智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，首予贝壳-W(02423)买入评级，贝壳作为中国领先的居住服 务平台，凭借独特的ACN合作网络和庞大的"楼盘字典"数据库构筑了坚固的竞争壁垒。公司核心的存量 房和新房业务市占率持续提升，在行业下行期中展现出超额增长。依托强大的平台生态和效率优势，贝 壳在房地产交易服务领域的龙头地位稳固。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 叠加平台覆盖网络扩大，公司GTV实现较行业的超额表现，市占率持续提升。(1)存量房交易服务： 2023/2024/2025H1公司存量房总GTV分别为2/2.2/1.2万亿元，同比分别为28.6%/10.8%/13.7%，2024年市 占率达31.1%，同比提升2.5pct。存量房业务的增长，一方面源于当前房地产行业已步入存量时代，二 手房成交中枢持续上移，奠定公司GTV增长的市场基础;另一方面，公司凭借庞大的人店网络、海量的 房源客源优势，不断吸引新的经纪品牌加入，非链家门店拓展提速，推动市占率稳步提升。(2)新房交 易服务：2023/2024/2025H1公司新房GTV分别为1/0.97/0.49万亿元，同比分别为6.6%/-3.3%/26%，分别 优于全国 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total transaction value (GTV) of 736.7 billion yuan in Q3 2025, remaining flat year-on-year, with net revenue of 23.05 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 750 million yuan, down 36% year-on-year [1][3] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's GTV for existing homes was 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, while new home GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved a gross margin of 21.4% in Q3 2025, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with total sales, management, and R&D expense ratio at 18.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The cash and cash equivalents, restricted funds, and short-term investments totaled 55.7 billion yuan at the end of Q3 2025, down 6.4% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The company’s second-hand housing revenue was 6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 3.6% year-on-year, with a contribution profit of 2.33 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year [2] - The home decoration and rental business saw significant growth, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and rental income at 5.73 billion yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year [2] Market Position and Outlook - The company maintains a strong market position with a stable brokerage business and improving profit margins in emerging sectors, leading to a "buy" rating [3] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward due to declining transaction volumes in the real estate market, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to 3.6 billion, 5.4 billion, and 6.4 billion yuan respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Beike-W (02423) experienced a stock price increase of over 3% following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report, with a current price of HKD 43.6 and a trading volume of HKD 146 million [1] Financial Performance Summary - Total transaction volume for Q3 2025 was RMB 736.7 billion, showing a year-on-year stability [1] - The total transaction volume for existing homes was RMB 505.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [1] - The total transaction volume for new homes was RMB 196.3 billion, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 13.7% [1] - Net revenue reached RMB 23.1 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - Net profit was RMB 747 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 36.1% [1] - Adjusted net profit stood at RMB 1.286 billion, down 27.8% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Analysis - Revenue changes by business segment included: existing homes (-4%), new homes (-14%), home decoration (+2%), and rental services (+45%) [1] - Gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 21.4%, primarily due to a decline in the contribution margin from brokerage income [1] - Adjusted net profit of RMB 1.3 billion exceeded expectations by 5%, attributed to a reduction in home decoration sales expenses [1] Future Outlook - Expectations for Q4 indicate a projected year-on-year revenue decline of 27%, influenced by a high base from the previous year following policy changes [1] - Profitability in 2026 is anticipated to improve significantly, driven by enhanced efficiency in brokerage operations, better margins in home decoration, and increased rental profits due to expanded listings and AI efficiency [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating based on these projections [1]

Summary of Beike's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Beike (贝壳) - **Industry**: Real Estate Key Points and Arguments 1. **Short-term Performance**: Beike's short-term performance is impacted by the downturn in the real estate industry, but management has provided guidance for a gross operating profit margin of over 7% for the next three years and increased the buyback authorization to $5 billion, ensuring a solid cash reserve for investors [2][4][28]. 2. **Business Segmentation**: Beike's operations are divided into direct operations (Lianjia) and franchise operations (Beilian). The non-Lianjia stores have shown rapid growth, with active stores increasing by 35.8% to over 14,000, and active agents growing by 73,000 [2][5]. 3. **Revenue Sources**: Beike's revenue primarily comes from four segments: existing homes (27.5%), new homes (approximately 34%), home decoration (15%), and rental services (over 20%). The new home segment contributes significantly to revenue, while the rental segment is growing rapidly but has lower utilization, affecting overall profit margins [7][10]. 4. **ACN Network**: The ACN network enhances cooperation among agents, increasing overall revenue and attracting small and medium-sized agencies to the platform, which improves commission rates and expands into the new home market [2][12]. 5. **Data Support**: The "Property Dictionary" provides reliable data support, enhancing customer trust and brand image. Beike has committed to four standards for genuine listings and has compensated over 4.6 billion yuan to reinforce its market position [2][13]. 6. **Market Share**: Beike holds approximately 33%-34% market share in the second-hand housing market and about 13% in the new housing market, positioning it as an industry leader [4][10]. 7. **Profitability Trends**: The company's profit margins have fluctuated due to changes in revenue structure, with the rental business being the fastest-growing but with the lowest utilization, which has negatively impacted overall profit margins [8][9]. 