Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to several companies, including New城控股 with a target price of 18 yuan, 绿城中国 with a target price of 11.7 yuan, and 中国金茂 with a target price of 2.1 yuan [5]. Core Insights - The real estate market in core cities is experiencing accelerated price declines, particularly in the second-hand housing market, with a notable drop of 4.4% since April 2025 [1][11]. - The price of newly built homes in first-tier cities has shown resilience, with a year-on-year decline of only 0.7% in 2025, significantly narrowing from a decline of 3.8% in 2024 [1][22]. - The structural contradictions in the market are being released due to previous price control policies, leading to an influx of new homes into the second-hand market, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Trends - Since the third quarter of 2025, the real estate market has faced increasing adjustment pressures, particularly in the second-hand housing market of core cities, which is undergoing a rapid price decline [1][11]. - The price of newly built homes in first-tier cities has shown a strong anti-decline resilience, with a year-to-date decline of only 0.6% [1][22]. 2. Price Dynamics - The price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities has dropped significantly, with a 15.1% decline in the price of newly built homes from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2025 [1][37]. - The number of new listings for second-hand homes built between 2018 and 2025 has increased by 67.7% from 2023 to 2025, indicating a significant supply influx [2][36]. 3. Policy Environment - Following the relaxation of real estate control policies in August, there was a brief improvement in sales in September, but the downward pressure on prices has continued [3][12]. - The report suggests that companies like 金地集团 and 新城控股 may benefit from the improved policy environment and sales recovery [3][12]. 4. Regional Analysis - In cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou, new home prices have increased by 2.6% and 1.8% respectively since April 2025, while second-hand home prices have faced significant declines [22][23]. - The report highlights that the price dynamics in core cities are characterized by a divergence between new and second-hand homes, with new homes maintaining relative stability while second-hand homes experience significant price drops [21][22]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the real estate policies may further loosen by the end of the year, which could provide additional support to the market [3][12]. - The ongoing structural changes in the market, particularly the influx of new homes into the second-hand market, are expected to continue influencing price trends [2][41].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant divergence, with first-tier cities facing a continuous decline in second-hand housing prices, while the new housing market remains relatively stable [1][5]. Group 1: Second-Hand Housing Market - In August, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities fell by 1.0% month-on-month, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline, with a notable "catch-up" drop over the past four months [1][3]. - The month-on-month decline in first-tier cities has been increasing, from 0.2% in April to 1.0% in August, indicating a strengthening downward trend [3]. - Among the four first-tier cities, Beijing experienced the most significant decline at 1.2%, followed by Shanghai (1.0%), Guangzhou (0.9%), and Shenzhen (0.8%), highlighting a more severe adjustment in northern cities [3]. - Year-on-year, Guangzhou led with a 7.6% decline, while Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai saw decreases of 3.7%, 2.3%, and 1.6% respectively, indicating a downward shift in market valuations [3]. Group 2: New Housing Market - In contrast to the second-hand market, new housing prices in first-tier cities only fell by 0.1% month-on-month in August, significantly less than the decline in second-hand prices [5]. - Shanghai's new housing prices even increased by 0.4%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw minor declines of 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively, all lower than the adjustments in the second-hand market [5]. - The resilience of new housing prices in first-tier cities reflects strategic pricing control by developers and local price regulation policies, contrasting with the pressures faced by second and third-tier cities [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Implications - The current real estate market is undergoing a critical structural adjustment, with the ongoing "catch-up" decline in second-hand housing prices and signs of price softening in core urban areas [5][6]. - The divergence between new and second-hand housing markets, along with the differences across city tiers, suggests a need for a multi-dimensional approach to understanding market trends [5]. - For stakeholders in real estate and finance, closely monitoring transaction data and price changes in core urban areas will be essential for assessing market bottoming [6].