Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that policies are expected to optimize the production capacity structure of non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum, with profits from copper smelting and alumina production gradually recovering [1] - The non-ferrous metals steady growth work plan is about to be implemented, focusing on high-quality development in the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, emphasizing stability in growth and transformation [1] - Supply-side policies are likely to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, enhancing the efficiency and pricing power of high-quality production capacity [1] Group 2 - Demand-side supporting plans are expected to optimize the downstream structure, promoting optimistic growth in demand in sectors like new energy, thereby boosting the long-term demand growth for non-ferrous metals [1] - The structural contradictions in the industrial metals sector need to be resolved, and under policy guidance, the supply-demand pattern is expected to improve, benefiting companies with high-quality production capacity through price increases and comparative advantages [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals to reflect the overall performance of these sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has risen over 1.2%, supported by favorable domestic and international policies that bolster industrial metal prices [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, alongside a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail data, indicating persistent consumer resilience and supporting inflation expectations for industrial metal prices [1] - The market anticipates a 50.8% probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - China's GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, with cumulative export growth of 5.9% [1] Policy Environment - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are continuously releasing support, and with a generally warm policy tone both domestically and internationally, the pressure on prices during the off-season is limited [1] - It is expected that the peak season and interest rate cut expectations will boost industrial metal prices after mid-August [1] - The industrial metal prices are likely to operate on a strong trend in the second half of the year under a backdrop of domestic and international policy easing [1] ETF and Index Information - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metal mining index (931892), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. This index selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies [1] - The index exhibits strong cyclicality and resource attributes, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry chain [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Group 1 - The mining ETF (561330) increased by 1.0%, supported by favorable domestic and international policies that bolster the resilience of industrial metal prices during the off-season [1] - The U.S. June CPI rebounded to +2.7%, along with retail data showing a month-on-month increase of +0.6%, indicating consumer resilience and providing support for industrial metal prices [1] - Market expectations indicate a 50.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, alongside ongoing domestic "anti-involution" policies, which may lead to a new round of price boosts for industrial metals as the peak season approaches in mid-August [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metal mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering various metal sectors such as gold, copper, and aluminum [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall return rate of the non-ferrous metal sector in 2024 is expected to be weaker than the market performance, despite improvements in gross margins for both industrial and precious metals [1] Group 1: Copper Sector Insights - The global copper supply-demand structure remains tight, with long-term TC prices for 2025 dropping significantly by 73.4% to $21.25 per ton, which may compress smelter profit margins and increase the risk of production cuts [1] - The development of new productive forces continues to expand consumption, and the financial properties strengthened by interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion contribute to the resilience of copper prices, indicating an ongoing optimization of the copper industry's allocation attributes [1] - The fund holding ratio in the industrial metal sector increased from 2.09% in Q4 2023 to 3.79% in Q2 2024, reflecting market recognition of the industry's prosperity [1] Group 2: Industry Concentration and Performance - The revenue concentration ratio (CR10) in the industry is expected to rise to 57% in 2024, indicating a significant strengthening of profitability among leading companies [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., and reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in non-ferrous metal mining, smelting, and related processing businesses [1] - The index primarily invests in the non-ferrous metal sector, characterized by strong cyclicality and resource attributes, providing a comprehensive view of the market trends of mining industry chain listed companies [1]