Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to several companies, including New城控股 with a target price of 18 yuan, 绿城中国 with a target price of 11.7 yuan, and 中国金茂 with a target price of 2.1 yuan [5]. Core Insights - The real estate market in core cities is experiencing accelerated price declines, particularly in the second-hand housing market, with a notable drop of 4.4% since April 2025 [1][11]. - The price of newly built homes in first-tier cities has shown resilience, with a year-on-year decline of only 0.7% in 2025, significantly narrowing from a decline of 3.8% in 2024 [1][22]. - The structural contradictions in the market are being released due to previous price control policies, leading to an influx of new homes into the second-hand market, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Trends - Since the third quarter of 2025, the real estate market has faced increasing adjustment pressures, particularly in the second-hand housing market of core cities, which is undergoing a rapid price decline [1][11]. - The price of newly built homes in first-tier cities has shown a strong anti-decline resilience, with a year-to-date decline of only 0.6% [1][22]. 2. Price Dynamics - The price of second-hand homes in first-tier cities has dropped significantly, with a 15.1% decline in the price of newly built homes from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2025 [1][37]. - The number of new listings for second-hand homes built between 2018 and 2025 has increased by 67.7% from 2023 to 2025, indicating a significant supply influx [2][36]. 3. Policy Environment - Following the relaxation of real estate control policies in August, there was a brief improvement in sales in September, but the downward pressure on prices has continued [3][12]. - The report suggests that companies like 金地集团 and 新城控股 may benefit from the improved policy environment and sales recovery [3][12]. 4. Regional Analysis - In cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou, new home prices have increased by 2.6% and 1.8% respectively since April 2025, while second-hand home prices have faced significant declines [22][23]. - The report highlights that the price dynamics in core cities are characterized by a divergence between new and second-hand homes, with new homes maintaining relative stability while second-hand homes experience significant price drops [21][22]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the real estate policies may further loosen by the end of the year, which could provide additional support to the market [3][12]. - The ongoing structural changes in the market, particularly the influx of new homes into the second-hand market, are expected to continue influencing price trends [2][41].

从时间线看，一线城市二手房降价压力呈逐步释放态势。4月至8月，其环比跌幅从0.2%一路扩大至1.0%，5月起跌幅突破0.5%，7月与8月均维持1.0%的阶 段性高点，显示下行惯性正在增强。这种"补跌"在城市间表现尤为突出，8月二线、三线城市二手房价环比跌幅分别为0.6%、0.5%，仅为一线城市的六成 与五成。 具体到四座一线城市，北京成为本轮调整的"重灾区"，8月二手房环比跌幅达1.2%，在70个大中城市中"领跌"；上海、广州、深圳紧随其后，跌幅分别为 1.0%、0.9%、0.8%，呈现出"北部城市调整更剧烈"的区域特征。同比数据更显压力，2025年前八个月，广州以7.6%的同比跌幅居首，深圳、北京、上海 分别下跌3.7%、2.3%、1.6%，市场估值中枢持续下移。 值得警惕的是，市场结构性差异下，核心区房价松动信号显现。业内普遍认为，此前一线城市整体均价受核心城区高成交占比支撑，郊区低价房源"滞 销"与核心区相对坚挺形成鲜明对比。但最新数据显示，这一支撑力正在减弱，核心城区部分小区已出现显著降价，意味着房价调整已从外围向核心渗 透，市场降温范围进一步扩大。 国家统计局9月15日发布的房价数据，勾勒出当前房地 ...