Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already on the low side, so it is not advisable to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive is limited due to two factors: the winter gas restriction in Iran is less than expected, and the port inventory pressure is difficult to reduce; the raw material methanol inventory of MTO enterprises is relatively high in the past five years, and the downstream replenishment motivation is temporarily insufficient. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the gas - restriction expectation of inland gas - to - methanol, and the rising option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Price Information - **Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA05 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.58%); MA09 closed at 2228 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.09%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.24%), and in Shandong it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.58%), while in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, the prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Price Differences**: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18 yuan/ton. The price of some coal types also increased, such as Datong Q5500 increasing by 17.5 yuan/ton (2.60%) and Yulin Q6000 increasing by 10 yuan/ton (1.49%) [1]. b. Cost and Profit Information - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of industrial natural gas in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged. The coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 12.6 yuan/ton (-10.04%), and the natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 1100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit Situations**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-21.48%), while the profit of East China MTO increased by 61 yuan/ton (11.00%). The profits of some downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE increased, with acetic acid increasing by 18.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) and MTBE increasing by 23.6 yuan/ton (6.15%) [1]. c. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: In other regions of the Middle East, the reference negotiation for ship cargoes was - 4 - 2%, the buyers' intended bids were - 4 - 5%, and the sellers' intended offers were - 2 - 2.5%. The CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The short - term outlook for methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already relatively low, so short - selling based on valuation is not recommended. The short - term upward drive is limited due to higher expected imports from Iran and high MTO enterprise raw material inventory, resulting in insufficient downstream restocking power. Selling out - of - the - money put options is considered appropriate, taking into account coal cost support in winter, potential gas restrictions for inland gas - to - methanol production, and the recent increase in option volatility [1] Summary by Related Catalog 1. Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: MA01 in Shandong closed at 2141 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.23% from the previous day; MA05 was at 2236 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.49%; MA09 was at 2239 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.09% [1] - **Spot Prices**: Factory prices in Shandong were 2107.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan or 0.36%; prices in Shaanxi were 1945 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or - 1.27%; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2160 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.23%; in Hubei, it remained unchanged at 2180 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 1965 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan or 0.64% [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 63.50 yuan/ton, down 28.50 yuan or 1.29% [1] 2. Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of Yulin Q6000 coal was 660 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 2.33%; Ordos Q5500 was 587.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan [1] - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit was 128.10 yuan/ton, down 42.60 yuan or - 24.96%; Northwest MTO profit was 38.40 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan or 2233.33%; East China MTO profit was - 503.57 yuan/ton, down 33.50 yuan or - 7.13%; acetic acid profit was 397.17 yuan/ton, down 21.22 yuan or - 5.07%; MTBE profit was 323.84 yuan/ton, up 11.28 yuan or 3.61%; formaldehyde profit was - 250.80 yuan/ton, up 14.40 yuan or 5.43% [1] 3. Market Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 rebounded after a decline, opening at 2110 yuan/ton and closing at 2141 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 1,405,704 lots, and open interest was 1,372,748 lots, with increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - **Foreign**: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and the overall operating load of methanol plants in the country is 74.45%. As of November 2nd, about 80,000 tons of methanol were shipped from the country in November [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - OPEC shows a hesitant attitude with a slightly stronger willingness to support prices than to expand market share, and the slight increase plan will continue to suppress the upside space of oil prices. Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1]. - The fundamentals of methanol have marginally improved, and the downside space is expected to be relatively limited. It is recommended to focus on short - long opportunities on dips [3]. - Urea is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers. With no effective positive factors in reality, it is suggested to focus on going long on dips at low prices [5]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish, but it has broken down in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses and enter short - long positions opportunistically, and to partially re - establish the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [12]. - The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong domestic supply and weak demand, and the export outlook is weak. In the short term, the valuation has declined to a low level, and it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [14]. - The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene are falling, and the basis is weakening. The BZN spread has a large upward repair space, and the price of styrene may stop falling when the downstream starts to rise and the port inventory is depleted [17]. - The price of polyethylene may oscillate upward in the long term as the long - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to the Korean ethylene clearance policy. In the short term, it may gap down at the opening [20]. - For polypropylene, there is a large supply pressure, and the downstream start - up rate rebounds seasonally at a low level. