Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market fluctuations driven by retail investor sentiment and the impact of a new round of global "black swan" events, particularly focusing on the escalation of the US-China trade conflict and its implications for the market [3][4]. Market Performance - In the last two weeks, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.47%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, and the CSI 500 index saw a gain of 2.17% [3]. - The market was primarily influenced by retail investor sentiment, leading to a temporary surge before facing a significant downturn due to external shocks [3]. Trade Conflict Analysis - The article highlights China's proactive response to the US's intensified trade conflict, particularly in the semiconductor and rare earth sectors [4]. - The announcement by Trump on October 10 to impose further tariffs on China triggered a global market sell-off, including a notable drop in the A50 index and significant declines in cryptocurrency markets [4]. Technical Analysis - The article notes a successful early warning for reducing positions, which helped avoid losses during the April 7 market crash [5]. - Despite recent highs in the market, institutional and speculative investors are maintaining a cautious stance, while retail investors continue to drive prices upward, leading to potential market reversals [5]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a low position in the main board and small-cap sectors, emphasizing a focus on avoiding risks in the current market environment [2][6]. - The prevailing market style is identified as large-cap dominant, with no specific sectors recommended for short-term momentum [6].

一个人看到的是什么，决定了这个人的水平。又到了一周总结反省的时间，过去这一周主要就是在多看少动的状态，仅有的几个瞎动造成了比较大的亏损 😂 再也不情绪交易了回归正题，我看了什么？从我观察来看，市场上暴富了并且还能守财的玩家，往往是那些最坚定的行业参与者。有不少中段位玩家在 NFT 之后认为币圈结束了直接离场，就错过了后来的铭文热；铭文之后懈怠了，就错过了后来的 SOL meme 热。等到发现踏空再回来的时候就再也跟不上节奏。这就要求一直在场上关注圈内的变化和趋势，有自己心里的主线但每天刷推特现在大部分看到的是什么？是八卦、瓜，以及在阴暗处蛐蛐那些大玩家没本事就是运气好。关注这些的人，时间长了，FOMO 和愤怒成瘾 —— 好像不吐槽一天，就浑身不舒服。但要知道那个状态巨耗精力，而且浪费时间，很多时候就是一晃几小时瞎聊浪费过去了。因为总盯着 “行情有多烂”、“他也配赚钱？”，自然没劲去干那些能让人绝地翻盘的事这一点我也在反省。有些老群友知道以前群里出现任何聊八卦、负能量的情况我都要严厉禁止，现在松懈了，自己都有时候会扯几句，没做到时时都能严以律己。应该每天都问自己这样几个问题：1. 之前定下的目标做到了吗？没做到 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Industry | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Volatile [5] | | Protein Meal | Volatile [5] | | Corn and Starch | Volatile [5] | | Live Pigs | Volatile [6] | | Natural Rubber | Volatile [7] | | Synthetic Rubber | Volatile [11] | | Cotton | Volatile [11] | | Sugar | Volatile [12] | | Pulp | Volatile, Slightly Bullish [14] | | Logs | Volatile, Slightly Bearish [16] | 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, finding that most are in a volatile state. Factors such as policy regulation, supply - demand relationships, and macro - environment impact the market. For instance, the anti - involution policy in the live pig industry affects its supply and demand expectations; the complex supply - demand situation in the oils and fats market leads to market fluctuations [1][5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Market sentiment has weakened, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of lower technical support [5]. - **Logic**: Uncertainty in export demand, good weather in production areas, and various supply - demand factors at home and abroad are in play. For example, the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil, the increase in domestic soybean imports and inventory, and the increase in palm oil production season [5]. - **Outlook**: The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and it is expected to be volatile [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: As sentiment fades, both types of meal see reduced positions and price drops [5]. - **Logic**: Abundant precipitation and suitable temperature in US soybean production areas are conducive to high yields. Domestically, short - term soybean arrivals increase, while long - term supply may face shortages [5]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [5]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Spot prices are generally stable, waiting for new guidance [5]. - **Logic**: Supply is tightening, but downstream demand is weak. New - season corn production is normal, and imported corn supply is abundant [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Short - term price rebounds may occur, but there is a downward trend after new - crop listing [6]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: Emotional trading has cooled, and the futures price has fallen from its high [1][6]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is affected by industry guidance and farmer sentiment; in the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase; in the long - term, policies may lead to a supply inflection point. Demand is limited due to hot weather, and inventory pressure exists [1][6]. - **Outlook**: The market is volatile, with a situation of "weak present, strong future." Anti - spread strategies can be considered [6]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The commodity market has adjusted sharply, and rubber prices have dropped significantly [7]. - **Logic**: The market decline is mainly due to regulatory impacts on leading varieties. Fundamentally, supply is affected by the rainy season, and demand is relatively stable [7]. - **Outlook**: The market will continue to trade based on the macro - environment, and it is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price continues to fluctuate accordingly [11]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall market macro - environment, the raw material price is volatile, and the supply is relatively tight in the short - term [11]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain a range - bound operation [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The monthly spread is converging [11]. - **Logic**: Supply is expected to be abundant, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is at a low level. Low inventory supports prices, but the upside is limited in the short - term [11]. - **Outlook**: It is volatile. Low inventory supports prices, but upward resistance increases, and the monthly spread may follow an anti - spread logic [11]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Attention should be paid to import conditions [12]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market supply is expected to be abundant. In Brazil, the sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high. In China, imports are increasing, which will put pressure on prices [13]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, prices are expected to decline; in the short - term, there are short - selling opportunities [13]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Anti - involution trading may resume, and attention should be paid to arbitrage hedging during the decline [14]. - **Logic**: The supply of hardwood pulp is excessive, and demand is weak in the short - term but may improve marginally in the future. There is a ceiling on price increases [14]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuations follow the macro - environment, and futures prices are expected to rise with volatility [14]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: Fundamental changes are limited, and it is short - term dominated by macro - expectations [16]. - **Logic**: It follows the "anti - involution" macro - policy. Supply is affected by shipping rhythms, and demand is stable with no obvious peak or off - season [16]. - **Outlook**: It is volatile and slightly bearish in the short - term. Pay attention to changes in effective deliverable quantities of the 09 contract [16][17].