11月21日，A股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，上证指数跌2.45%，深成指跌3.41%，创业板指跌4.02%。全市场成交额 1.98万亿元，较上个交易日放量2609.6亿元。 中证A500ETF（159338）收跌2.76%。 风险偏好下行+全球流动性预期再度收紧+结构反噬 今日市场的大幅调整，主要受到以下几方面因素共同影响： 首先，美联储近期频频释放偏鹰信号，强化了高利率维持更久的政策预期，海外流动性环境的不确定性明显上升，全 球风险资产普遍承压。在此背景下，新兴市场与风险资产的吸引力阶段性走弱，A股市场情绪亦受到明显传导和压制。 | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | MEETING DATE 175-200 200-225 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 350-375 375-400 | ...

从时间线看，一线城市二手房降价压力呈逐步释放态势。4月至8月，其环比跌幅从0.2%一路扩大至1.0%，5月起跌幅突破0.5%，7月与8月均维持1.0%的阶 段性高点，显示下行惯性正在增强。这种"补跌"在城市间表现尤为突出，8月二线、三线城市二手房价环比跌幅分别为0.6%、0.5%，仅为一线城市的六成 与五成。 具体到四座一线城市，北京成为本轮调整的"重灾区"，8月二手房环比跌幅达1.2%，在70个大中城市中"领跌"；上海、广州、深圳紧随其后，跌幅分别为 1.0%、0.9%、0.8%，呈现出"北部城市调整更剧烈"的区域特征。同比数据更显压力，2025年前八个月，广州以7.6%的同比跌幅居首，深圳、北京、上海 分别下跌3.7%、2.3%、1.6%，市场估值中枢持续下移。 值得警惕的是，市场结构性差异下，核心区房价松动信号显现。业内普遍认为，此前一线城市整体均价受核心城区高成交占比支撑，郊区低价房源"滞 销"与核心区相对坚挺形成鲜明对比。但最新数据显示，这一支撑力正在减弱，核心城区部分小区已出现显著降价，意味着房价调整已从外围向核心渗 透，市场降温范围进一步扩大。 国家统计局9月15日发布的房价数据，勾勒出当前房地 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 1.15% at 3831.66 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.06% at 13075.66 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.64% at 3095.85 points, despite a substantial trading volume of 31.352 billion yuan, an increase of 7.584 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25% was expected to provide liquidity support and lower corporate financing costs, typically benefiting the stock market [1] - The afternoon market drop may be attributed to profit-taking behavior following the rate cut announcement, as investors often sell off after a widely anticipated positive event materializes [1] Group 2 - Investors are advised to exercise caution in the current market environment, particularly regarding high-performing stocks that may face significant adjustment pressure due to profit-taking and shifts in market sentiment [2] - The technical analysis indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has broken below the 5-day moving average, with the KD indicator forming a death cross, suggesting a potential short-term weakening [2] - Despite the recent market turbulence, there are still positive signals, and the market is likely to continue in a range-bound pattern, providing opportunities for structural investments amid rotating market hotspots [2]