Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets exhibited a stable performance during the Spring Festival holiday, setting a favorable external environment for the A-share market's reopening, with key drivers including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a recovery in industrial metal demand [3][6][13]. Equity Markets - The A-share market experienced a slight decline before the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4082.07 points, down 1.26%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.28% [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market was the only major Asian market open during the holiday, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.52% to 26705.94 points, driven by sectors such as semiconductors and AI applications [5]. - The U.S. stock market remained stable, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.10% and the S&P 500 maintaining a strong position, supported by robust corporate earnings and expectations of interest rate cuts [5][14]. Debt Market and Currency - The U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling to 3.85%, reflecting an 80% probability of a rate cut by June, driven by easing inflation data [6][13]. - The exchange rate remained stable, with the USD/CNY rate at 6.9225, supported by the People's Bank of China's liquidity measures and narrowing interest rate differentials [6]. Commodity Market - Industrial metals showed strong performance, with copper prices rising by 1.4% to $13,176 per ton, benefiting from global demand recovery and expectations of liquidity easing [7]. - Oil prices remained stable, with WTI crude oil slightly increasing to $62.89 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [7]. Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a bullish trend post-holiday, with historical data indicating a 76% probability of an increase in the first five trading days after the Spring Festival [9]. - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to undergo a structural rebound, with a 60% probability of an increase in the month following the holiday, driven by external sentiment and capital inflows [11]. - The U.S. market is projected to continue its strong performance, particularly in technology sectors, supported by favorable interest rate expectations and solid corporate earnings [14].

"哎，你昨天去金店看价格了吗？听说黄金又涨了一点。"朋友这句话说得挺有意思，其实最近黄金价格一直在微调，但整体趋势还是挺稳的。无论是回收还 是销售，市场上都有自己的一套逻辑，而背后的走势也和国际局势、美元表现紧密相关。11月29日的黄金行情，再次给大家提供了参考。 国内黄金价格回收与销售：稳中带韧性今天国内黄金大盘回收价稳定在944.76元一克，销售价报946.76元。可以看到，差价不大，说明市场流动性比较健 康。受美联储降息预期增强的影响，沪金主力合约交易在946元附近，这让黄金的避险需求支撑了价格的韧性。白银、铂金、钯金也都跟涨，回收价分别为 12.081元、367元和325.4元。工业金属需求回暖，直接带动贵金属的联动上涨，这意味着不仅是黄金，其他金属品种也有投资参考价值。 金店金饰价格：头部品牌略高，批发价性价比突出周大福、周生生、老凤祥等品牌金饰价格在1321-1328元每克，比上月上涨了六十元左右，而水贝黄金批 发价仅1102元每克，价差超过200元。轻克重产品（10克以内）销量提升至45%，反映出消费者更倾向于小件、易携带、性价比高的产品。简单来说，如果 你买来佩戴或送人，头部品牌有品牌溢价和设 ...