1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall "oscillating" outlook for the black building materials industry, indicating that the prices of sector varieties are expected to remain oscillating in the short - term [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the pre - holiday restocking logic has ended, the high iron - water production still supports the demand for furnace materials, which in turn supports the steel price at the cost end. As the fourth quarter approaches, the market's expectations for the upcoming important meetings are increasing, so it is expected that the negative feedback in the industrial chain is difficult to form. The prices of sector varieties are expected to remain oscillating before the holiday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the shipments from overseas mines are stable. However, the arrival rhythm is affected by typhoons. Considering the end of pre - holiday restocking demand and the need to further verify the peak - season demand for building materials, the upside space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, but the steel mills' restocking is nearly over, and the pressure on finished - product prices leads to a contraction in electric - furnace profits. It is expected that the price will oscillate following the finished products in the short - term [1]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: Although the steel mills' restocking is over, the rigid demand is strong under the high - iron - water background. The demand for coke is still supported, and the raw - coal price provides strong support. There are still expectations for price increases in the market, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the coal mine production is expected to decline slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal is suspended, so the overall supply pressure is not large. After the coke price increase is implemented and the profit pressure is relieved, the production can still remain at a high level. The fundamentals of coking coal are strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short - term, the high production cost and the peak - season demand expectation support the price of manganese silicon. However, the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center after the peak season [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term peak - season expectation and the firm cost support the price of silicon iron. But the market's supply - demand relationship tends to be loose, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [2]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. It is expected to follow macro - changes and operate with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [2]. 3.6 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market trading of steel is generally weak. The restocking before the holiday is coming to an end, and the speculative intention is weak. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to decline before the holiday, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand and worried about the post - holiday inventory pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to be under pressure, but the downward space is limited due to the upcoming important meetings and cost support [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipments from overseas mines have recovered slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined slightly. The spot market quotation has fallen, and the port trading has recovered, but the pre - holiday trading is generally weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, but the steel mills' restocking is nearly over, and the electric - furnace profit has shrunk. It is expected to follow the finished products' price in the short - term [9]. - **Coke**: The futures price is running weakly due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still supported by high iron - water production. Some steel mills have accepted the price increase, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price is running weakly due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The supply pressure is not large during the holiday, and the fundamentals are strongly supported. The price is expected to remain oscillating [11][12]. - **Glass**: The demand is weak in reality, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction and is expected to oscillate downward [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - changes and oscillate widely. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The downstream restocking demand is nearly over, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term cost and demand expectations support the price, but there is downward space after the peak season [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is pessimistic about the post - holiday demand. The futures price is running weakly. The short - term demand expectation and cost support the price, but there is downward pressure after the peak season [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research variety: Soda ash - Report cycle: Daily report - Date of composition: July 23, 2025 [1] 2. Futures Market 2.1 Contract Quotes - On July 23, 2025, the soda ash futures faced pressure and pulled back. The opening price of Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) was 1376 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1394 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1338 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 3.307 billion hands, an increase of 197 million hands from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.037 billion hands, a decrease of 37.3 million hands from the previous day [2] 2.2 Variety Prices - The report provides the opening and highest prices of Soda Ash 2508, Soda Ash 2509, and Soda Ash 2601 contracts on July 23, 2025 [5] 3. Spot Market - The report presents the domestic soda ash price summary table on July 23, 2025, showing price changes compared to July 22, 2025 [6] 4. Influencing Factors 4.1 Policy - related - Policy expectations such as the steady - growth plan for the building materials industry and the "city - specific policies" in the real estate sector, combined with low inventory, have driven market sentiment up [7] 4.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The weekly output was 568,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. However, summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and the release progress of new capacity from Yuanxing was slower than expected. - Demand side: The daily melting volume of float glass was 168,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.76%, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash procurement increased [8] 4.3 Technical Analysis - The price of the Soda Ash 2509 (SA509) contract deviated from the 5 - day moving average today, and there may be a need for technical repair. However, the trend indicator still maintained a bullish signal, indicating that the short - term trend is still upward, but the repair demand may cause the price to pull back to some extent [9] 5. Market Outlook - The current soda ash futures price may be supported by policies and maintenance factors and remain in a relatively strong state. In the long run, Yuanxing's second - phase 2.8 million - ton capacity is expected to be put into production in August, which will increase market supply, and the soda ash futures price may face valuation pressure. In addition, if the inventory inflection point appears, that is, the inventory starts to rise, it may also lead to a price pullback. Traders need to beware of the short - selling risk brought about by the accelerated release of Yuanxing's capacity or the increase in inventory [12]