Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma about housing prices becoming as cheap as scallions by 2026 is increasingly being seen as plausible, with significant changes anticipated in the real estate market that could impact everyday life [1] Group 1: Market Trends - First turning point: Even first-tier cities may face a price correction, with potential declines spreading from suburban areas to city centers and affecting both old and new properties [3] - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities has exceeded 40, making homeownership unattainable for many, while income growth is stagnating, leading to a potential sell-off by investors [4] Group 2: Sales Model Changes - The era of selling pre-sale properties is ending, with a shift towards selling completed homes, allowing buyers to inspect properties before purchase, thus reducing risks associated with unfinished projects [5][6] - This change is expected to enhance buyer confidence and compel developers to focus on quality construction [5] Group 3: Quality of Housing - The market is transitioning to a buyer's market where consumers demand higher quality homes, leading developers to prioritize better construction standards and innovative designs [8] - Policies are encouraging the construction of high-quality homes, moving away from subpar developments [8] Group 4: Transparency in Sales - The elimination of shared areas in property sales is gaining traction, with cities like Zhaoqing and Zhangjiakou already implementing sales based on usable area, which could lead to greater transparency in the housing market [9] - This shift is expected to reduce costs for buyers and promote industry transparency, making it harder for unscrupulous developers to exploit loopholes [9] Group 5: Implications for Consumers - The anticipated changes reflect a broader shift in the real estate market from speculation to genuine housing needs, urging consumers to be cautious about investment and focus on personal housing requirements [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to several companies, including New城控股 with a target price of 18 yuan, 绿城中国 with a target price of 11.7 yuan, and 中国金茂 with a target price of 2.1 yuan [5]. Core Insights - The real estate market in core cities is experiencing accelerated price declines, particularly in the second-hand housing market, with a notable drop of 4.4% since April 2025 [1][11]. - The price of newly built homes in first-tier cities has shown resilience, with a year-on-year decline of only 0.7% in 2025, significantly narrowing from a decline of 3.8% in 2024 [1][22]. - The structural contradictions in the market are being released due to previous price control policies, leading to an influx of new homes into the second-hand market, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Trends - Since the third quarter of 2025, the real estate market has faced increasing adjustment pressures, particularly in the second-hand housing market of core cities, which is undergoing a rapid price decline [1][11]. - The price of newly built homes in first-tier cities has shown a strong anti-decline resilience, with a year-to-date decline of only 0.6% [1][22]. 2. Price Dynamics - The price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities has dropped significantly, with a 15.1% decline in the price of newly built homes from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2025 [1][37]. - The number of new listings for second-hand homes built between 2018 and 2025 has increased by 67.7% from 2023 to 2025, indicating a significant supply influx [2][36]. 3. Policy Environment - Following the relaxation of real estate control policies in August, there was a brief improvement in sales in September, but the downward pressure on prices has continued [3][12]. - The report suggests that companies like 金地集团 and 新城控股 may benefit from the improved policy environment and sales recovery [3][12]. 4. Regional Analysis - In cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou, new home prices have increased by 2.6% and 1.8% respectively since April 2025, while second-hand home prices have faced significant declines [22][23]. - The report highlights that the price dynamics in core cities are characterized by a divergence between new and second-hand homes, with new homes maintaining relative stability while second-hand homes experience significant price drops [21][22]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the real estate policies may further loosen by the end of the year, which could provide additional support to the market [3][12]. - The ongoing structural changes in the market, particularly the influx of new homes into the second-hand market, are expected to continue influencing price trends [2][41].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant divergence, with first-tier cities facing a continuous decline in second-hand housing prices, while the new housing market remains relatively stable [1][5]. Group 1: Second-Hand Housing Market - In August, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 1.0% month-on-month, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline, with a notable "catch-up" drop over the past four months [1][3]. - The month-on-month decline in first-tier cities has been increasing, from 0.2% in April to 1.0% in August, indicating a strengthening downward trend [3]. - Among the four first-tier cities, Beijing experienced the most significant decline at 1.2%, followed by Shanghai (1.0%), Guangzhou (0.9%), and Shenzhen (0.8%), highlighting a more severe adjustment in northern cities [3]. - Year-on-year, Guangzhou led with a 7.6% decline, while Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai saw decreases of 3.7%, 2.3%, and 1.6% respectively, indicating a downward shift in market valuations [3]. Group 2: New Housing Market - In contrast to the second-hand market, new housing prices in first-tier cities only fell by 0.1% month-on-month in August, significantly less than the decline in second-hand prices [5]. - Shanghai's new housing prices even increased by 0.4%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw minor declines of 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively, all lower than the adjustments in the second-hand market [5]. - The resilience of new housing prices in first-tier cities reflects strategic pricing control by developers and local price regulation policies, contrasting with the pressures faced by second and third-tier cities [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Implications - The current real estate market is undergoing a critical structural adjustment, with the ongoing "catch-up" decline in second-hand housing prices and signs of price softening in core urban areas [5][6]. - The divergence between new and second-hand housing markets, along with the differences across city tiers, suggests a need for a multi-dimensional approach to understanding market trends [5]. - For stakeholders in real estate and finance, closely monitoring transaction data and price changes in core urban areas will be essential for assessing market bottoming [6].