Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodity market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. After the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the opening of coking coal contracts, coking coal contracts rose and then fell, leading to a full - scale correction in black commodities. In the current summer season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is likely to rise. The market has high expectations for "anti - involution" and strengthened optimistic expectations for macro - policies. Futures prices are likely to enter a high - level shock after a significant pull - up and subsequent correction [2]. - For iron ore, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the market is in the off - season. Iron water production is under great pressure to decline, and the room for further increase is limited even in the peak season. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, with future arrivals expected to remain high. Although the port inventory is slowly decreasing, the trade ore inventory is high. With the decline of coking coal and coke prices, iron ore is also expected to adjust, and the short - term price is likely to maintain a high - level shock [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Situation**: After the coking coal contract restrictions, black commodities corrected. The production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased last week, with factory inventory decreasing for the second consecutive week and social inventory increasing for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties rose, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory may rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are likely to enter a high - level shock after a significant increase and subsequent correction [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and consider buying at low prices after a full adjustment for short - term operations. Do not chase rising or falling prices for investors with empty positions [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Price Data**: The closing prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3356 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan (1.88%) from the previous day and 209 yuan (6.64%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The social inventory of the five major varieties was 927.08 tons, up 4.97 tons (0.54%) from the previous week; the social inventory of threaded steel was 372.97 tons, up 2.81 tons (0.76%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production Data**: The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 211.96 tons, up 2.90 tons (1.39%) from the previous week; the hot - rolled coil production was 317.49 tons, down 3.65 tons (-1.14%) from the previous week [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Market Situation**: The steel mill profitability is around 60%. The iron water production of 247 steel mills is 242.1 tons, down 0.2 tons from the previous week. In the off - season, iron water production is under pressure to decline, and the increase space is limited even in the peak season. The global shipment is high and rising seasonally, and future arrivals are expected to remain high. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the trade ore inventory is high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a strong rise, the futures price has been falling, and it is likely to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing rising prices, and wait patiently for a correction before buying at low prices for short - term operations [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 802.5 yuan/dry ton, up 17.5 yuan (2.23%) from the previous week; the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 766 yuan/wet ton, down 9 yuan (-1.16%) from the previous day but up 16 yuan (2.13%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1404.9 tons, down 165.0 tons (-10.51%) from the previous week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 833.2 tons, up 123.3 tons (17.37%) from the previous week. The northern six - port arrival volume was 1389.2 tons, up 241.3 tons (21.02%) from the previous week [4]. **III. Industry News** - At the "Seminar on Building a Healthy Ecosystem: Coping with Malicious Industry Involution" hosted by leading manganese - based enterprises, relevant enterprises reached two preliminary consensuses: 30% energy - saving and emission - reduction for high, medium, low, and micro - carbon ferromanganese production enterprises, and 40% for silicomanganese alloy production enterprises. To ensure stable production costs after production cuts, several ferroalloy production enterprises have actively increased their manganese ore reserves, locking in nearly one million tons of raw materials [6]. - The shipment of Ghanaian manganese ore has been affected by the rainy season since May. The shipments in May - July were 350,000 tons, 277,000 tons, and 380,000 tons respectively, with a reduction of 47%, 58%, and 43% compared to the monthly average output. The impact of the rainy season in Ghana is expected to last until November [6]. **IV. Steel Mill and Port Data** - For 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, flat compared to the previous week and 1.13 percentage points higher than last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week but 1.20 percentage points higher than last year; the profitability rate was 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points from the previous week and 48.49 percentage points higher than last year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4223 million tons, down 0.21 million tons from the previous week but 2.62 million tons higher than last year [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 13.79038 million tons, up 51,700 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1515 million tons, down 75,900 tons. The total inventory at 47 ports was 14.39568 million tons, up 141,700 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, down 94,300 tons [7]. - Steel mills in Hebei and Shandong markets raised the purchase price of coke by 50/55 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, the price of first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1420 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade dry - quenched coke was 1770 yuan/ton [7]. - According to Steel Silver E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 7.5103 million tons, up 116,600 tons (+1.58%) from the previous week; the inventory of construction steel was 3.9746 million tons, up 42,900 tons (+1.09%) from the previous week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak reality versus strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing due to positive macro - policy expectations. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, but is expected to weaken further during the summer heat, and inventory is likely to rise. In the short term, iron ore is expected to remain strong, supported by the rising prices of rebar, coking coal, and glass, but overall it is in a large - range oscillation [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth plan for ten key industries including steel, and the National Energy Administration is checking for over - production in coal mines, which led to the continuous limit - up of coking coal and a sharp rise in coke and other black - series products [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production decreased, factory inventory declined, social inventory continued to rise, and total inventory increased. Apparent demand dropped month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, and it is expected to weaken further during the summer heat [2] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices have risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing a short - term strong performance [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, buy on dips after adjustments, and conduct short - term operations. Investors with empty positions should be cautious about chasing the rise [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased. For example, the rebar main - contract closing price is 3307 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from the previous day and 6.20% from last week [2] - **Production**: National building - material steel mill rebar production is 209.06 million tons, down 3.51% from last week; hot - rolled coil production is 321.14 million tons, down 0.62% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: Five major steel product social inventory is 922.11 million tons, up 0.89% from last week; rebar social inventory is 370.16 million tons, up 2.97% from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mill profitability is fair, with the profit - making steel mill ratio close to 60%. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, but there is significant downward pressure in the near future as it is the consumption off - season. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports futures prices, but port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [5] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are rising strongly but are in a large - range oscillation overall [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, be cautious about chasing the rise, and wait patiently for a pull - back before buying on dips for short - term operations [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased. For example, the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price is 823 yuan/dry ton, up 1.73% from the previous day and 7.30% from last week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron - ore shipment is 1404.9 million tons, down 10.51% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipment is 833.2 million tons, up 17.37% from last week [5] - **Inventory**: Port total inventory is 13785.21 million tons, up 0.14% from last week; port trade - ore inventory is 9193.54 million tons, down 0.50% from last week [5] 3. Industry News - **Coal Industry**: The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in eight provinces (regions) to promote stable and orderly coal supply. This led to a limit - up in coking coal and a collective surge in the coal sector yesterday [7] - **Iron - Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports is 14388.56 million tons, an increase of 72.25 million tons from last Monday. Inventory in some regions has increased, while that in others has decreased slightly [8]