Core Insights - Beike (BEKE.US) shares rose over 3% to $18.16 following the release of its financial report for the first half of 2025, which showed a total transaction volume of 1.7224 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] - The company reported a net income of 49.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1%, while net profit was 2.162 billion yuan, slightly down from 2.333 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Industry Context - The performance of Beike in the first half of 2025 is influenced by two main factors: on a macro level, the overall transaction volume in China's real estate market remained stable, although the market entered an adjustment phase in the second quarter [1] - On a micro level, Beike welcomed several large and medium-sized real estate brokerage brands, leading to an increase in active stores to 58,664, which is over 32% year-on-year growth, and active agents reached 491,573, marking a growth of over 19% [1]

Core Viewpoint - I Love My Home (我爱我家) reported a net profit of 38.4 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a 30.8% increase year-on-year, and a non-net profit of 49.9 million yuan, up 213.89% year-on-year, demonstrating resilience in a challenging industry environment [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company focuses on core city operations, emphasizing a "precision farming" approach, which has become increasingly significant amid macroeconomic and policy challenges [2] - I Love My Home has deepened its presence in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou for over 20 years, with a total of 859,000 second-hand housing listings across 10 cities as of August 7, 2025 [2] - The company has maintained a strong market share in major cities, with continuous growth in Shanghai and stable positions in Beijing and Hangzhou [2][3] Group 2: Management Team - The management team at I Love My Home is experienced, with an average tenure exceeding 10 years, providing stability and insight during market fluctuations [4] - Many leaders have over 15 years of experience in key cities, having risen from frontline positions, which fosters a strong alignment with the company's culture and strategic goals [4] Group 3: Talent Development - The company invests continuously in talent development, viewing agents as core assets, which supports its resilience during industry adjustments [5][6] - I Love My Home has established a robust talent pipeline with clear selection and evaluation standards, ensuring high-quality personnel across various management levels [6] - Initiatives like the "Spark Plan" and leadership academy are in place to cultivate future leaders and maintain organizational vitality [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a stable revenue growth with a 24.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 49.34 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7.3% to 2.16 billion yuan [4][7]. - The total transaction volume reached 1.7224 trillion yuan, reflecting a 17.3% year-on-year growth [4]. - The company has expanded its share buyback program, increasing the authorization from 3 billion USD to 5 billion USD, demonstrating confidence in its future development [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin was 21.3%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, but improved by 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter in Q2 [7]. - The operating expense ratio decreased to 18% in H1 2025, down 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company reported a net income of 2.16 billion yuan for H1 2025, with an adjusted net profit of 3.21 billion yuan, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [4][7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 100.934 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.0% [6][11]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 4.962 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.1% increase from the previous year [6][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory with a projected net profit of 6.417 billion yuan by 2027 [6][11]. Business Segments Performance - The real estate brokerage segment showed a total transaction volume of 1.1638 trillion yuan in H1 2025, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, with net income of 13.59 billion yuan, up 4% [7][8]. - The home decoration and rental services segments have also shown significant growth, with rental service revenue increasing by 85.2% year-on-year [8][9]. Shareholder Returns - The company has committed to returning value to shareholders through an expanded share buyback program, which is expected to enhance shareholder confidence and support stock performance [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate market in Wuhan is undergoing a significant adjustment period, with a 5.3% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment, leading to increased pressure on both developers and real estate agents [1][3] Group 2 - The challenges during the market adjustment include decreased investment and sales pressure, indicating a lack of market confidence and making buyers more cautious [3] - The uncertainty in the policy environment requires real estate agents to stay updated on policy changes to adapt their strategies and provide accurate advice to clients [4] Group 3 - Real estate agents are advised to enhance their professional service capabilities, as clients are now more demanding regarding expertise during tough market conditions [4] - Utilizing technology tools to improve efficiency is crucial, with online platforms and data analysis helping agents better understand client needs and disseminate information [5] - Strengthening client relationship management is essential, as maintaining connections with existing clients can lead to future opportunities when the market improves [6] Group 4 - Opportunities during the market adjustment may arise from potential government policy changes aimed at stimulating the market, which agents should be ready to capitalize on [8] - Market segmentation presents opportunities, as focusing on specific niches, such as school district properties or older urban second-hand homes, can provide a competitive advantage [10] Group 5 - Overall, while the adjustment period poses challenges for real estate agents in Wuhan, it also presents opportunities for those who enhance their skills, leverage technology, and manage client relationships effectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and adjusts the target price to HKD 56.04 [2][4] Core Views - The company, as a leading real estate brokerage in China, continues to enhance platform value to strengthen market share advantage, showing significant upward elasticity during the real estate recovery cycle [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of HKD 23.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with Non-GAAP net profit remaining stable at HKD 1.39 billion [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its scale and improving operational efficiency, with expectations for profit margins to recover in the future [5] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: HKD 77.777 billion - 2024A: HKD 93.457 billion - 2025E: HKD 110.080 billion - 2026E: HKD 128.165 billion - 2027E: HKD 146.106 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 28.2%, 20.2%, 17.8%, 16.4%, 14.0% [3][8] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Operating profit for 2023A: HKD 4.797 billion, with a significant year-on-year growth of 675.9% - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A: HKD 5.883 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 524.5% [3][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: HKD 1.63 - 2024A: HKD 1.13 - 2025E: HKD 1.36 - 2026E: HKD 1.93 - 2027E: HKD 2.76 [3][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for 2025E: 33.2 - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for 2025E: 2.1 [3][8] Business Segment Performance - **Existing Home Business**: - GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for existing homes grew by 28% to HKD 5,803 billion, but the contribution margin decreased to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs [5] - **New Home Business**: - GTV for new homes increased by 53% to HKD 2,322 billion, outperforming the market, with a commission rate increase reflecting the value of the company's channels [5] - **Home Decoration and Rental Services**: - Home decoration revenue showed steady growth, while rental income surged by 94% to HKD 5.1 billion, indicating a strong growth phase [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and adjusts the target price to HKD 56.04 [2][4] Core Views - The company, as a leading real estate brokerage in China, continues to enhance platform value to strengthen market share advantage, showing significant upward elasticity during the real estate recovery cycle [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of HKD 23.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with Non-GAAP net profit remaining stable at HKD 1.39 billion [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its scale and improving operational efficiency, with expectations for profit margins to recover in the future [5] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: HKD 77.777 billion - 2024A: HKD 93.457 billion - 2025E: HKD 110.080 billion - 2026E: HKD 128.165 billion - 2027E: HKD 146.106 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 28.2%, 20.2%, 17.8%, 16.4%, 14.0% [3] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Operating profit for 2023A: HKD 4.797 billion, with a significant year-on-year growth of 675.9% - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A: HKD 5.883 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 524.5% [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: HKD 1.63 - 2024A: HKD 1.13 - 2025E: HKD 1.36 - 2026E: HKD 1.93 - 2027E: HKD 2.76 [3] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for 2025E: 33.2 - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for 2025E: 2.1 [3] Business Segment Performance - **Existing Home Business**: - GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for existing homes grew by 28% to HKD 5,803 billion, but the contribution margin decreased to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs [5] - **New Home Business**: - GTV for new homes increased by 53% to HKD 2,322 billion, outperforming the market, with a commission rate increase reflecting the value of the company's channels [5] - **Home Decoration and Rental Services**: - Home decoration revenue showed steady growth, while rental income surged by 94% to HKD 5.1 billion, indicating a strong growth phase [5]