Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not specified [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not specified [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not specified [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market still faces medium - term surplus pressure, but short - term geopolitical risks exist. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - position configuration opportunities after geopolitical risks are repriced [1] - The absolute price of fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally, but the upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose, and the crack spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to widen further [2] - The asphalt market is bearish. The main contract has fallen, and the fundamentals show negative signals, with prices expected to decline under pressure [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate mainly, as the upward trend has ended, and the fundamentals lack strong support factors while the cost - side guidance turns bearish [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Crude oil has shown a fluctuating trend this week. The OPEC+ meeting last Sunday slightly exceeded expectations by pausing production increases in Q1 2026, but the market supply - demand surplus is expected to expand marginally in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Short - term geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela still exist [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to ease marginally due to unexpected shutdowns and shipment adjustments at some refineries, but the upward momentum is limited. The medium - term supply of high - sulfur fuel oil tends to be loose [2] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract fell 2% today. Construction in the north is declining, and the year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative since late October. The decline in commercial inventory has slowed down, and social inventory has increased year - on - year for the first time at the end of October. Prices are expected to decline under pressure [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The upward trend of the LPG market that started in mid - October has ended. The main contract fell 1.4% today, and the weekly LPG production volume has decreased. Chemical profit improvement has promoted demand growth, and the cooling weather has boosted combustion - end demand. The refinery storage rate has slightly decreased, while the full - storage rate has increased. The market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Low sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [3] Core Viewpoints - The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter. Despite OPEC+ pausing production increases in the first quarter of next year, the market supply - demand surplus may still expand. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after geopolitical risks are priced again [1] - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be loose in the medium term, facing a callback pressure on high valuations, while the low - sulfur market has short - term support, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to widen [2] - The asphalt market has multiple fundamental negatives, with a decline in the main contract and a trend of negative year - on - year changes in shipments and an increase in social inventory [2] - The LPG contract continues to oscillate narrowly. The overall demand is expected to improve, with a slight decrease in refinery storage capacity ratio and an increase in port storage capacity ratio [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter, including a 5.9% increase in crude oil inventory and a 2.1% decrease in refined oil inventory. The inventory increase in upstream crude oil is concentrated in transit, and the surplus pressure will be more obvious in on - shore crude oil inventory [1] - The OPEC+ meeting on Sunday slightly exceeded expectations by pausing production increases in the first quarter of next year, but the market supply - demand surplus may still expand marginally in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The medium - term surplus pressure in the oil market persists, and short - term oil prices will oscillate [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market shows a structural differentiation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be loose in the medium term due to factors such as full pricing of Russian supply reduction, high seasonal cracking spreads, end of peak power generation demand, and steady OPEC+ production increase, facing a callback pressure on high valuations [2] - The low - sulfur market has short - term support due to the accidental shutdown of part of the Kuwaiti Al - Zour refinery, which is expected to resume by early November. The restart of the Dangote refinery eases the regional supply pressure to some extent. The market also focuses on the progress of fuel oil quota conversion, which may affect the port supply structure [2] Asphalt - The BU futures market rose with crude oil in the morning but then declined due to multiple fundamental negatives, with the main contract closing down 0.58% [2] - In late October, some refineries in Shandong and Hebei switched to producing residual oil or shut down, resulting in a week - on - week decrease in production. Construction in the north is coming to an end, while there is still a rush - to - build demand in the south. The year - on - year change in the shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises has turned negative since late October, and this trend is likely to continue [2] - The decline in the overall commercial inventory has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased year - on - year for the first time this year at the end of October [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG contract continues to oscillate narrowly. The weekly LPG commercial volume has slightly decreased, while the arrival volume has increased significantly [3] - The improvement in chemical profits has promoted demand growth, and the significant cooling in many places has boosted the demand for combustion. The market expects overall demand improvement. The refinery storage capacity ratio has slightly decreased, while the port storage capacity ratio has increased [3]