Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Henan Province Housing and Urban-Rural Development System Employee Skills Competition and the Second Provincial Real Estate Agent Skills Competition will take place from November 4 to 5, aiming to enhance the professional capabilities of real estate agents and promote the industry's professional development [1]. Group 1 - The event is organized by the Henan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other local associations, highlighting its significance in testing the professional skills of real estate agents [1]. - The "Zhengzhou First Representative Team," composed of top talents from new brokerage brands, will compete, showcasing their extensive experience and deep understanding of the Zhengzhou real estate market [3]. - The competition includes four core segments: theoretical examination, case analysis, live presentations, and team quizzes, covering essential scenarios in real estate brokerage services [7]. Group 2 - The competition serves as a platform for real estate agents to demonstrate their skills and aims to elevate the service standards within the industry, ultimately benefiting consumers in Henan [7]. - The emphasis on professional capability is underscored by the belief that quality service in the real estate industry relies on the expertise of its practitioners [5]. - The event is seen as an opportunity to set industry benchmarks and encourage more professionals to aspire to excellence, thereby enhancing the overall service quality in the real estate sector [7].

Core Insights - The recent "2025 Community Good Neighbor Festival" organized by the leading real estate brokerage company, I Love My Home, aimed to enhance community engagement and provide real estate services while promoting a better community environment [1] Group 1: Community Engagement Activities - The "Community Review" initiative was launched in Beijing to encourage residents to provide feedback on their living conditions, collecting 3,680 reviews that highlighted positive aspects such as harmonious neighbor relationships and convenient transportation [3] - The festival included various community welfare activities, such as real estate lectures and practical workshops, to bring convenience and warmth to residents [3] Group 2: Social Responsibility and Service Model - The festival is part of I Love My Home's 25-year commitment to community service, extending its "Good Neighbor Service" model, which encompasses real estate consulting, convenience services, community integration, and care [5] - During the event, "Public Real Estate Corners" were established in 100 communities, providing one-on-one professional services to 15,000 residents, addressing key concerns about real estate transactions [5] Group 3: Comprehensive Community Support - I Love My Home has built a service network through nearly 800 community stores, offering a range of convenience services and fostering community interaction through various activities [6] - Over the past three years, the company has provided services to over 100,000 families and organized more than 1,000 community events, distributing care packages and gifts to enhance community well-being [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Beike-W (02423), projecting revenue growth from 103.3 billion yuan in 2025 to 130.6 billion yuan in 2027, driven by the company's leading position in the real estate brokerage market and expansion into diversified businesses like home decoration and furniture [1][2]. Group 1 - The company holds a solid leading position in the brokerage sector, with significant growth potential in the second-hand housing market [2]. - The company's second-hand housing transaction volume is expected to grow by 13.7% year-on-year to 1.1638 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, contributing to a 4.0% increase in second-hand housing revenue to 13.6 billion yuan [2]. - The market share of the company's new housing business has been steadily increasing, reaching 12.6% as of June 30, 2025, with a prepaid commission model reducing accounts receivable risk [2]. Group 2 - The company is expanding its three wings of business, creating new growth opportunities, particularly in the home decoration sector, which is characterized by a vast market potential [2]. - The home decoration industry in China has historically lacked large-scale enterprises due to its non-standardized, low-frequency, and bulk nature, but the company aims to leverage its brokerage business's customer acquisition advantages and strong brand effect to address trust issues in the traditional home decoration market [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Beike-W (02423), is expected to benefit from the vast potential of China's second-hand housing market, maintaining a "buy" rating with projected revenues of 103.3 billion, 117.1 billion, and 130.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [1] - The company is anticipated to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of 7.4 billion, 8.8 billion, and 10.8 billion yuan for the same period, indicating profit elasticity due to diversification into home decoration and furniture businesses [1] - The company's leading position in the real estate brokerage sector is solid, with a significant growth potential in the second-hand housing business, which is expected to stabilize first in the current industry cycle [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its three wings of business, particularly in the home decoration sector, which is seen as a second growth curve due to the vast market space in China [2] - The home decoration industry has historically lacked large-scale enterprises due to its non-standardized, low-frequency, and bulk nature, but the company aims to leverage its brokerage business to reduce customer acquisition costs and enhance brand effect [2] - The company's standardized capabilities and operational model are expected to effectively address trust issues in the traditional home decoration industry, positioning it well for future integration [2]

Core Insights - The company maintains a strong position in the brokerage sector, with significant growth potential in the second-hand housing market and a steady increase in market share for new housing [1] - The company's second-hand housing transaction volume increased by 13.7% year-on-year to 1,163.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, leading to a 4.0% rise in second-hand housing business revenue to 13.6 billion yuan [1] - The market share for new housing transactions reached 12.6% as of June 30, 2025, with a prepaid commission model reducing accounts receivable risk [1] Business Expansion - The company is exploring new growth opportunities through its "three wings" business strategy, particularly in the home decoration sector, which has significant market potential [1] - The home decoration industry has historically struggled to develop large-scale enterprises due to its non-standardized, low-frequency, and bulk nature [1] - The company leverages its extensive brokerage business to achieve low customer acquisition costs and strong brand effects, aiming to address trust issues in the traditional home decoration industry [1] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 103.3 billion yuan, 117.1 billion yuan, and 130.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for the same period are 7.4 billion yuan, 8.8 billion yuan, and 10.8 billion yuan [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the broad market potential in the second-hand housing sector and its diversified business expansion, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Core Insights - Beike (BEKE.US) shares rose over 3% to $18.16 following the release of its financial report for the first half of 2025, which showed a total transaction volume of 1.7224 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] - The company reported a net income of 49.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.1%, while net profit was 2.162 billion yuan, slightly down from 2.333 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Industry Context - The performance of Beike in the first half of 2025 is influenced by two main factors: on a macro level, the overall transaction volume in China's real estate market remained stable, although the market entered an adjustment phase in the second quarter [1] - On a micro level, Beike welcomed several large and medium-sized real estate brokerage brands, leading to an increase in active stores to 58,664, which is over 32% year-on-year growth, and active agents reached 491,573, marking a growth of over 19% [1]

