Market Overview - On August 4, A-shares experienced a rebound after an initial decline, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by strong performance in the banking sector and a recovery in thematic concepts [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.5 trillion yuan, with over 3,800 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The defense and aerospace sectors showed significant gains, with the General Aviation ETF (159231) rising by 3.29%, reaching a new closing high since its listing [1][4] - The low-altitude economy in China has surpassed 506 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34%, and is projected to reach 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, presenting a substantial investment opportunity [2][6] Fund Flows - The defense industry ETF (512810) saw a net inflow of 9.739 billion yuan, ranking second among all sectors, indicating strong investor interest [2] - The General Aviation ETF has accumulated a total increase of 21.63% since its launch, reflecting robust market sentiment [4] Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that the military industry sector is showing signs of recovery, with catalysts expected to drive performance in the first half of 2025 [3] - The low-altitude economy is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory, supported by government policies and technological advancements [6] Banking Sector Insights - The banking sector saw a strong performance, with the Agricultural Bank of China reaching a new high, and several banks, including Qingdao Bank and Postal Savings Bank, showing significant gains [16][18] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy is expected to benefit the banking sector [18] - Recent data indicates that several listed banks have reported positive growth in net profit for the first half of the year, with asset quality remaining stable [19][20] ETF Highlights - The banking ETF (512800) has become the largest and most liquid among the 10 banking ETFs in the market, with a fund size exceeding 14.4 billion yuan [22] - The General Aviation ETF and its linked funds provide an effective tool for investors to capture opportunities in the burgeoning low-altitude economy [9]

Group 1 - Mining and non-ferrous concept stocks declined in early trading, with Northern Rare Earth falling over 3%, and Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold dropping over 2% [1] - Mining and non-ferrous related ETFs fell approximately 2% [1] Group 2 - Specific ETF performance includes: - Main Mining ETF (561330) at 1.201, down 0.032 (-2.60%) - Main Mining ETF (159690) at 1.237, down 0.030 (-2.37%) - Main Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) at 1.067, down 0.023 (-2.11%) - Main Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) at 1.205, down 0.025 (-2.03%) - Main Non-ferrous ETF (159880) at 1.252, down 0.023 (-1.80%) - Main Non-ferrous Metals ETF (159871) at 1.263, down 0.024 (-1.86%) - Main Non-ferrous Leaders ETF (159876) at 1.292, down 0.024 (-1.82%) [2] - A brokerage firm indicated that in 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector will still face high market volatility risks due to uncertainties from demand and supply disturbances. However, emerging demand in the downstream structure of copper and aluminum has shifted from quantitative to qualitative changes, which is expected to support a long-term upward adjustment in non-ferrous metal prices [2]

Core Insights - The "anti-involution" trend has become a market focus and policy priority, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planning to issue growth stabilization plans for industries such as machinery and automobiles, which is expected to boost thematic market trends [1] Historical Insights: Supply-Side Reform Experience - Historical supply-side reforms show that market acceptance of policy effects tends to lag, requiring concrete policy implementation or increased intensity for market reactions [2] - Key signals for price increases in cyclical industries are improvements in fundamentals rather than mere reductions in output, with industrial price increases and capacity utilization rates being critical indicators [2] - Demand resonance can broaden the beneficiary scope, with directly impacted sectors expanding to include a wider range of industries if demand-side support is present [2] Comparison of "Anti-Involution" and Supply-Side Reform - Both "anti-involution" and supply-side reforms arise from structural oversupply environments, with significant pressure on the supply side and prolonged negative growth in PPI since October 2022 [3][4] - The current "anti-involution" policies cover a broader range of industries and aim for higher-level goals compared to previous supply-side reforms [3][4] Policy Direction: Industry-Specific Measures and Key Focus Areas - The "anti-involution" policies are accelerating, with recent meetings emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, with industries like cement and photovoltaics already initiating self-discipline measures [5][11] Industry Opportunities and ETF Allocation Strategies - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to accelerate industry clearing, improving profitability and market performance, particularly in sectors with significant improvement potential before supply clearing [7] - Specific sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce are highlighted for potential investment opportunities through corresponding ETFs [20] Sector-Specific Insights - **Chemicals**: The sector is expected to benefit from the exit of backward production capacity and a shift towards R&D and quality improvement, with industry associations already taking self-discipline actions [11] - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: The sector faces significant overcapacity issues, with policies aimed at controlling midstream capacity growth to restore processing profits [10] - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production and sales gap is narrowing, indicating initial policy effects, although profit margin improvements are still lagging [15] - **E-commerce**: The industry is transitioning from low-price competition to differentiated competition, driven by policy guidance and platform strategy adjustments [18]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose on July 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.5%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.37%, and ChiNext Index up by 0.34. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 15,710.55 billion yuan, an increase of 316.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2]. Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the market, with significant gains in lithium and rare earth stocks. The Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159876) saw a peak intraday price increase of 2.64%, closing up 2.15%, marking a new high for the year [4][5]. - The chemical sector also performed strongly, with the Chemical ETF (516020) reaching a maximum intraday increase of 2.28% and closing up 1.95%. The price surge was driven by TDI price increases due to supply shortages [12][14]. - The food and beverage sector, particularly leading liquor stocks, also showed strength, with the Food ETF (515710) closing up 1.16% [1][2]. Investment Insights - Analysts from Shenwan Hongyuan noted that under the "anti-involution" policy, the expectations for the midstream manufacturing sector are shifting towards 2026, creating more short-term investment opportunities. The passing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. has reduced the risk of a deep recession, enhancing visibility for China's supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [2][3]. - Guojin Securities highlighted that domestic manufacturing companies' capital returns are expected to stabilize and improve, making A-shares more attractive compared to overseas markets. They recommend focusing on upstream resource products, capital goods, and intermediate goods that benefit from both domestic policies and rising overseas demand [3][4]. Rare Earth and Lithium Market Dynamics - The rare earth sector is experiencing a surge due to several favorable factors, including government actions to secure resource safety and the discovery of new rare earth minerals in Inner Mongolia. The leading company, Northern Rare Earth, is expected to see a net profit increase of up to 2014% in the first half of the year [5][6]. - In the lithium market, a recent production halt due to regulatory issues at a lithium mining company in Qinghai has raised concerns about supply constraints. This, combined with a rebound in lithium carbonate futures prices, has led to increased market interest in the sector [6][7]. Chemical Sector Outlook - The chemical sector is benefiting from a supply crunch in TDI, with major players like Wanhua Chemical expected to gain significantly from rising TDI prices. The company is the largest global supplier of MDI and TDI, with plans to expand its production capacity [12][16]. - Analysts predict that the chemical sector will enter a new upward cycle due to improved demand and supply-side adjustments driven by domestic policy changes [17][18]. Hong Kong Market Trends - The Hong Kong market is showing strength, particularly in the technology sector, with significant gains in internet stocks. The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) rose by 1.61%, reflecting strong performance from major tech companies [18][21]. - The innovative drug sector is also gaining traction, with the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (520880) seeing a cumulative increase of 58.95% in the first half of the year, outperforming other indices [23][24].