Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The price of finished steel products is in a small - range shock consolidation, with a doji candlestick in price, and the weak downstream demand is the key factor dragging down steel prices. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the spot market is gradually entering the holiday rhythm, and there may still be funds leaving the market, leading to a decline in market trading. The macro - level is calm and has little impact on prices. The raw materials are expected to run weakly in a shock, and attention should be paid to the 3000 support level for rebar. [2][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Steel Products - As of February 11, 2026, only two domestic hot - rolled strip steel producers have introduced winter storage preferential policies, both for internal agreement customers and surrounding strategic customers, and the rest of the steel mills have not introduced such policies and will follow the usual sales policies during the Spring Festival. This week, the average tax - free hot - metal cost and the average tax - included billet cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan have decreased slightly, and the loss per ton of steel mills has increased by 10 yuan compared with the ex - factory price of common billets at 2,900 yuan/ton. [3] - The price of finished steel products is in small - range shock consolidation, and the weak downstream demand drags down prices. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market enters the holiday rhythm, with possible fund outflows and reduced trading. The macro - level is calm and has little impact on prices. [2][4] Raw Materials - The raw materials are expected to run weakly in a shock, and attention should be paid to the 3000 support level for rebar. The later - stage concerns are macro policies and downstream demand. [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various commodities having different outlooks, including oscillations, weakening, strengthening, and stable trends. For example, some commodities like rubber are expected to be oscillating and strengthening, while others like PVC are likely to experience weak oscillations [2][14][67]. - Geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran negotiations and the situation in the Middle East have an impact on the energy and chemical markets, causing uncertainties in prices and supply - demand dynamics [6][21]. - The demand and supply fundamentals of different commodities vary. For instance, in the PX - PTA - MEG industrial chain, the supply and demand patterns of each product are affected by factors like device maintenance, production rates, and downstream demand [12][13]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: It is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The monthly spread is in a reverse arbitrage situation. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain gradually weakens. The PX operating rate rises, and the PXN processing fee is continuously compressed. It is recommended to short the PTA processing fee when it is above 450 [12]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short the PTA processing fee when it is above 450. The terminal demand has mixed performance, and the polyester operating rate is expected to pick up in March. Multiple devices have announced maintenance plans [12]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. Conduct reverse arbitrage operations on the basis and monthly spread. The supply has increased this week, but overseas supply is expected to decrease in March. The demand side has seen large - scale shutdowns of polyester, resulting in significant inventory accumulation pressure in February [13]. Rubber - It is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The futures prices of rubber have increased, and the spot prices of various rubber varieties have also risen slightly. The inventory in the Qingdao area has increased, and the semi - steel tire enterprises are in different production stages [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in an oscillating state. The futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of synthetic rubber have changed. The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased, and the butadiene port inventory has also declined [17][18]. LLDPE - The spot trading has stagnated, and due to capital risk - aversion, it is in an oscillating market. The raw material oil price has stabilized after a decline, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the downstream demand has mixed performance. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the destocking rate after the holiday [20][21]. PP - The C3 raw materials are relatively strong, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost side has oscillations, the supply side has no new production before the 2605 contract, and the demand side has limited support. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [23][24]. Caustic Soda - The cost has increased, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous logic of short - selling caustic soda profits may be challenged. The demand side has a weak pattern, and the supply side may see production cuts and load reduction after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [28]. Pulp - It is in an oscillating state. The trading in the pulp market is light, and the downstream paper mills' purchasing activities have basically stopped. The market lacks driving factors, and attention should be paid to port inventory data and macro - market impacts [33][34]. Glass - The price of the original glass sheet is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume has decreased, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market trading is light [40][41]. Methanol - It is in an oscillating state. The methanol spot price index has adjusted regionally. The port inventory has decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a relatively high level. The MTO fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to be limited in both upward and downward directions [46][47]. Urea - It is oscillating with support. The support comes from the improvement in spot trading driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival. The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level at around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level at around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [49][50]. Styrene - It is in a high - level oscillating state. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, which stimulates the return of zombie production capacity. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival, and the pure benzene pattern is expected to improve after the second quarter [51][52]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, the enterprise devices are operating stably, the supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand has basically completed pre - holiday stocking. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [53][54]. LPG - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward [57]. Propylene - The spot price is stable, and the basis is converging. The futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of LPG and propylene have changed, and the industrial chain operating rates have also fluctuated [58]. PVC - It is in a weakly oscillating state. The PVC spot market is stable, but the supply - demand is weak, and the export atmosphere has weakened. The industry is still accumulating inventory. