军工行情底线牢固，传媒或迎布局良机 ——资金行为研究双周报（2025/12/26-2026/1/8） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 09 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：王永健 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 延续性？》2026-01-04 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 5 周）》2026-01-03 4 周）》2025-12-28 风险提示：宏观不确定性，数据与模型局限性，研报使用信息更新不及时风险 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 市场资金流向概览：机构资金流动节奏反复，其流出动能在科创板有所收敛。机构资 金虽呈阶段性流出，但对科创板净流出斜率较创业板和全 A 更平缓。散户资金流入相 对平稳，在创业板净流入幅度显著高于科创板。从流入变化率看，科创板机构与散户 资金均处于窄幅波动区间。 相关报告 市值与估值风格：以中证 2000 为代表的小市值风格获机构与散户同步流入，且机构 买力强于散户。中证 2000 获机构与散户 ...

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:57，今日沪指涨0.02%，A股成交量1263.50亿股，成交金额22566.56 亿元，比上一个交易日减少5.56%。个股方面，3889只个股上涨，其中涨停103只，1453只个股下跌， 其中跌停5只。从申万行业来看，国防军工、传媒、房地产等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为4.17%、1.86%、 1.83%；非银金融、有色金属、银行等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为2.32%、1.61%、1.00%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:57） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 4.17 | 2049.82 | 16.74 | 海兰信 | 20.00 | | 传媒 | 1.86 | 686.02 | 6.64 | 引力传媒 | 9.99 | | 房地产 | 1.83 | 291.21 | 22.41 | 大名城 | 6.18 | | 建筑装饰 | 1.71 | 327.51 | -3.79 | 志特新材 | 19.98 ...

相关ETF （原标题：今日沪指涨1.14% 有色金属行业涨幅最大） 证券时报•数据宝统计，截至上午收盘，今日沪指涨1.14%，A股成交量1037.56亿股，成交金额17961.97亿元，比上一个交易日增加9.00%。个股方 面，3696只个股上涨，其中涨停107只，1590只个股下跌，其中跌停2只。从申万行业来看，有色金属、非银金融、综合等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为 3.91%、3.31%、2.79%；通信、美容护理、银行等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.45%、0.12%、0.12%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业 成交额 | | 比上日 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 涨跌 （亿元） | | （%） | 领涨（跌）股 | （%） | | | （%） | | | | | | 有色金属 | 3.91 1282.80 26.40 | | | 天力复合 | 16.75 | | 非银金融 | 3.31 | 812.46 81.00 | | 华林证券 | 9.99 | | 综合 | 2.79 | 31.79 31.90 | ...

证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 6 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 沪指十二连阳重返 4000 点迎开门红 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4023.42 | 1.38% | 54.58 | | | 深证成指 | 13828.63 | 2.24% | 303.61 | | | 沪深 300 | 4717.75 | 1.90% | 87.81 | | | 创业板 | 3294.55 | 2.85% | 91.38 | | | 科创 50 | 1403.41 | 4.41% | 59.21 | | | 北证 50 | 1466.42 | 1.80% | 25.99 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概念板块表现前五 | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | 4.12% | 石油石化 ...

港股2025年行情收官，港股市场热点板块涨幅显示，铜板块涨幅最为亮眼，其次是黄金股，半导体板块 涨幅紧随其后，生物医药股、保险股、航空股、中资券商股、银行股、石油股、光伏股、军工股、汽车 股皆表现强势。 仅从下图这份榜单看，2025年的行情由三条由强到弱的主线贯穿： 最强主线 - 资源与通胀（进攻性）：铜、黄金、石油、煤炭、钢铁。这反映了市场对全球再通胀、地缘 政治和能源转型下资源品长期价值的重估。 核心主线 - 科技与创新（成长性）：半导体、创新概念、生物医药、锂电池。这代表了国家产业升级和 自主可控的核心方向，资金给予高景气溢价。 稳健主线 - 金融与重资产（防御性）：保险、银行、电力、基建。这类板块盈利稳定、股息率高，在不 确定性中提供安全垫，同时受益于"中特估"逻辑。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 年初至今涨V | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LIST1077 | 铜 | 5964.735 | 261.85% | | LIST1222 | 更美股 | 6205.046 | 169.01% | | LIST1013 | 半导体 | 4987.866 | 143.02% ...

