美国总统特朗普周四宣布将通过房利美和房地美购买2000亿美元抵押贷款债券，这是其在继干预美联储降息进程后，再度直接介入金融市场的最新举措。 这项被视为"特朗普版量化宽松"的计划旨在压低房贷利率，降低购房成本。 特朗普在Truth Social上发文称，他之所以发布这一指令， 是因为两家政府支持的抵押贷款机构——房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac），目前 资金十分充裕。 同日，联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长普尔特（Bill Pulte）表示，总统希望由房利美和房地美来执行这些购买。这些债券购买"可以非常迅速地执行。我们有能 力，也有现金来完成，而且会以非常聪明、且规模非常大的方式来推进。" 近几个月来，房利美和房地美已在其资产负债表中新增了数十亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券和住房贷款，这引发市场猜测：它们可能正试图在潜在公开上市之 前，通过压低放贷利率并提升盈利能力来改善自身状况。 特朗普在帖子中声称，这一举措将有助于恢复"可负担性"。"可负担性"一词近年来已成为民主党政治叙事中的关键词，他们指责特朗普这位共和党总统未能有效 应对高物价问题。 特朗普还猛烈抨击前任美国总统拜登的执政表现，称 ...

花旗去年底估计，如果这两家政府支持企业将其投资组合增加2500亿美元，那么债券的风险溢价可能会 下降约0.25个百分点，这可能会转化为消费者支付的抵押贷款利率出现类似幅度的下降。 策略师们指出，这样做是降低抵押贷款利率的一种相对直接的方法，因为对抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的 需求增加会转化为风险溢价收窄，从而影响到基础抵押贷款。 美国全国住房会议主席兼首席执行官David Dworkin,表示"如果特朗普政府允许房利美和房地美扩大其保 留的投资组合，毫无疑问，这将对抵押贷款利率造成下行压力——可能至少下降0.25个百分点，甚至更 多。" 房地美周四表示，截至1月8日当周，30年期抵押贷款利率平均为6.16%，接近2024年10月以来的最低水 平。 美国总统特朗普指示房利美和房地美购买2000亿美元的抵押贷款债券(MBS)，他将此举视为在11月中期 选举前降低住房成本的最新举措。特朗普周四在社交媒体上宣布了这一举措，称"这将降低抵押贷款利 率，降低每月还款额，使拥有房屋的成本更加实惠。" 他还补充说，他在第一任期内决定不出售房利美和房地美，使它们积累了"2000亿美元的现金"，而他之 所以发表这一声明，正是因为 ...

First, Trump short-circuited the Fed's rate-cut process. Now he is going after QE by launching his own version of it. In a post on late Thursday post on Truth Social, President Trump said he was directing the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage bonds, which he framed as his latest effort to bring down housing costs ahead of the November midterm election.“This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable,” Trump wrote in his post.He added that his ...

近几个月来，房利美与房地美已在其资产负债表上增加了数十亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券和住房贷款， 这引发了市场猜测：在为潜在的公开上市做准备之际，它们正试图压低贷款利率并提升盈利能力。 最新数据显示，截至10月的五个月内，这两家政府支持的住房金融巨头将其自持投资组合(即它们持有 而非出售给投资者的债券和贷款部分)增加了超过25%。这使其合并持仓规模升至2340亿美元，为2021 年以来最高。分析师估计，明年它们可能再增加高达1000亿美元。 尽管特朗普政府官员对MBS购买行为保持缄默，但他们今年已多次表示，将利用房利美和房地美的金 融实力来降低住房成本。政策制定者也一直在为将这两家公司重返公开市场铺路，此时距它们被政府接 管已近二十年。更大的自持投资组合可能会提振其盈利，并增强其在未来任何发行中对投资者的吸引 力。 然而目前，影响主要体现于9万亿美元的美国机构MBS市场。随着这两家政府支持企业大举买入债券， 它们正在抑制证券流入市场的数量并支撑其价格。此外，当利差扩大时有两个大型买家介入，也可能抑 制市场波动，并在此过程中改变投资者评估风险的方式。"如果你想降低抵押贷款利率，最直接的方法 之一就是指示GSE(政府支 ...