Core Viewpoint - I Love My Home (我爱我家) reported a net profit of 38.4 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a 30.8% increase year-on-year, and a non-net profit of 49.9 million yuan, up 213.89% year-on-year, demonstrating resilience in a challenging industry environment [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company focuses on core city operations, emphasizing a "precision farming" approach, which has become increasingly significant amid macroeconomic and policy challenges [2] - I Love My Home has deepened its presence in key cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou for over 20 years, with a total of 859,000 second-hand housing listings across 10 cities as of August 7, 2025 [2] - The company has maintained a strong market share in major cities, with continuous growth in Shanghai and stable positions in Beijing and Hangzhou [2][3] Group 2: Management Team - The management team at I Love My Home is experienced, with an average tenure exceeding 10 years, providing stability and insight during market fluctuations [4] - Many leaders have over 15 years of experience in key cities, having risen from frontline positions, which fosters a strong alignment with the company's culture and strategic goals [4] Group 3: Talent Development - The company invests continuously in talent development, viewing agents as core assets, which supports its resilience during industry adjustments [5][6] - I Love My Home has established a robust talent pipeline with clear selection and evaluation standards, ensuring high-quality personnel across various management levels [6] - Initiatives like the "Spark Plan" and leadership academy are in place to cultivate future leaders and maintain organizational vitality [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a stable revenue growth with a 24.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 49.34 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7.3% to 2.16 billion yuan [4][7]. - The total transaction volume reached 1.7224 trillion yuan, reflecting a 17.3% year-on-year growth [4]. - The company has expanded its share buyback program, increasing the authorization from 3 billion USD to 5 billion USD, demonstrating confidence in its future development [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin was 21.3%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, but improved by 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter in Q2 [7]. - The operating expense ratio decreased to 18% in H1 2025, down 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company reported a net income of 2.16 billion yuan for H1 2025, with an adjusted net profit of 3.21 billion yuan, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [4][7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 100.934 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.0% [6][11]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 4.962 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.1% increase from the previous year [6][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory with a projected net profit of 6.417 billion yuan by 2027 [6][11]. Business Segments Performance - The real estate brokerage segment showed a total transaction volume of 1.1638 trillion yuan in H1 2025, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, with net income of 13.59 billion yuan, up 4% [7][8]. - The home decoration and rental services segments have also shown significant growth, with rental service revenue increasing by 85.2% year-on-year [8][9]. Shareholder Returns - The company has committed to returning value to shareholders through an expanded share buyback program, which is expected to enhance shareholder confidence and support stock performance [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the real estate market in Wuhan is undergoing a significant adjustment period, with a 5.3% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment, leading to increased pressure on both developers and real estate agents [1][3] Group 2 - The challenges during the market adjustment include decreased investment and sales pressure, indicating a lack of market confidence and making buyers more cautious [3] - The uncertainty in the policy environment requires real estate agents to stay updated on policy changes to adapt their strategies and provide accurate advice to clients [4] Group 3 - Real estate agents are advised to enhance their professional service capabilities, as clients are now more demanding regarding expertise during tough market conditions [4] - Utilizing technology tools to improve efficiency is crucial, with online platforms and data analysis helping agents better understand client needs and disseminate information [5] - Strengthening client relationship management is essential, as maintaining connections with existing clients can lead to future opportunities when the market improves [6] Group 4 - Opportunities during the market adjustment may arise from potential government policy changes aimed at stimulating the market, which agents should be ready to capitalize on [8] - Market segmentation presents opportunities, as focusing on specific niches, such as school district properties or older urban second-hand homes, can provide a competitive advantage [10] Group 5 - Overall, while the adjustment period poses challenges for real estate agents in Wuhan, it also presents opportunities for those who enhance their skills, leverage technology, and manage client relationships effectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company and adjusts the target price to HKD 56.04 [2][4] Core Views - The company, as a leading real estate brokerage in China, continues to enhance platform value to strengthen market share advantage, showing significant upward elasticity during the real estate recovery cycle [2] - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of HKD 23.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with Non-GAAP net profit remaining stable at HKD 1.39 billion [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its scale and improving operational efficiency, with expectations for profit margins to recover in the future [5] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: HKD 77.777 billion - 2024A: HKD 93.457 billion - 2025E: HKD 110.080 billion - 2026E: HKD 128.165 billion - 2027E: HKD 146.106 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 28.2%, 20.2%, 17.8%, 16.4%, 14.0% [3][8] - **Profitability Metrics**: - Operating profit for 2023A: HKD 4.797 billion, with a significant year-on-year growth of 675.9% - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A: HKD 5.883 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 524.5% [3][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: HKD 1.63 - 2024A: HKD 1.13 - 2025E: HKD 1.36 - 2026E: HKD 1.93 - 2027E: HKD 2.76 [3][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for 2025E: 33.2 - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for 2025E: 2.1 [3][8] Business Segment Performance - **Existing Home Business**: - GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for existing homes grew by 28% to HKD 5,803 billion, but the contribution margin decreased to 38% due to increased fixed salary costs [5] - **New Home Business**: - GTV for new homes increased by 53% to HKD 2,322 billion, outperforming the market, with a commission rate increase reflecting the value of the company's channels [5] - **Home Decoration and Rental Services**: - Home decoration revenue showed steady growth, while rental income surged by 94% to HKD 5.1 billion, indicating a strong growth phase [5]