每年的中央经济工作会议，都是洞察我国宏观经济政策走向的"定盘星"。即将召开的2025年中央经济工 作会议，更处在了"十四五"规划收官与"十五五"规划启航的关键节点。 2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，其战略定位具有双重历史意义。一方面，这是承前启后的关键节 点，需对"十四五"时期经济结构调整成效进行全面评估，为"十五五"规划编制提供实践支撑；另一方 面，这是面向未来五年的发展基石，需通过顶层设计明确未来五年的发展路径、核心目标与实施举措， 为构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展奠定基础。 中央经济工作会议在此关键节点召开，肩负着为"十五五"开篇定调、绘制蓝图的历史使命，其政策取向 将直接影响未来五年经济发展的节奏与质量。市场对即将到来的中央经济工作会议已有诸多前瞻性预 期，普遍预计明年的政策基调整体将更加积极有力。 围绕三大主线系统部署明年经济工作 中宏国研经济研究院指出，会议将围绕"稳增长、促转型、防风险"三大主线，系统部署2026年经济工 作，重点解决经济运行中的结构性矛盾，培育新质生产力，为未来五年经济发展提供根本遵循和行动指 南。 中宏国研经济研究院认为，在宏观调控目标上，要紧扣"稳增长、稳就业、稳物价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent economic indicators for April demonstrate the resilience of China's economy, with some data exceeding market expectations, particularly an 8.1% year-on-year increase in goods exports in USD terms [1] - Despite a decline in exports and imports with the US by 21% and 13% respectively, exports to non-US regions have significantly increased, indicating a need to reassess the impact of tariffs on the economy in May and June [1] - The expectation for further policy easing may need to be re-evaluated based on the stable growth in production and demand, contrary to previous market expectations of economic pressure [1] Group 2 - The next phase will see more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic economic cycle, particularly through the real estate market [2] - From January to April, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7%, indicating a broad fiscal expenditure growth of over 7% [2] - The adjustment of micro-policies is crucial, as current low price phenomena are influenced not only by supply relations but also by the micro-market environment and pricing systems [2] Group 3 - The expansion of domestic demand strategy should focus on structural adjustments rather than just short-term stimulus, requiring a shift in understanding macro policies from crisis management to mid-term structural adjustments [3] - A better understanding of the relationship between policy choices, coordination of macro and micro policies, and the balance between short-term policies and mid-term reforms is essential for enhancing economic resilience [3]