8. **Future Strategy**: Beike aims to explore new avenues such as home decoration and rental services, with expectations of profitability in the home decoration segment by 2026 [10][22]. 9. **Competitive Advantages**: Beike's competitive advantages include both soft and hard moats, such as the ACN network and strategic store layouts in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which solidify its market position [11][15]. 10. **Investment Value**: Beike has a cash reserve of approximately 70 billion yuan, leading to a low valuation with a price-to-earnings ratio slightly above 10. The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of at least 5% [28][29]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Conditions**: The current market environment is challenging, but Beike's stock buyback and dividend strategies provide a stable return for investors [29][30]. 2. **Future Performance Expectations**: Despite short-term pressures, Beike's management is optimistic about future performance, projecting a net profit margin exceeding 7% over the next three years [27]. 3. **Policy Impact**: Any policy adjustments in the fourth quarter could significantly benefit Beike, enhancing its potential for performance recovery [30].

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively expanding its main business and new business contributions are continuously improving, while maintaining stable shareholder returns. The non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down due to market uncertainties and strategic adjustments in the home decoration business [1][2]. Group 1: Business Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's revenue reached 26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, which is in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 1.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32.4%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations of 1.72 billion yuan [1]. - The existing housing segment saw a GTV growth of 2.2% year-on-year, but revenue declined by 8.4% due to increased contribution from ACN store transactions and incentive reductions for stores [1]. - The new housing segment demonstrated channel advantages with a GTV growth of 8.5% year-on-year and revenue growth of 8.6%, with fee rates remaining stable [1]. - New business in home decoration and home furnishing focused on quality delivery, with revenue growth of 13.0% year-on-year, while the rental business saw a 78% increase in revenue [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its store network and franchise brands to drive market share growth, while continuously optimizing the home decoration business to enhance product and delivery quality [2]. - The company has extended its existing share repurchase plan to 5 billion USD, with a deadline extended to August 31, 2028, and a remaining repurchase scale of 2.98 billion USD as of June 2025, representing approximately 13.5% of the current market value [2]. - The company aims to improve service quality in the home decoration business as foundational capabilities are enhanced, with expectations of narrowing loss rates [2].

Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of RMB 49.3 billion for the first half of 2025, a 24.1% increase from RMB 39.7 billion in the same period of 2024 [1] - The net profit for the first half of 2025 was RMB 2.162 billion, down from RMB 2.333 billion in 2024, while the adjusted net profit was RMB 3.214 billion, compared to RMB 4.086 billion in 2024 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total transaction value for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 1,722.4 billion, a 17.3% increase from RMB 1,468.9 billion in 2024 [1] - The total transaction value for existing homes was RMB 1,163.8 billion, up 13.7% from RMB 1,023.8 billion in 2024 [1] - The total transaction value for new homes was RMB 487.6 billion, reflecting a 26.0% increase from RMB 387.1 billion in 2024 [1] Group 2: Operational Metrics - The number of stores as of June 30, 2025, was 60,546, a 31.8% increase from 45,948 stores as of June 30, 2024 [1] - The number of active stores reached 58,664, up 32.1% from 44,423 active stores in 2024 [1] - The number of agents as of June 30, 2025, was 557,974, a 21.6% increase from 458,690 agents in 2024 [2] Group 3: User Engagement - The average monthly active users for the three months ending June 30, 2025, was 48.7 million, slightly down from 49.7 million in the same period of 2024 [2] - The number of active agents as of June 30, 2025, was 491,573, a 19.5% increase from 411,478 active agents in 2024 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $22.15 [1][5][29] Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with the company expected to see a 12% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, reaching 26.3 billion RMB [5] - The adjusted net profit is projected to decline by 33% year-on-year to 1.79 billion RMB in Q2 2025, primarily due to the overall slowdown in the real estate sector [5][10] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to improve its operating profit margin sequentially, driven by enhanced efficiency in stores and agents, as well as the continued advantages in its home decoration business [5][10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 102.59 billion RMB, 115.78 billion RMB, and 128.57 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10.8%, 12.5%, and 14.1% from previous estimates [4][25][27] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is revised to 7.02 billion RMB, down 14.6% from earlier forecasts, with further adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [25][27] Business Segment Performance - The company anticipates a 14% year-on-year growth in its home decoration business in Q2 2025, with a potential for breakeven in quarterly earnings due to increased order volumes and cost efficiencies [8][9] - The real estate transaction services are expected to show mixed results, with existing home transaction services projected to decline by 3%, while new home transaction services are expected to grow by 13% [5][10] Market Conditions - The report highlights a weakening in the real estate market, with inventory pressures and a prolonged de-stocking cycle affecting sales [6][14] - Recent policy changes in Beijing aimed at easing purchase restrictions are expected to temporarily boost transaction activity, particularly in the outer districts [7][23]