Core Insights - Shenzhen has achieved a historic milestone by accumulating over 1 trillion yuan in housing provident fund contributions in less than 15 years, significantly faster than other major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [1][3][4] Group 1: Accumulation Timeline - Beijing established its housing provident fund system in 1992 and reached the 1 trillion yuan mark in 2017, taking 25 years [2] - Shanghai's system began in 1991, with the 1 trillion yuan milestone achieved in 2019, taking 28 years [2] - Guangzhou, also starting in 1992, is projected to reach this milestone in 2023, taking 31 years [2] - Shenzhen, which implemented the system in 2010, is expected to reach the 1 trillion yuan mark by 2025, taking only 15 years [2] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Rapid Growth - Shenzhen's rapid accumulation is attributed to two main pillars: continuous expansion of the coverage of the system and ongoing upgrades in management capabilities [2][4] - The city has broadened its coverage to include non-public enterprises and flexible employment groups, leading to a larger contributor base [4] - The demographic structure in Shenzhen, with a younger population and many new residents, contributes to a "net contributor" status, where contributions exceed withdrawals and loans [4] Group 3: Fund Management and Utilization - As of September 2025, over 2.6 billion yuan has been withdrawn for rent payments, with the total withdrawal amount reaching 600 billion yuan, of which over 87% is for housing consumption [5] - Shenzhen has optimized its extraction and loan policies, including innovative models like "commercial to public" loans with minimal documentation requirements [6] - A comprehensive risk prevention and control system has been established to safeguard the funds, enhancing the efficiency of fund utilization [6] Group 4: Value-Added Earnings - In 2024, the value-added earnings from housing provident funds varied across cities, with Shanghai leading at 13.71 billion yuan, followed by Beijing at 11.77 billion yuan, Guangzhou at 4.69 billion yuan, and Shenzhen at 4.57 billion yuan [8] - The distribution of value-added earnings primarily supports risk reserves for loans, management expenses, and funding for public rental housing construction [8]

Core Points - The incident at the Georgetown private club escalated into a confrontation between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Benset and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte, highlighting internal conflicts within the Trump administration [1][2] - The clash stemmed from policy disagreements and power struggles regarding the privatization plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which is a significant economic agenda for the Trump administration [4][6] - The altercation reflects a governance style in the Trump administration that prioritizes loyalty over professional expertise, leading to blurred lines of authority and ineffective coordination among departments [7][11] Policy Disagreements - Benset and Pulte disagreed on the public listing of up to 15% of the shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with Benset arguing it exceeded the Treasury's jurisdiction [4] - There were also differing views on the future of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Benset warning against his dismissal due to potential market instability, while Pulte openly called for Powell's resignation [4][6] Personal Rivalries - The personal animosity between Benset and Pulte was exacerbated by their previous competition for power and influence within the administration, with Pulte leveraging his close ties to Trump to expand his authority [6][11] - The conflict illustrates a broader issue within the U.S. political landscape, where professional judgment is often overshadowed by factional disputes and personal grievances [12] Impact on Financial Markets - The internal strife has led to increased volatility in financial markets, with the Nasdaq index dropping by 1.7% and mortgage rates experiencing heightened fluctuations [7] - Moody's analysts have warned that such policy uncertainty poses a threat to the stability of the real estate market, while the IMF's chief economist emphasized the need for improved decision-making coordination [9][10] Broader Implications - The ongoing conflicts within the Trump administration have delayed significant policy implementations, including mortgage relief plans and adjustments to first-time homebuyer loan rates, which could undermine international confidence in U.S. economic policies [10][12] - The situation reflects a systemic issue where political infighting hampers effective governance, potentially affecting the U.S. financial system and broader economic stability [12]