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [23]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - For PTA, the supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory depletion pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term but will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [29]. Summary by Industry Crude Oil - **Market Information**: As of October 8, 2025, the WTI crude oil main contract was quoted at $62.33/barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract was quoted at $65.89/barrel. The US API data showed that the Cushing inventory decreased by 1.15 million barrels, and the overall inventory situation was still healthy. The OPEC meeting ended on October 5, with a final decision of a "principled low - speed production increase" of 137,000 barrels per day [1]. - **Strategy**: OPEC's hesitant attitude will suppress the upside space of oil prices, and crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: During the holiday, overseas crude oil first fell and then rose, with a slight overall decline. Most other commodities rose more than they fell. Before the holiday, the price in Taicang fell by 11 yuan, the price in Inner Mongolia rose by 5 yuan, and the price in southern Shandong remained flat. The 01 contract of the futures price fell by 31 yuan to 2328 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 86 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5 to - 34 [3]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side start - up has declined, and the enterprise profit is low. The domestic supply is expected to increase marginally. The demand - side port olefin plants have restarted and increased their loads, and the traditional demand has generally seen an increase in start - up, but the profit is still low. The overall demand has marginally improved. The inventory has decreased at a high level in ports and at a low level year - on - year in inland enterprises. It is recommended to focus on short - long opportunities on dips [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: During the holiday, the ex - factory price in Shandong remained stable, the ex - factory price in Henan fell by 20 yuan, and the market price generally continued the weak trend. Before the holiday, the 01 contract of the futures price rose by 7 yuan to 1670 yuan, with a basis of - 70 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by + 4 to - 47 [5]. - **Strategy**: The futures price has stabilized at a low level. The domestic supply has returned, the start - up has increased significantly, and the enterprise profit is still low, with increased supply pressure. The demand for compound fertilizers has seen more shutdowns, and the agricultural demand is in the off - season, with general demand and weak market sentiment. The enterprise inventory continues to increase. It is recommended to focus on going long on dips at low prices [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: During the holiday, commodities were generally positive. Japanese rubber and Singapore rubber rose slightly. In Thailand's spot market, the prices were mixed. The total inventory of natural rubber in China decreased marginally. The start - up load of all - steel tires in Shandong increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The export orders of semi - steel tires slowed down, and the domestic sales market demand was weak [8][9][10]. - **Strategy**: The medium - term view is bullish, but it has broken down in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses and enter short - long positions opportunistically, and to partially re - establish the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell by 57 yuan to 4839 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4700 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 139 (+ 27) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 320 (- 10) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, the overall start - up rate of PVC increased, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the factory and social inventories increased [12]. - **Strategy**: The enterprise comprehensive profit has continued to decline, the valuation pressure has further decreased, the maintenance volume is small, the production is at a historical high, and new devices will be tested in the short term. The domestic downstream start - up has declined, the domestic demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of pure benzene in East China remained unchanged at 5885 yuan/ton, the spot price of styrene fell by 50 yuan to 6850 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract of styrene fell by 7 yuan to 6932 yuan/ton, the basis weakened, the BZN spread decreased, the non - integrated device profit of EB increased, and the spread between EB contracts decreased. The upstream start - up rate decreased, the port inventory in Jiangsu increased, and the demand - side start - up rate of three S decreased overall, except for ABS [16]. - **Strategy**: The spot and futures prices are falling, and the basis is weakening. The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost - side supply is still abundant, the supply - side start - up of styrene continues to rise, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the demand - side start - up rate has decreased. The price of styrene may stop falling when the downstream starts to rise and the port inventory is depleted [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polyethylene rose by 18 yuan to 7181 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7160 yuan/ton, the basis weakened by 18 yuan to - 17 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up decreased, the production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the downstream average start - up rate increased slightly, and the LL1 - 5 spread expanded [19]. - **Strategy**: The price may gap down at the opening due to the large decline in crude oil prices during the holiday. The cost side still has support, the spot price has fallen, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. The supply is limited, the inventory has decreased at a high level, the seasonal peak season may come, and the price may oscillate upward in the long term [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polypropylene rose by 3 yuan to 6903 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 6795 yuan/ton, the basis weakened by 3 yuan to - 102 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up increased, the production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the port inventory increased, the downstream average start - up rate increased, and the LL - PP spread expanded [22]. - **Strategy**: There is a large supply pressure, the downstream start - up rate rebounds seasonally at a low level. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell by 100 yuan to 6570 yuan, the PX CFR rose by 3 dollars to 804 dollars, the basis increased by 32 yuan to 56 yuan, the 11 - 1 spread decreased by 16 yuan to 12 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia decreased slightly. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or restart delays. The PTA load increased slightly, and the import volume of Korean PX to China decreased in mid - and early - September. The inventory increased in late August, and the PXN and naphtha crack spread increased [25]. - **Strategy**: The current PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short term, the overall load center is low, and the expected inventory accumulation period continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell by 58 yuan to 4594 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 55 yuan to 4535 yuan, the basis decreased by 8 yuan to - 63 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6 yuan to - 40 yuan. The PTA load increased slightly, some devices had maintenance or restart, the downstream load increased, the terminal load increased, the social inventory increased slightly, and the spot and futures processing fees decreased [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the inventory depletion pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell by 17 yuan to 4207 yuan, the East China spot price fell by 20 yuan to 4275 yuan, the basis increased by 1 yuan to 68 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12 yuan to - 75 yuan. The supply - side load increased slightly, some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance, restart, or load adjustment. The downstream load increased, the import arrival forecast was 234,000 tons, the East China departure was 13,600 tons on September 29, the port inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 409,000 tons. The naphtha - based and domestic ethylene - based profits were negative, and the coal - based profit was positive. The cost side remained stable [28]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to be low in the short term but will turn to inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies under the weak outlook, but beware of the risk of the weak expectation not being realized [29].