截至2025年6月30日止六个月，总交易额为人民币17,224亿元，较2024年同期的人民币14,689亿元增加 17.3%。截至2025年6月30日止六个月，存量房交易的总交易额为人民币11,638亿元，较2024年同期的人 民币10,238亿元增加13.7%。截至2025年6月30日止六个月，新房交易的总交易额为人民币4,876亿元， 较2024年同期的人民币3,871亿元增加26.0%。 截至2025年6月30日门店数量为60,546家，较截至2024年6月30日的45,948家增加31.8%。截至2025年6月 30日活跃门店数量3为58,664家，较截至2024年6月30日的44,423家增加32.1%。 格隆汇8月26日丨贝壳-W(02423.HK)公布中期业绩，2025年上半年，由于总交易额增加及家装家居及房 屋租赁业务扩张，集团净收入为人民币493亿元，较2024年同期的人民币397亿元增加24.1%；净利润为 人民币21.62亿元，而2024年同期为人民币23.33亿元；经调整净利润为人民币32.14亿元，而2024年同期 为人民币40.86亿元。 截至2025年6月30日止三个月，移动月活 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $22.15 [1][5][29] Core Insights - The real estate industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with the company expected to see a 12% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, reaching 26.3 billion RMB [5] - The adjusted net profit is projected to decline by 33% year-on-year to 1.79 billion RMB in Q2 2025, primarily due to the overall slowdown in the real estate sector [5][10] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to improve its operating profit margin sequentially, driven by enhanced efficiency in stores and agents, as well as the continued advantages in its home decoration business [5][10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 102.59 billion RMB, 115.78 billion RMB, and 128.57 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10.8%, 12.5%, and 14.1% from previous estimates [4][25][27] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is revised to 7.02 billion RMB, down 14.6% from earlier forecasts, with further adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [25][27] Business Segment Performance - The company anticipates a 14% year-on-year growth in its home decoration business in Q2 2025, with a potential for breakeven in quarterly earnings due to increased order volumes and cost efficiencies [8][9] - The real estate transaction services are expected to show mixed results, with existing home transaction services projected to decline by 3%, while new home transaction services are expected to grow by 13% [5][10] Market Conditions - The report highlights a weakening in the real estate market, with inventory pressures and a prolonged de-stocking cycle affecting sales [6][14] - Recent policy changes in Beijing aimed at easing purchase restrictions are expected to temporarily boost transaction activity, particularly in the outer districts [7][23]

Core Viewpoints - The company reported Q1 2025 earnings with revenue of 23.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and Non-GAAP net profit of 1.39 billion, which remained stable year-on-year [1] - The company's GTV reached 843.7 billion, a 34% year-on-year increase, and revenue exceeded market expectations [1] - The decline in profit margin from existing housing business and the increase in fixed salary costs impacted overall profitability [1] Group 1: Existing Housing Performance - Existing housing GTV grew steadily by 28% year-on-year to 580.3 billion, but the overall monetization rate decreased due to a higher contribution from non-chain sources [2] - Revenue from existing housing increased by 20%, which was lower than the GTV growth rate [2] - The contribution profit margin for existing housing dropped by 6.4 percentage points year-on-year to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs and expansion efforts [2] Group 2: New Housing and Other Segments - New housing GTV grew significantly by 53% year-on-year to 232.2 billion, outperforming the market where overall sales declined by 2% [2] - The commission rate for new housing increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, indicating developers' growing reliance on the company's channels [2] - The home decoration segment showed improved profitability, while rental income surged by 94% year-on-year to 5.1 billion, with a contribution profit margin of 6.7% [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a buy rating and adjusts the target price to 56.04 HKD, reflecting its strong market position and potential for growth during the real estate recovery cycle [3] - Adjustments were made to revenue growth rates and profit margins for various business segments, with Non-GAAP EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 updated to 2.06 and 2.68 respectively [3] - The target price corresponds to a 25 times PE ratio based on comparable companies [3]

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, while the Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.39 billion yuan, remaining basically flat year-on-year. The growth in revenue was primarily driven by new housing and rental businesses, while the lower profit growth was due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin existing housing business, leading to a decline in overall gross margin by 4.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, revenue from existing housing, new housing, home decoration, and rental businesses was 6.9 billion, 8.1 billion, 2.9 billion, and 5.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +20.0%, +64.2%, +22.3%, and +93.8%. The new housing and rental businesses were the main contributors to the rapid revenue growth [2]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 was 20.7%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year and down 2.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. This decline was mainly due to the reduced proportion of existing housing business in total revenue, which accounted for 29.5% in Q1, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Expansion - As of the end of Q1, the number of stores on the platform reached nearly 57,000, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, and the number of agents reached nearly 550,000, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. This continuous expansion of stores and agents contributed to a significant increase in the company's GTV, which totaled 843.7 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 34.0% [2]. - The GTV for existing housing transactions was 580.3 billion yuan, up 28.1% year-on-year, while new housing transactions reached 232.2 billion yuan, up 53.0%, significantly outperforming the national year-on-year decline of 2.1% in commodity housing sales [2]. Financial Position - As of the end of Q1, the company had a cash balance of 12.77 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% from the end of 2024. In Q1, the company repurchased shares worth 140 million USD, accounting for 0.6% of the total share capital at the end of 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, while the Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.39 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [2][3][14]. - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by new housing and rental businesses, while the profit growth was limited due to a decrease in the proportion of higher-margin existing housing business, leading to a decline in overall gross margin by 4.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3][4][11]. - The company continues to expand its store and agent numbers, with over 57,000 stores and nearly 550,000 agents on the platform by the end of Q1, contributing to a significant increase in Gross Transaction Value (GTV) [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 23.33 billion yuan, up 42.4% year-on-year, with existing housing, new housing, home decoration, and rental businesses generating revenues of 6.9 billion, 8.1 billion, 2.9 billion, and 5.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +20.0%, +64.2%, +22.3%, and +93.8% [3][14]. - The company's overall gross margin was 20.7%, down 4.5 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to a decrease in the contribution of existing housing business to total revenue [3][17]. Business Expansion - As of the end of Q1, the company had approximately 57,000 stores, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, and nearly 550,000 agents, up 24.3% year-on-year [4][11]. - The total GTV for Q1 was 843.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.0%, with existing housing GTV at 580.3 billion yuan (up 28.1%) and new housing GTV at 232.2 billion yuan (up 53.0%) [4][11]. Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong cash reserve of 12.77 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% from the end of 2024, and repurchased shares worth 140 million USD in Q1, accounting for 0.6% of the total share capital at the end of 2024 [11].