细分地区来看，主产区生产积极性高，内蒙古地区最新日均产量为14710吨，较低位累计增加1460吨。 前期检修的工厂复产后负荷不断提升，叠加新增产能投放，预计后续产量在高位继续攀升。同时，近期 宁夏、云南地区产量回升也十分明显，最新产量分别为7060吨/日、2470吨/日，均已创年内新高，且处 于近年来同期高位。其中云南地区产量处于高位主要是因为丰水期电价偏低。目前两地暂无工厂减产计 划，预计产量维持高位。 当前，锰硅需求虽表现尚可，但也存在隐忧，而供应方则维持在高位。 市场情绪迎切换 本轮锰硅价格下行呈现出基差走强的态势。引发期价下行的原因主要有以下两方面： 一方面，市场情绪发生切换，"反内卷"交易逻辑逐渐降温。前期领涨品种开始进行高位调整，乐观情绪 趋于弱化。同时，近期公布的7月国内宏观数据显示，房地产市场延续弱势，而基建投资增速下滑，进 一步加剧了市场情绪的切换。 另一方面，成本端有所松动。前期支撑锰硅价格从低位回升的主要产业逻辑是焦炭价格强势导致成本上 升。然而，自8月中旬以来，焦炭期价出现回落，主力合约价格从高位累计跌幅超过9.7%，进而带动了 锰硅期价的下行。 供应压力偏大 预期交易权重趋弱，锰硅市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.38%, showing increased volume and decreased positions. With weak demand, stable supply, and a weakening market sentiment, rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. However, rising costs limit the downside space. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil also fluctuated, recording a 0.61% daily decline, with increased volume and decreased positions. Although demand concerns remain and supply is expected to rise, cost increases and production restrictions are positive factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a 0.19% daily decline, increased volume, and decreased positions. While demand provides some support, the supply has returned to a high level, and the positive effect of demand is weakening. High-valued ore prices are expected to continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [6]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - On August 20, 2025, the 1-year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5-year LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged [8]. - Container ship orders reached a record high of 10.4 million TEU, accounting for 31.7% of the existing fleet. There are concerns about oversupply as over 1 million TEU of new ships are expected to be delivered by the end of the year [9]. - Australia postponed the release of the basic facts report and final recommendation for the anti-dumping review of steel bars from China. The basic facts report is expected to be completed by December 10, 2025, and the final report will be submitted to the minister by February 16, 2026 [10]. Spot Market - Rebar: The national average price was 3,339 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. - Hot-rolled coil: The national average price was 3,477 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. - Iron ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 768 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [11]. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,132 | -0.38 | 1,317,374 | 1,523,392 | | Hot-rolled Coil | 3,402 | -0.61 | 619,254 | 1,123,892 | | Iron Ore | 769.0 | -0.19 | 289,366 | 440,389 | [13] Related Charts - Included charts on steel and iron ore inventories, production, and price trends, providing historical data for analysis [15][20][30]. 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply pressure remains, and demand is weak. With a weakening market sentiment, prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to demand performance [41]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Supply is expected to rise, and demand concerns remain. Cost increases and production restrictions are positive factors. The price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [42]. - Iron Ore: Demand provides some support, but supply has returned to a high level, and the positive effect of demand is weakening. High-valued ore prices are expected to continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [42].