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may continue to be under pressure before the holiday [65][66]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term volatility is decreasing. The low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened in the night session, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is still at a low level [68]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in an oscillating state. The futures prices of the container freight index (European line) have declined, and the spot market freight rate is stable before the holiday. The 2604 contract has a weak supply - demand balance in March - April, and the 2610 contract has a reference pressure level. It is recommended to wait and see for now [70][78]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Both short - fiber and bottle - chip are in a short - term oscillating state. The short - fiber futures are oscillating strongly, but the downstream is on holiday, and the trading volume is small. The bottle - chip factory has raised the quotation, but the market trading atmosphere is average [81][82]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. The prices of offset printing paper in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable. The large - scale paper mills are producing stably, some small and medium - sized paper mills have shut down, and the market is on holiday [84][85]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strongly oscillating state. The futures prices of pure benzene have increased slightly, and the spot prices have decreased slightly. The port inventory has decreased slightly, and the trading volume in Shandong has been reported [88][89].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has turned positive, and polyester prices have followed suit. Despite the expectation of reduced downstream polyester load, the actual production has reached a new high. In July, both bottle chips and staple fibers are entering the maintenance cycle. The PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with an increase in the arrival of spot goods. Due to compressed profits, polyester replenishment willingness is low [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 4720 to 4730, a rise of 10 [2]. - MEG domestic price rose from 4400 to 4437, an increase of 37 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4706 to 4714, up 8 [2]. - MEG closing price went up from 4351 to 4372, a gain of 21 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6680 to 6635, a drop of 45 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber basis decreased from 130 to 105, a decline of 25 [2]. - 8 - 9 spread increased from 136 to 154, up 18 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a rise of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5760 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 920 to 875, a drop of 45 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5909 to 5915, up 6 [2]. - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5909 to 5915, up 6 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6009 to 6015, up 6 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 780 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 399 to 384, a decline of 14.95 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10510 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3830 to 3875, up 45 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16280 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 15180 to 15390, up 210 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1113 to 1064, a decline of 49.55 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) fiber price decreased from 7100 to 7085, a drop of 15 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 390 to 354, a decline of 35.95 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7415 to 7395, a drop of 20 [2]. Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, a decline of 0.01 [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 48.00% to 47.00%, a rise of 1.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, a decline of 0.01 [3]. - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, a decline of 0.06 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, forecasting a double-digit year-on-year growth in net profit for the brokerage sector in Q2 2025, with an estimated net profit of 43.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2][3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a low base effect and a recovering market, with significant contributions from proprietary trading and brokerage services. The report anticipates a total investment income of 49 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 15% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The report highlights a rebound in the stock and bond markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.25% and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% in Q2 2025. The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 16.7 basis points to 1.6469% during the same period [3][4]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on leading institutions benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, brokers with significant earnings elasticity, and firms with strong international business capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Brokerage and Margin Financing - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets in Q2 2025 was 1.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15%. The average daily margin financing balance was 1.82 trillion yuan, up 19% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [3][6]. - The report projects brokerage business revenue of 25.9 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21% [4][6]. Investment Banking - The report notes a significant increase in A-share equity financing, with IPOs reaching 21.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 171% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%. The total refinancing volume was 562.2 billion yuan, compared to 235 million yuan in Q2 2024 [3][6]. - Investment banking revenue is expected to reach 12.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 71% year-on-year and 86% quarter-on-quarter [4][6]. Asset Management - The report indicates that the asset management business remains resilient, with the market size of equity mixed funds reaching 7.6 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, a 4% increase from the previous quarter. The ETF market also saw significant growth, expanding to 4.3 trillion yuan, up 13% from Q1 2025 [3][6]. - Asset management revenue is projected to be 11.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with no year-on-year growth but a 16% increase quarter-on-quarter [4][6]. International Business - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong trading and IPO activity, with an average daily trading volume of 241.3 billion HKD, an 83% increase compared to 2024. Year-to-date IPO fundraising in Hong Kong reached 107.1 billion HKD [3][6].