Market Overview - On December 29, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3983 points, closing at 3965.28 points, up 0.04%[2][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13537.10 points, down 0.49%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.66%[7][8] - Total trading volume for both markets was 21,578 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day[3][7] Sector Performance - Strong performers included banking, petrochemicals, wind power equipment, and software development sectors, while energy metals, pharmaceutical commerce, batteries, and electricity sectors lagged[3][7] - Over 60% of stocks in the two markets declined, with notable gains in sectors like petrochemicals and aerospace, while energy metals and pharmaceuticals saw significant losses[7][9] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.28 times and 50.25 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][16] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a shift towards quality and sustainability in macro policies, focusing on technology and industrial strength[3][16] Economic Outlook - The domestic monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with the market anticipating that the Federal Reserve will continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, contributing to a more favorable global liquidity environment[3][16] - The recent strengthening of the RMB enhances the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, likely facilitating capital inflows[3][16] Short-term Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments, with a focus on sectors such as electronic components, petrochemicals, finance, and wind power equipment for short-term investment opportunities[3][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, broad - based indices generally rose, with most volatility declining. Market activity was at a medium - high level, and 77.4% of industries achieved positive returns. The current sentiment repair is relatively optimistic, component stock returns have strengthened, the profitability outside the index is poor, the basis has continuously converged to the growth level, and the intraday Alpha and trading - type Alpha environments have warmed up. Overall, the basis cost is favorable, the excess environment is weak, and the tail risk is moderately high. For long - only stock strategies, one can increase positions in trading - type Alpha or intraday Alpha, and strictly control the proportion of component stocks in long - only stock strategies with low exposure to small and micro - cap stocks. Neutral strategies can seize the window of low - cost position building and increase positions in replication T and strictly controlled exposure strategies that do not rely on the return contribution of small and micro - cap stocks [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review - **Broad - based Index Performance**: As of December 26, 2025, this week, the CSI 500 index rose 4.03%, the CSI 1000 index rose 3.76%, the CSI 2000 index rose 3.06%, the CSI All - Share index rose 2.78%, the CSI A500 rose 2.75%, the SSE 50 index rose 1.95%, and the CSI Dividend index rose 0.55%. From the perspective of Barra style factors, the top three factors with the highest returns this week were BETA (1.16%), mid - cap (0.60%), and momentum (0.58%); the bottom three were leverage (0.03%), value (- 0.03%), and profitability (- 0.11%) [14]. - **Industry Index Performance**: This week, 77.4% of industries achieved positive returns, with the non - ferrous metals sector leading. The top three industries with the highest weekly returns were non - ferrous metals (6.43%), national defense and military industry (6.00%), and power equipment (5.37%); the bottom three were banks (- 1.01%), social services (- 1.05%), and beauty care (- 1.08%) [25]. - **Style Factor Performance**: The BETA, mid - cap, and momentum factors performed well, while the leverage, value, and profitability factors performed poorly. Among the Juchao stock style indices, the top three with the highest returns were small - cap growth (5.13%), mid - cap growth (3.28%), and large - cap growth (2.70%); the bottom three were mid - cap value (2.64%), small - cap value (2.19%), and large - cap value (- 0.02%) [27][32]. - **Futures Market**: The basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, and the basis volatility slightly increased, but the cost control pressure decreased. The estimated average returns of neutral products affected by each contract's hedging this week were - 0.38% for 300 neutral, - 0.50% for 500 neutral, and - 0.63% for 1000 neutral. Since the beginning of this year, the estimated average returns of neutral products affected by each contract's hedging were - 1.96% for 300 neutral, - 6.13% for 500 neutral, and - 7.71% for 1000 neutral [40]. - **Options Market**: This week, most implied volatilities declined, which is expected to be unfavorable for option - buying and arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2 Strategy Environment Monitoring - **Intraday Alpha Environment**: Overall, it is conducive to intraday Alpha accumulation. The daily average trading volume of the stock market has slightly increased, the average intraday amplitude cross - sectional volatility is at a normal level, the proportion of high - volatility stocks is normal, and the short - term volatility of major indices is decreasing. Although the stock market has a daily net outflow, considering the market's upward trend, the actual capital inflow is beneficial for intraday Alpha accumulation [48][51][54]. - **Trading - type Alpha Environment**: The weekly average trading volume and turnover rate of the stock market are at a relatively high level, which is conducive to trading - type Alpha accumulation. The stock market shows a small - cap style, which is beneficial for trading - type Alpha accumulation, but the number of stocks that can beat the benchmark index has dropped to a low level, which is significantly unfavorable for trading - type Alpha accumulation [55][62]. - **Holding - type Alpha Environment**: It is generally conducive to holding - type Alpha accumulation and stability. The short - term returns of major broad - based indices are mostly positive, the trend smoothness of some factors is high, the style is small - cap, the number of daily limit and down - limit stocks is normal, the stock liquidity is normal, the volatility is high, the style return difference volatility is decreasing, the industry correlation coefficient is normal, and the factor rotation speed is at a high level [67][73][84]. - **Neutral Strategy Hedging Environment**: The basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, the basis volatility slightly increased, and the cost control pressure decreased [91]. 3.3 Future Strategy研判 - **Return Performance**: Based on the 20 - day rolling return, the relative returns of the CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and CSI 500 compared to the SSE 50 are in the normal or extremely high range, and the SSE 50 return is in the relatively high range [93]. - **Derivatives Market Sentiment**: In the options market, the sentiment towards the CSI 1000, SSE 50, and CSI 500 is generally cautious but shows structural differentiation. In the futures market, the basis of IF, IC, and IM converged, and market sentiment has recovered [97][102]. - **Risk Preference**: As of December 25, 2025, the margin trading balance was 2.53 trillion yuan, at the highest level in the past three years, indicating a high risk preference [105]. - **Trading Heat**: The trading heat of the SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 is at different levels, and the market trading volume is at an extremely high level [107]. - **Style Attention Multiple**: The CSI 1000 is in the relatively high range, the CSI 2000 is in the normal range, and the CSI 500 is in the extremely high range [110]. - **Profit Spread and Dividend Spread**: The profit spreads of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 2000, and SSE 50 are at different levels, mostly in the normal or extremely low range. The dividend spreads are all in the normal range [111][113]. - **Trading Crowding**: The trading heat of the TMT sector is in the low range, the trading heat of small - micro - cap sectors is in the high range, and the overall market trading volume is in the extremely high range [117].

