Core Viewpoints - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with revenue of 23.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and Non-GAAP net profit of 1.39 billion, which remained stable year-on-year [1] - The company's GTV reached 843.7 billion, a 34% year-on-year increase, and revenue exceeded market expectations [1] - The decline in profit margin from existing housing business and the increase in fixed salary costs impacted overall profitability [1] Group 1: Existing Housing Performance - Existing housing GTV grew steadily by 28% year-on-year to 580.3 billion, but the overall monetization rate decreased due to a higher contribution from non-chain sources [2] - Revenue from existing housing increased by 20%, which was lower than the GTV growth rate [2] - The contribution profit margin for existing housing dropped by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs and expansion efforts [2] Group 2: New Housing and Other Segments - New housing GTV grew significantly by 53% year-on-year to 232.2 billion, outperforming the market where overall sales declined by 2% [2] - The commission rate for new housing increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, indicating developers' growing reliance on the company's channels [2] - The home decoration segment showed improved profitability, while rental income surged by 94% year-on-year to 5.1 billion, with a contribution profit margin of 6.7% [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a buy rating and adjusts the target price to 56.04 HKD, reflecting its strong market position and potential for growth during the real estate recovery cycle [3] - Adjustments were made to revenue growth rates and profit margins for various business segments, with Non-GAAP EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 updated to 2.06 and 2.68 respectively [3] - The target price corresponds to a 25 times PE ratio based on comparable companies [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and adjusts the target price to HKD 56.04 [2][4] Core Views - The company, as a leading real estate brokerage in China, continues to enhance platform value to strengthen market share advantage, showing significant upward elasticity during the real estate recovery cycle [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of HKD 23.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with Non-GAAP net profit remaining stable at HKD 1.39 billion [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its scale and improving operational efficiency, with expectations for profit margins to recover in the future [5] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: HKD 77.777 billion - 2024A: HKD 93.457 billion - 2025E: HKD 110.080 billion - 2026E: HKD 128.165 billion - 2027E: HKD 146.106 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 28.2%, 20.2%, 17.8%, 16.4%, 14.0% [3] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Operating profit for 2023A: HKD 4.797 billion, with a significant year-on-year growth of 675.9% - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A: HKD 5.883 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 524.5% [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: HKD 1.63 - 2024A: HKD 1.13 - 2025E: HKD 1.36 - 2026E: HKD 1.93 - 2027E: HKD 2.76 [3] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for 2025E: 33.2 - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for 2025E: 2.1 [3] Business Segment Performance - **Existing Home Business**: - GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for existing homes grew by 28% to HKD 5,803 billion, but the contribution margin decreased to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs [5] - **New Home Business**: - GTV for new homes increased by 53% to HKD 2,322 billion, outperforming the market, with a commission rate increase reflecting the value of the company's channels [5] - **Home Decoration and Rental Services**: - Home decoration revenue showed steady growth, while rental income surged by 94% to HKD 5.1 billion, indicating a strong growth phase [5]