Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the construction industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the logic of overseas engineering expansion is gradually being realized, with high growth areas showing superior growth. Infrastructure and real estate demand continue to face pressure, while railway and water conservancy investments perform well, with the effects of debt reduction expected to gradually manifest [1][8]. - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are experiencing a significant decline in revenue and performance, but there is a long-term trend of improving operational quality. Many SOEs have shown improvements in profitability, cash flow, and expense ratios, indicating a gradual enhancement in operational quality [2][8]. - The overseas new contract signing is rapidly increasing, demonstrating the effectiveness of the overseas expansion strategy. The contract value and revenue from foreign engineering projects have shown significant year-on-year growth, providing support for domestic construction enterprises [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Infrastructure investment growth has been declining, with broad infrastructure investment growth dropping from 11.50% in early 2023 to 1.51% by October 2025. Narrow infrastructure investment growth turned negative, indicating a significant slowdown in traditional infrastructure demand [16][17]. - The investment growth in the railway sector remains positive, while road transport investment has been declining due to funding pressures from local governments and construction enterprises [18][20]. 2. Central SOEs Performance - Central SOEs in the infrastructure sector are facing revenue and performance growth challenges, but operational quality is improving. The implementation of debt reduction measures is expected to show fiscal effects by 2026 [2][8]. 3. Overseas Expansion - The overseas contract signing for Chinese construction enterprises has increased significantly, with major state-owned enterprises showing higher growth rates in new contracts compared to the overall market. This trend is expected to support revenue growth in the coming years [3][8]. 4. Regional Investment Trends - In the western region, particularly Xinjiang, fixed asset investment growth is significantly higher than the national average, with major infrastructure projects expected to drive demand growth [6][8]. - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is projected to see substantial investment, with over 400 key projects planned, totaling an investment of 3.47 trillion yuan [6][8]. 5. Cleanroom Engineering Demand - The demand for cleanroom construction is expected to rise due to increased capital expenditure in the AI and semiconductor industries. The cleanroom engineering sector is experiencing rapid growth in orders, particularly from overseas markets [7][8]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that low-valuation central SOEs like China State Construction and China Communications Construction Company are well-positioned for stable returns, with improving operational metrics and increasing dividends [9][8]. - Leading companies in overseas expansion, such as China National Materials and China Steel International, are expected to outperform traditional construction enterprises due to their strong growth in overseas orders [9][8].

Core Insights - The construction industry is officially entering a platform period, with infrastructure investment maintaining resilience but showing signs of decline in revenue among major state-owned enterprises [5][28][30] - The overall investment tone for infrastructure in the second half of 2025 will focus on stability, supported by proactive fiscal policies and accelerated government bond issuance [2][37] - Structural opportunities are emerging, particularly in manufacturing, power, water conservancy, and water transport sectors, driven by special government bonds [5][6] Industry Overview - The construction industry has seen a decline in total revenue for the first time in 2024, confirming a turning point for the industry [30] - The total revenue for the construction industry in 2024 was 86,962.78 billion, a decrease of 4.29% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 13.74% [30][32] - The share of real estate in GDP has been declining since its peak in 2021, while infrastructure investment has been rising but not enough to offset the decline in real estate [26][28] Investment Strategy - Long-term investment should focus on manufacturing-oriented companies like Honglu Steel Structure, while short-term strategies should prioritize high-dividend stocks and significant changes in individual companies [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in areas aligned with national strategic initiatives and safety capabilities [60] State-Owned Enterprises - There is a growing divergence among state-owned construction enterprises, with only a few, such as China State Construction and China Energy Engineering, showing positive growth in Q1 2024 [7][28] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend stability and growth potential, such as China Chemical Engineering and China Communications Construction [7][8] Professional Engineering and International Opportunities - The international engineering sector is expected to benefit from ongoing orders and the deepening of cooperation along the Belt and Road Initiative [8] - Companies like China National Materials and China Steel International are highlighted for their low valuations and high dividend yields, indicating strong performance potential [8] Mergers and Acquisitions - The construction industry is moving towards maturity, necessitating mergers and acquisitions to find new growth points [10] - The report anticipates that future mergers will primarily come from smaller, weaker segments of the industry, such as design and decoration [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The municipal investment in March continues to show a warming trend, with a focus on domestic demand counter-cyclical adjustments and safe investment areas [1] - The construction industry PMI rose to 53.4 in March, indicating improved activity in the sector [36] - The issuance of special bonds has been stable, with a significant year-on-year increase in the amount issued [44] Summary by Sections 1. Water Conservancy and Power Investment - Water conservancy and power investments continue to maintain high growth, with municipal investment in March showing a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [23] - Narrowly defined infrastructure investment (excluding power) increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while broadly defined infrastructure investment (including power) rose by 11.5% [23][24] 2. Fund Tracking - As of April 18, 2025, the total amount of newly issued special bonds reached 1,063.39 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 40.4% [44] - The issuance of city investment bonds reached 1,824.42 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 4.74% [48] 3. Recent Key Company Announcements - Shanghai Construction Group reported a cumulative new contract amount of 64.548 billion CNY for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 44.03% [60] - Jianghe Group announced a cumulative new contract amount of 1.435 billion CNY for Q1 2025, down 47.13% year-on-year [60]