（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 华鑫证券指出，美联储12月降息分歧较大，贵金属价格支撑仍在，黄金将维持上涨走势。锑价在下跌半 年后反弹，贸易商库存较低，冶炼厂限量销售模式支撑涨价预期。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀有 金属等矿产资源开采与加工业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿业相关上市公司证券 的整体表现。该指数具有较强的周期性特征，其走势与全球经济环境变化密切相关。 ...

平安证券指出，有色金属行业兼具景气占优和成交活跃度提升的多重优势，行业超额收益有望延续。工 业金属方面，铜、铝等商品价格受全球经济周期和自身供需格局影响，行业指数通常与商品价格共振上 行。有色金属行业的盈利预测景气指数相对偏强，对股价有一定的领先性。此外，机构资金普遍低配周 期板块，但公募、外资、两融均小幅超配有色金属行业，显示其市场关注度较高。在深化全国统一大市 场建设的框架下，随着供给侧"反内卷"与扩大内需政策推进，有色金属行业预期有望进一步改善。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及贵金属、基本金属及 稀有金属等采选与冶炼业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属行业相关上市公司证券的整 体表现。该指数具有周期性强、受全球经济环境影响显著的特征，能够较好体现有色金属采选与冶炼行 业的市场动态。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国信证券指出，工业金属行业供需格局持续改善，价格重心有望上移。电解铝产能利用率已达98%的极 值，供应端无弹性，任何需求脉冲或供应扰动都将导致短缺，铝价年均价已连续多年抬升1000元/吨， 若明年需求超预期可能突破历史前高。铜矿供应扰动不断，全球第二大铜矿Grasberg停产导致2026年供 需缺口约1%，高铜价未显著刺激资本开支增加，预计2026年铜价重心将达8.5万元/吨以上。锌精矿港口 库存回升缓解供应紧张，但终端需求中汽车、家电贡献增量，预计维持紧平衡。此外，小金属战略属性 提升，钨、锑等品种因供给增量有限且出口管制放松，价格中枢有望持续上行。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌等金属 矿产资源开采与加工业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿业相关上市公司证券的整体 表现。该指数具有较强的周期性和大宗商品价格敏感性，能够较好地体现有色金属矿业行业的运行态 势。 ...

Core Insights - The mining ETF (561330) has increased by over 1% as of November 19, indicating a positive trend in the mining sector [1] - Citic Securities highlights that ore prices are steadily rising, and capital expenditure in mining continues to increase, suggesting a stable growth in mining demand in the future [1] Industry Summary - Current prices for major minerals such as copper and aluminum are stable or rising, while gold and silver prices are on an upward trend, indicating a favorable market environment for mining companies [1] - Long-term capital expenditure for mining companies is expected to remain relatively high, supported by both maintenance and new capital expenditures, particularly in a stable production environment [1] ETF and Index Overview - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals mining index (931892), which includes publicly traded companies involved in the development of metal resources such as copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, effectively reflecting the market trends of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1]

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 矿业ETF（561330）涨超1.7%，连续3日资金净流入，把握年内涨超有色的矿业ETF布局机会。 相关机构表示，12月美联储降息预期有所降温，整体来看，宏观面预期反复，但整体稳定。原料端 延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导。终端表现分化，11月初汽车销售增速放缓，11-12月空调排产降 幅扩大，基本金属现实供需略偏弱，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，供应扰动继续支撑基本金属价 格，但宏观预期反复及需求一般限制价格上行高度，基本金属冲高回落，重新转为震荡整理；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好有色金属价格 走势。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、 稀有金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The easing of geopolitical trade tensions has led to an optimistic macro sentiment for industrial metal prices, although further upward potential will depend on domestic and international supply-demand dynamics as the peak season ends [1] Industrial Metals - The current macro sentiment remains optimistic for industrial metal prices, influenced by the easing of geopolitical trade tensions [1] - The upward potential for industrial metal prices will rely on the interpretation of supply-demand logic both domestically and internationally as the peak season concludes [1] Precious Metals - The combination of a hawkish Fed rate cut and the easing of US-China trade tensions has resulted in a correction in precious metal prices [1] - Following the JH meeting, the probability of a rate cut in December is considered high under the scenario of no significant inflation increase, maintaining a macro framework favorable for long positions in precious metals [1] - The mid-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations for a rebound after the current price correction [1] Mining ETF - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes securities from companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals [1] - The mining ETF has outperformed the CSI Non-Ferrous Index by nearly 10% this year, indicating a concentration in leading companies, with a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals sector is entering a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance, influenced by global monetary easing, strategic resource positioning, and the transformation of old and new industries, with a focus on gold, lithium/rare earths, and copper [1] - Gold is highlighted for its safe-haven properties and strategic resource status, performing well in a loose monetary environment [1] - The overall non-ferrous metals industry is showing structural opportunities in the new cycle, with an improved supply-demand pattern supporting price resilience [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities from companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - The mining ETF (561330) has outperformed the CSI Non-Ferrous Index by nearly 10% this year, indicating a more concentrated leadership with a higher proportion of gold, copper, and rare earths [1]

Group 1 - The mining ETF (561330) experienced a decline of over 3% during intraday trading on November 3 [1] - The industrial metals sector is driven by positive macroeconomic and policy expectations, with strong price performance for copper and aluminum [1] - The copper price is expected to continue rising due to a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices are under pressure from potential shutdowns at Rio Tinto's Tomago smelter due to high electricity costs [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, which supports metal prices in a loose liquidity environment [1] - There are concerns regarding macroeconomic uncertainties stemming from ongoing US-China trade tensions and the impact of economic fluctuations on domestic and international demand [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which includes companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's CPI data is lower than expected, opening up room for interest rate cuts, which is likely to lead to strong performance in metal prices [1] - Precious metal prices are expected to remain high due to the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, combined with global geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand [1] - Domestic expectations for policy and infrastructure demand are boosted by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party, with fiscal and monetary policies likely to maintain a dual easing approach, improving macro sentiment that supports basic metals like copper and aluminum [1] Group 2 - The copper sector is benefiting from an increase in both the quantity and price of mined copper, with an improved supply-demand balance leading to significant price elasticity under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors [1] - The Mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities related to the development of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - The Mining ETF (561330) has an excess return of over 10% compared to the CSI Non-Ferrous Index, featuring a more concentrated selection of leading companies, with a higher proportion of "gold + copper + rare earths" [1]

Group 1 - The industrial metals sector is expected to see rising copper prices due to disruptions at the mining level and anticipated "anti-involution" policies in smelting [1] - Freeport Indonesia may suspend operations at the Manyar smelter due to a mudflow incident at the Grasberg copper mine, which has an annual processing capacity of approximately 1.7 million tons of copper concentrate, potentially impacting Indonesia's copper smelting capacity and export plans [1] - In September, China's PPI year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points, indicating resilience in the demand side for industrial metals [1] Group 2 - The aluminum industry is facing frequent unexpected events in the upstream resource sector, highlighting supply vulnerabilities, leading to a trend towards integrated operations within the industry [1] - Export controls in the rare earth sector are being strengthened, with secondary resource recycling now included in the control measures, further tightening supply constraints, which may benefit the mid-heavy rare earth industry chain in the short term [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities from companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead-zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1]