Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has turned positive, and polyester prices have followed suit. Despite the expectation of reduced downstream polyester load, the actual production has reached a new high. In July, both bottle chips and staple fibers are entering the maintenance cycle. The PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with an increase in the arrival of spot goods. Due to compressed profits, polyester replenishment willingness is low [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 4720 to 4730, a rise of 10 [2]. - MEG domestic price rose from 4400 to 4437, an increase of 37 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4706 to 4714, up 8 [2]. - MEG closing price went up from 4351 to 4372, a gain of 21 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6680 to 6635, a drop of 45 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber basis decreased from 130 to 105, a decline of 25 [2]. - 8 - 9 spread increased from 136 to 154, up 18 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a rise of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5760 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 920 to 875, a drop of 45 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5909 to 5915, up 6 [2]. - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price increased from 5909 to 5915, up 6 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6009 to 6015, up 6 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 780 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 399 to 384, a decline of 14.95 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10510 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3830 to 3875, up 45 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16280 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 15180 to 15390, up 210 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1113 to 1064, a decline of 49.55 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) fiber price decreased from 7100 to 7085, a drop of 15 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 390 to 354, a decline of 35.95 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7415 to 7395, a drop of 20 [2]. Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, a decline of 0.01 [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 48.00% to 47.00%, a rise of 1.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) decreased from 66.00% to 65.00%, a decline of 0.01 [3]. - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 46.00%, a decline of 0.06 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, forecasting a double-digit year-on-year growth in net profit for the brokerage sector in Q2 2025, with an estimated net profit of 43.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2][3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a low base effect and a recovering market, with significant contributions from proprietary trading and brokerage services. The report anticipates a total investment income of 49 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 15% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The report highlights a rebound in the stock and bond markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.25% and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% in Q2 2025. The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 16.7 basis points to 1.6469% during the same period [3][4]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on leading institutions benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, brokers with significant earnings elasticity, and firms with strong international business capabilities [3][4]. Summary by Sections Brokerage and Margin Financing - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets in Q2 2025 was 1.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 15%. The average daily margin financing balance was 1.82 trillion yuan, up 19% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [3][6]. - The report projects brokerage business revenue of 25.9 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21% [4][6]. Investment Banking - The report notes a significant increase in A-share equity financing, with IPOs reaching 21.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 171% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%. The total refinancing volume was 562.2 billion yuan, compared to 235 million yuan in Q2 2024 [3][6]. - Investment banking revenue is expected to reach 12.4 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 71% year-on-year and 86% quarter-on-quarter [4][6]. Asset Management - The report indicates that the asset management business remains resilient, with the market size of equity mixed funds reaching 7.6 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025, a 4% increase from the previous quarter. The ETF market also saw significant growth, expanding to 4.3 trillion yuan, up 13% from Q1 2025 [3][6]. - Asset management revenue is projected to be 11.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with no year-on-year growth but a 16% increase quarter-on-quarter [4][6]. International Business - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong trading and IPO activity, with an average daily trading volume of 241.3 billion HKD, an 83% increase compared to 2024. Year-to-date IPO fundraising in Hong Kong reached 107.1 billion HKD [3][6].