Core Viewpoint - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. has risen to 6.34%, marking a continuous increase over the past two weeks, influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds [1][1][1] Mortgage Rate Trends - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage increased from 6.3% a week ago and 6.12% a year ago to 6.34% [1][1][1] - Despite expectations of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, economists predict that the average mortgage rate will remain around 6.5% by the end of the year [1][1][1] Market Impact - The recent decline in mortgage rates over the past few months has boosted potential homebuyers' confidence, leading to an increase in existing home sales [1][1][1] - The ongoing federal government shutdown, resulting from a budget impasse between Republicans and Democrats, could negatively impact the real estate market if it persists [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou has officially launched the "Commercial to Public Loan" policy to allow eligible applicants to convert their commercial housing loans into lower-interest public housing loans, aiming to alleviate the interest burden on borrowers and promote social consumption [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "Commercial to Public Loan" policy will be implemented starting August 21, following the issuance of the "Implementation Measures" by the Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center [1]. - The policy includes a dynamic adjustment mechanism that links the availability of the "Commercial to Public Loan" to the status of housing provident fund funds, with specific thresholds for activation and suspension based on personal housing loan rates [2]. Group 2: Eligibility Criteria - Applicants must currently contribute to the housing provident fund in Guangzhou and have not used any housing provident fund loans nationwide [2][4]. - Specific conditions include having the original commercial loan disbursed for at least 3 years, no overdue records in the past 12 months, and the property being the only residence of the applicant's family in the city [4][5]. Group 3: Loan Calculation and Limits - The loan amount is capped at 70% of the total purchase price of the property, based on the lower of the original purchase price or a re-evaluation price [2][3]. - The loan term must not exceed the remaining term of the original commercial loan, and the total duration of both loans combined cannot exceed 30 years [3]. Group 4: Additional Notes - The policy only applies to fully commercial housing loans being converted to public housing loans, excluding any combination loans [5]. - There are no fees associated with the housing provident fund loan services, including the "Commercial to Public Loan" [5].

Core Points - The Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center has issued a temporary implementation plan for converting commercial personal housing loans to housing provident fund personal housing loans [1] - The plan outlines specific eligibility criteria for applicants, including the requirement that the original commercial loan must be for a self-occupied housing property within the city's administrative area [1] - Additional conditions include that the original commercial loan must have been disbursed for at least three years, and the applicant must be the borrower and property owner [1] Eligibility Criteria - The original commercial loan must not be a combination loan, subsidized loan, or a mortgage for non-purchase purposes [1] - The property must have a real estate ownership certificate and must not have any other mortgage registrations or legal restrictions [1] - The property must be the only housing for the applicant's family in the city, and the original commercial loan must not have any overdue records in the past 12 months [1] - Applicants must have opened an account in the city and contributed to the housing provident fund for at least 60 months [1]

Core Viewpoint - Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, believes that Palantir's stock price needs to drop to $40 or $50 to be considered truly cheap, indicating a potential decline of over 70% from current levels [1][5]. Group 1: Short Selling Palantir - Citron Research has targeted Palantir as the next "retail darling" to short, following the GameStop saga [3]. - Left announced his short position on Palantir, stating that the company is "far beyond the realm of overvaluation" [4]. - Following the announcement, Palantir's stock price fell 1.4% to $184.37, despite a year-to-date increase of 145% and a 12-month rise of 506% [5]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - Left argues that it is contradictory for a big data company to ask investors to ignore valuation metrics, emphasizing that the current stock price remains excessively high even if Palantir is the greatest company ever [9]. - He refutes the notion that Palantir dominates the data analytics field, pointing out that competitors like Databricks are also in the market and have more customers [9]. Group 3: Historical Context - Left had previously included Palantir in his "holiday short list" at the end of 2020, setting a target price of $20, which represented over a 50% decline from then-current levels [10]. - Despite his earlier predictions, Palantir's stock surged due to the AI boom, continuously breaking valuation records since 2024 [11]. Group 4: Broader Investment Views - In addition to shorting Palantir, Left expressed bullish views on Rocket Companies, calling it a potential "Amazon of the housing sector," and expects it to benefit from pent-up housing demand and declining mortgage rates [13]. - Left maintains a bullish stance on Amazon and Apple, which, along with his short position on Palantir, forms a balanced investment strategy [13].