiencing growth, with increased EPS forecasts due to expanding business lines in AI and automotive electronics [30][31]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 4000 points, driven by a surge in the new energy industry chain, particularly in power and new energy equipment, metal materials and mining, and comprehensive finance and insurance sectors [2][4][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.93%. The total market turnover reached 2.29 trillion yuan, with 2664 stocks rising [2][7][4] Industry Performance - On October 29, 2025, the leading sectors included: - Power and new energy equipment (+4.65%) - Metal materials and mining (+3.75%) - Comprehensive finance (+2.23%) and insurance (+1.65%) - Conversely, the banking, food and beverage, textile and apparel, and testing services sectors lagged [7][4] Conceptual Trends - Key concepts leading the market included: - Photovoltaic inverters (+5.54%) - Industrial metals (+5.28%) - Anti-involution (+4.97%) - Rare metals (+4.88%) - The banking sector and concepts related to state-owned banks and minimum market capitalization faced declines [7][4] Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was attributed to: - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing increased new energy supply - Strong quarterly reports from leading energy storage companies - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle benefiting lithium mining leaders, leading to a rally in the non-ferrous metals sector [7][4] Future Outlook - A slow bull market is anticipated, with Chinese assets likely to continue revaluation. The report suggests that the economic demand driven by traditional real estate is declining, while new productive forces are gradually gaining traction [7][4] Investment Strategy - Recommended investment directions include: 1. High-quality supply creating new demand in emerging tech industries like AI and robotics 2. Scarce supply deserving valuation premiums, particularly in metals driven by energy transition and geopolitical factors 3. Valuation recovery from excess capacity clearance in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals 4. Focus on insurance and brokerage sectors, as low-interest rates encourage residents to allocate more to equity assets, enhancing market activity [7][4]