Core Viewpoints - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with revenue of 23.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and Non-GAAP net profit of 1.39 billion, which remained stable year-on-year [1] - The company's GTV reached 843.7 billion, a 34% year-on-year increase, and revenue exceeded market expectations [1] - The decline in profit margin from existing housing business and the increase in fixed salary costs impacted overall profitability [1] Group 1: Existing Housing Performance - Existing housing GTV grew steadily by 28% year-on-year to 580.3 billion, but the overall monetization rate decreased due to a higher contribution from non-chain sources [2] - Revenue from existing housing increased by 20%, which was lower than the GTV growth rate [2] - The contribution profit margin for existing housing dropped by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs and expansion efforts [2] Group 2: New Housing and Other Segments - New housing GTV grew significantly by 53% year-on-year to 232.2 billion, outperforming the market where overall sales declined by 2% [2] - The commission rate for new housing increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, indicating developers' growing reliance on the company's channels [2] - The home decoration segment showed improved profitability, while rental income surged by 94% year-on-year to 5.1 billion, with a contribution profit margin of 6.7% [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a buy rating and adjusts the target price to 56.04 HKD, reflecting its strong market position and potential for growth during the real estate recovery cycle [3] - Adjustments were made to revenue growth rates and profit margins for various business segments, with Non-GAAP EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 updated to 2.06 and 2.68 respectively [3] - The target price corresponds to a 25 times PE ratio based on comparable companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, while the Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.39 billion yuan, remaining basically flat year-on-year. The growth in revenue was primarily driven by new housing and rental businesses, while the lower profit growth was due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin existing housing business, leading to a decline in overall gross margin by 4.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, revenue from existing housing, new housing, home decoration, and rental businesses was 6.9 billion, 8.1 billion, 2.9 billion, and 5.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +20.0%, +64.2%, +22.3%, and +93.8%. The new housing and rental businesses were the main contributors to the rapid revenue growth [2]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 was 20.7%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year and down 2.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. This decline was mainly due to the reduced proportion of existing housing business in total revenue, which accounted for 29.5% in Q1, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Expansion - As of the end of Q1, the number of stores on the platform reached nearly 57,000, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, and the number of agents reached nearly 550,000, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. This continuous expansion of stores and agents contributed to a significant increase in the company's GTV, which totaled 843.7 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 34.0% [2]. - The GTV for existing housing transactions was 580.3 billion yuan, up 28.1% year-on-year, while new housing transactions reached 232.2 billion yuan, up 53.0%, significantly outperforming the national year-on-year decline of 2.1% in commodity housing sales [2]. Financial Position - As of the end of Q1, the company had a cash balance of 12.77 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% from the end of 2024. In Q1, the company repurchased shares worth 140 million USD, accounting for 0.6% of the total share capital at the end of 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, while the Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.39 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [2][3][14]. - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by new housing and rental businesses, while the profit growth was limited due to a decrease in the proportion of higher-margin existing housing business, leading to a decline in overall gross margin by 4.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3][4][11]. - The company continues to expand its store and agent numbers, with over 57,000 stores and nearly 550,000 agents on the platform by the end of Q1, contributing to a significant increase in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 23.33 billion yuan, up 42.4% year-on-year, with existing housing, new housing, home decoration, and rental businesses generating revenues of 6.9 billion, 8.1 billion, 2.9 billion, and 5.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +20.0%, +64.2%, +22.3%, and +93.8% [3][14]. - The company's overall gross margin was 20.7%, down 4.5 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to a decrease in the contribution of existing housing business to total revenue [3][17]. Business Expansion - As of the end of Q1, the company had approximately 57,000 stores, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, and nearly 550,000 agents, up 24.3% year-on-year [4][11]. - The total GTV for Q1 was 843.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, with existing housing GTV at 580.3 billion yuan (up 28.1%) and new housing GTV at 232.2 billion yuan (up 53.0%) [4][11]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong cash reserve of 12.77 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% from the end of 2024, and repurchased shares worth 140 million USD in Q1, accounting for 0.6% of the total share capital at the end of 2024 [11].