东莞证券指出，工业金属方面，Freeport McMoRan印尼子公司Grasberg矿山近期发生泥石流事故，致使 该矿全面停产。当下，美联储降息打开宏观宽松空间，国内工业金属需求旺季来临，此次Grasberg铜矿 停产或将拉开铜价上涨的序幕。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及有色金属勘探、开采 及加工等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，涵盖铜、铝、铅、锌等基本金属以及稀有金属相关领域， 以反映有色金属行业上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数具有显著的周期特征，其走势与大宗商品价格波 动密切相关。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference has boosted market expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to upward support for non-ferrous metal prices due to marginal global liquidity easing [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Domestic fiscal and financial policies are continuously working to unleash domestic demand potential, combined with U.S. economic data indicating a possible soft landing, which has increased market risk appetite [1] - Industrial metals are transitioning between peak and off-peak seasons; although inventories continue to accumulate, certain varieties are affected by supply-side maintenance and seasonal disruptions, alongside gradually increasing demand during peak seasons, which may improve the supply-demand balance and support prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - In the context of a global monetary system restructuring, non-ferrous metals are expected to continue performing well in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities from companies engaged in non-ferrous metal mining, smelting, and related businesses to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal mining sector [1] - The index constituents exhibit strong cyclical characteristics and are influenced by global economic conditions, supply-demand changes, and policy factors [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the prices of major minerals such as copper and aluminum are steadily rising, while gold and silver prices continue to increase, indicating a potential stable growth in mining demand in the future [1] - Capital expenditure for mining companies is expected to remain relatively high in the medium to long term, driven by both maintenance and new capital expenditures [1] - The mining machinery industry is likely to experience stable demand due to stable maintenance capital expenditures, despite rising mining costs and long-term declines in ore grades supporting excess growth in mining machinery [1] Group 2 - The global mining machinery market exceeds $120 billion, with the aftermarket accounting for 60%-70% of this market, while front-end mining and transportation equipment have a higher value share compared to back-end crushing and grinding processes [1] - Major players in the overseas mining machinery market include Caterpillar and Komatsu, while Chinese companies are gradually expanding into international markets through enhanced product competitiveness and cost-effective strategies [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, reflecting the overall performance of China's non-ferrous metals industry with strong cyclical characteristics [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the implementation of policies is expected to optimize the supply-side capacity structure of non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum, leading to the elimination of outdated capacity and improving the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand linkages [1] - The mid-term profits from copper smelting and alumina production are expected to gradually recover as the demand structure is optimized, particularly in the renewable energy sector, which is anticipated to maintain optimistic growth [1] - The non-ferrous metals steady growth work plan will focus on stabilizing growth and promoting transformation, with coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides to ensure efficient resource utilization and improve the quality of supply through deep processing materials [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - The index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that policies are expected to optimize the production capacity structure of non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum, with profits from copper smelting and alumina production gradually recovering [1] - The non-ferrous metals steady growth work plan is about to be implemented, focusing on high-quality development in the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, emphasizing stability in growth and transformation [1] - Supply-side policies are likely to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, enhancing the efficiency and pricing power of high-quality production capacity [1] Group 2 - Demand-side supporting plans are expected to optimize the downstream structure, promoting optimistic growth in demand in sectors like new energy, thereby boosting the long-term demand growth for non-ferrous metals [1] - The structural contradictions in the industrial metals sector need to be resolved, and under policy guidance, the supply-demand pattern is expected to improve, benefiting companies with high-quality production capacity through price increases and comparative advantages [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals to reflect the overall performance of these sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has risen over 1.2%, supported by favorable domestic and international policies that bolster industrial metal prices [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, alongside a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail data, indicating persistent consumer resilience and supporting inflation expectations for industrial metal prices [1] - The market anticipates a 50.8% probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - China's GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, with cumulative export growth of 5.9% [1] Policy Environment - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are continuously releasing support, and with a generally warm policy tone both domestically and internationally, the pressure on prices during the off-season is limited [1] - It is expected that the peak season and interest rate cut expectations will boost industrial metal prices after mid-August [1] - The industrial metal prices are likely to operate on a strong trend in the second half of the year under a backdrop of domestic and international policy easing [1] ETF and Index Information - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metal mining index (931892), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. This index selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies [1] - The index exhibits strong cyclicality and resource attributes, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry chain [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Group 1 - The mining ETF (561330) increased by 1.0%, supported by favorable domestic and international policies that bolster the resilience of industrial metal prices during the off-season [1] - The U.S. June CPI rebounded to +2.7%, along with retail data showing a month-on-month increase of +0.6%, indicating consumer resilience and providing support for industrial metal prices [1] - Market expectations indicate a 50.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, alongside ongoing domestic "anti-involution" policies, which may lead to a new round of price boosts for industrial metals as the peak season approaches in mid-August [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metal mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering various metal sectors such as gold, copper, and aluminum [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall return rate of the non-ferrous metal sector in 2024 is expected to be weaker than the market performance, despite improvements in gross margins for both industrial and precious metals [1] Group 1: Copper Sector Insights - The global copper supply-demand structure remains tight, with long-term TC prices for 2025 dropping significantly by 73.4% to $21.25 per ton, which may compress smelter profit margins and increase the risk of production cuts [1] - The development of new productive forces continues to expand consumption, and the financial properties strengthened by interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion contribute to the resilience of copper prices, indicating an ongoing optimization of the copper industry's allocation attributes [1] - The fund holding ratio in the industrial metal sector increased from 2.09% in Q4 2023 to 3.79% in Q2 2024, reflecting market recognition of the industry's prosperity [1] Group 2: Industry Concentration and Performance - The revenue concentration ratio (CR10) in the industry is expected to rise to 57% in 2024, indicating a significant strengthening of profitability among leading companies [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., and reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in non-ferrous metal mining, smelting, and related processing businesses [1] - The index primarily invests in the non-ferrous metal sector, characterized by strong cyclicality and resource attributes, providing a comprehensive view of the market trends of mining industry chain listed companies [1]