新华财经北京10月30日电（崔凯）美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下 调25个基点，至3.75%–4.00%。这是美联储继9月之后连续第二次会议降息，符合市场普遍预期。决议 获得多数委员支持，但两名成员投下反对票，凸显政策立场分化。 根据FOMC官方声明，堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德（Jeffrey R. Schmid）反对降息，主张维持利率 不变；理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen I. Miran）则认为降息幅度不足，主张一次性下调50个基点。这是本轮 降息周期中首次出现"两极反对"——一端呼吁暂停，另一端呼吁更激进宽松。 经济评估：温和扩张、就业放缓、通胀仍处高位 FOMC在政策声明中指出，可用指标显示"经济活动以温和的速度扩张"。今年以来，就业增长明显放 缓，失业率略有上升，但截至8月仍处于较低水平；更近期的指标与这一趋势一致。通胀方面，声明 称"较年初有所上升，仍处于相对高位"。 委员会重申其双重使命——实现最大就业和长期2%的通胀目标，并强调"近几个月就业方面的下行风险 有所上升"，构成此次降息的主要依据。声明称，在考虑未来利率调整时，将"认真评估最新数据、经济 前景的 ...

Group 1 - The Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, publicly urged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to restart the interest rate cut cycle to alleviate pressure on the housing market [1] - Pulte emphasized that lowering interest rates would directly improve homebuyer affordability and inject much-needed liquidity into the stagnant housing market [1] - The Trump administration has consistently pressured the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs, linking tight monetary policy with trade protectionism that suppresses economic vitality [3] Group 2 - Economists point out that the underlying issues in the U.S. housing market stem from structural contradictions, including a growing housing inventory gap and limited new home construction due to rising material costs and labor shortages [3] - The National Association of Home Builders reported that the cost of single-family home construction has increased by 37% compared to 2020 [3] - Over 60% of retail businesses plan to raise end prices in the coming quarters to pass on the cost pressures from tariffs, indicating a cost-push inflation scenario [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has maintained its policy stance despite political pressure, keeping the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5% after a cumulative cut of 100 basis points in the second half of 2024 [4] - Powell stated that monetary policy will not yield to short-term political considerations, emphasizing the need for strategic consistency amid economic uncertainties caused by tariff disputes [4] - The combination of rising construction costs and labor shortages, along with tariff-induced price increases, poses a dual pressure on the housing market, complicating the Fed's ability to achieve its 2% inflation target [4]

周一（5月26日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元下跌，目前交投于142附近，截止北京时间11:45分，美元兑日 元报价142.51，下跌0.03%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为142.55。日本通胀数据持续高企，为日本央 行再次加息提供了有力支撑。 随着相对强弱指数(RSI，14)趋势向下并低于50，且MACD指标在负区间从上方穿越信号线，美元兑日 元动能正转向看跌，下跌可能性高于上涨。由于50日和200日移动平均线均向下倾斜，逢高卖出和突破 下跌仍是首选策略。 上周五公布的统计数据显示，4月全国CPI同比上涨3.6%，超出市场预期。更值得关注的是，剔除新鲜 食品价格的核心CPI同比增速从3月的3.2%加速至3.5%，高于预期的3.4%。而日本央行最为看重的"核 心-核心CPI"（剔除新鲜食品和能源价格）同比涨幅也从2.9%微升至3%，显示通胀压力具有广泛性。市 场分析指出，这一系列数据强化了日本央行进一步加息的可能性。特别是在工资持续上涨的背景下，企 业可能将人力成本转嫁给消费者，形成"工资-物价"螺旋上升的态势。尽管美国贸易政策的不确定性带 来外部风险，但国内通胀压力可能迫使日本央行在7月或10月的政策会议上再次加息 ...