| 申万行业 | 行业 | 成交额 | 比上日 | | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 涨跌 | （亿元） | （%） | 领涨（跌）股 | （%） | | | （%） | | | | | | 国防军工 | 2.34 | 977.51 | 22.02 | 广联航空 | 19.99 | | 非银金融 | 1.15 | 307.83 | 59.50 | 拉卡拉 | 6.45 | | 机械设备 | 1.04 | 1094.49 | 22.86 | 绿岛风 | 20.00 | | 轻工制造 | 1.01 | 241.32 | 49.19 | N江天 | 230.08 | | 汽车 | 0.92 | 605.64 | 12.77 | 超捷股份 | 15.62 | | 基础化工 | 0.63 | 555.38 | -7.75 | 集泰股份 | 10.06 | | 社会服务 | 0.63 | 98.63 | -1.52 | C天溯 | 22.68 | | 交通运输 | 0.62 | 187.44 | 2.17 | 天顺股份 | 10.03 | | 建筑材料 | ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 24 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 三大指数收微红 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3919.98 | 0.07% | 2.61 | | | 深证成指 | 13368.99 | 0.27% | 36.26 | | | 沪深 300 | 4620.73 | 0.20% | 9.11 | | | 创业板 | 3205.01 | 0.41% | 13.03 | | | 科创 50 | 1340.02 | 0.36% | 4.77 | | | 北证 50 | 1439.94 | -0.64% | -9.34 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电力设备 | 1.12% | 社会服务 | -2.07% ...

通过今天上午市场盘面可以看到，两市上涨个股3490家，其中涨幅超过9%的个股102家，涨幅超3%的 个股601家；下跌个股1757家，其中跌幅超过9%的个股9家，跌幅超过3%的个股105家！通过个股数据 看，两市个股明显涨多跌少，上涨个股数量是下跌个股数量的近2倍，虽然两市个股涨多跌少，但对比 上周五，各大指数涨幅明显更大了，但两市上涨个股数量却萎缩了，盘面权重的大科技概念股领涨虚拉 指数明显，科创50指数盘中大涨超过2%，传媒、保险、商业、教育、煤炭、机械、电力、造纸、银行 等蛮多的板块率先调整了，所以上午指数一个点一个点的往上，技术上有掩护出货的嫌疑，关键大科技 权重又在虚拉指数诱多了，这种格局，我们经历多少次了？所以，上午对于手中浮盈的、放量大涨的、 波段有空间的个股，尽量高抛一些和控制一下仓位和风险！ 从短线市场技术上而言，上周二上午市场3816点出现3个分时线低点共振支撑，午后3815点确认反弹至 今，市场反弹了100多点了，当初低位淘气反复强调不要低位不敢低吸，反而割肉离场，后面反弹了100 点左右又追涨！这不，真的有很多这样的投资者，技术上由于周末消息面偏暖，美股普涨，早盘亚太股 市普涨，所以今 ...