本次 12 月会议纪要还提及，美联储官员就'如何精准锚定金融体系合意准备金规模'展开讨论。部分委 员指出，考虑到准备金需求可能出现变动，紧盯货币市场利率与准备金余额利率的利差水平，而非设定 具体的准备金规模阈值，是更优选择。 美联储决策者强调，此类购债操作仅为准备金管理工具，与美联储整体货币政策及经济刺激举措毫无关 联。 会议纪要显示，此次决策的背景是，部分参会委员发现，当前货币市场利率相对于美联储管理利率的上 行速度，已快于 2017-2019 年美联储缩表期间的水平。 本月初，美联储已停止缩表（即量化紧缩）进程 —— 此前规模达 12.6 万亿美元的回购市场已显现流动 性承压迹象。自今夏以来，美国国库券发行规模大幅增加，叠加量化紧缩政策，持续从货币市场抽离资 金，耗尽美联储核心流动性工具，推高短期市场利率。 市场担忧，若流动性严重不足，将扰乱金融市场核心清算体系，削弱美联储对利率政策的调控能力；极 端情况下，还可能引发市场平仓潮，并蔓延至全球融资利率基准的美国国债整体市场。 美联储一项调查的受访者预计，为缓解货币市场压力，美联储未来 12 个月的准备金管理购债规模总计 将超 2000 亿美元。 美联储决策 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长贝森特周二表示，总统特朗普预计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储 主席人选。他在接受专访时透露，仍有一场关键的二轮面试将在今天进行，因此暂不准备对最终人选作 出任何判断。他再次强调，特朗普可能在12月25日前公布提名决定。 贝森特透露，在面试候选人的过程中，一个核心主题就是"如何让美联储变得更简单"。他表示，如今的 美联储在管理货币市场时已变得过于复杂，"我意识到美联储已经演变成一个非常复杂的机构"，因此在 遴选标准中，他特别关注候选人对于美联储各类政策工具之间相互作用的理解。他说："我们在面试中 特别强调，这些工具之间的计算方式到底是怎样的，它们之间的关系是什么。" 外界普遍认为的最终候选名单包括：美联储理事沃勒、鲍曼，前美联储理事沃什，国家经济委员会主任 哈塞特，以及贝莱德高管里德尔。 贝森特指出，美联储目前采用所谓"充裕准备金"的操作框架，通过持有大量美国国债来控制政策利率， 并向银行在美联储的超额准备金支付利息，同时也向货币市场基金在临时放置现金时支付利息。他认为 这一框架正在出现"边缘松动"的迹象，"看起来系统内的准备金可能没有想象中那么'充裕'"。 为确保流动性充足，美 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% [1] - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [1][2] - The ongoing government shutdown has created a "data vacuum," complicating the Fed's ability to assess economic conditions and make informed decisions [2][6] Group 2 - The Fed confirmed it will end its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) on December 1, which has been ongoing for three years [3] - The balance sheet has shrunk from a peak of $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, indicating that the Fed has largely achieved its reduction goals [3][5] - Recent liquidity pressures in the U.S. money market have necessitated the cessation of balance sheet reduction to prevent a repeat of past liquidity crises [4][5] Group 3 - Powell's comments during the press conference indicated that future rate cuts are not guaranteed, emphasizing the need for flexibility in policy decisions [6] - The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, particularly regarding employment and inflation, adds complexity to the Fed's future rate decisions [6][7] - The potential change in leadership at the Fed, with several candidates being considered for the chair position, could significantly impact future monetary policy and its independence [7]

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut since September, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision received majority support, but two members opposed it, indicating a division in policy stance [1] Economic Assessment - The FOMC noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2] - Inflation has risen compared to earlier in the year and remains relatively high, which is a key factor in the decision to cut rates [2] Balance Sheet Management - The FOMC announced the end of balance sheet reduction operations starting December 1, with a monthly reduction of $50 billion in U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [3] - MBS principal repayments will be reinvested into short-term U.S. Treasuries, marking the end of a three-year quantitative tightening phase [3] Policy Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding further rate cuts in December, as the FOMC emphasized a data-dependent approach to future monetary policy adjustments [4] - The availability of key economic data may be impacted by the partial government shutdown, which could influence the decision-making process for the December meeting [4] Internal Divergence - FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted significant internal disagreement regarding the next steps in policy, with some members advocating for a pause to assess economic conditions, while others support further rate cuts [5][11] - The committee's decision-making will be based on the latest data and changes in economic outlook and risk balance [11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that the Fed should reduce bank reserves from the current $3.26 trillion to about $2.7 trillion, which would lower the Fed's total balance sheet size to $5.8 trillion from the current $6.7 trillion [2] - Waller believes that the current federal funds rate is too tight and anticipates a potential interest rate cut at the next meeting later this month, despite being in the minority among his colleagues [2] - Waller emphasizes the importance of maintaining a "ample" level of reserves, estimating that the Fed needs to keep reserves above $3 trillion to $3.25 trillion to avoid market pressure [3] Group 2 - Waller is being considered as a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump, and he advocates for a gradual reduction of the balance sheet without drastic cuts [3] - Critics, including Kevin Warsh, have questioned the Fed's balance sheet policies, suggesting that it should be reduced to pre-financial crisis levels [4] - Waller proposes that the Fed's balance sheet structure should hold more short-term assets, with long-term securities serving as a hedge against monetary liabilities, constituting about half of the Fed's Treasury holdings [4]