Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act passed by the U.S. Senate raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, addressing immediate liquidity pressures faced by the U.S. Treasury [1][2][4] - The Act fulfills Trump's campaign promises, including tax cuts, increased military spending, and stricter immigration policies, while also targeting Democratic support bases by cutting Medicaid and food assistance [7][9] - The Act is projected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, which may necessitate accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][21] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury's cash balance has significantly decreased from $800 billion at the beginning of the year to $456.7 billion by June 30, 2025, indicating potential liquidity challenges [2][4] - The Act's provisions include $460 billion for border wall construction, $450 billion for immigrant detention facilities, and $1.5 trillion in defense funding, reflecting a substantial increase in spending commitments [7][8] - The elimination of green energy subsidies and tax breaks for electric vehicles under the Act is expected to impact traditional automakers positively while disadvantaging electric vehicle manufacturers [9][11] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is likely to accelerate interest rate cuts in response to the economic impacts of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, with current inflation at 2.4% and unemployment at 4.2% [13][15] - The Act's implementation may lead to a recession, prompting the Federal Reserve to adjust its policies to mitigate economic downturns [23] - The anticipated reduction in interest rates could stimulate the Hong Kong real estate market, as increased liquidity may lead to a recovery in property prices [17][23]

智通财经5月15日电，摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙谈及美国衰退可能性时表示，"我不会排除这种可能 性"。 ...

耶伦称特朗普关税将产生"极大的负面"影响，美国衰退几率显著上升。（英国金融时报） ...

智通财经5月1日电，耶伦称特朗普关税将产生"极大的负面"影响，美国衰退几率显著上升。 ...

白宫内部，也早已乱成一锅粥。高官互撕、顾问对骂，甚至在公开场合爆粗口。马斯克怒怼纳瓦罗，贝 森特痛斥鲁比奥，白宫变成了"宫斗剧"的直播现场。特朗普把政府变成了"家天下"的工具，高层圈子愈 发封闭，政策制定全凭心情，缺乏专业判断与法治程序的支撑。当年号称"特朗普铁军"的班底，如今看 起来更像一群没带剧本的即兴演员。 然而，内政混乱还只是序章，特朗普的"乱拳外交"更是把世界搅得天翻地覆。上任伊始，特朗普就掀起 了关税风暴，对中国商品加征高达245%的关税，还波及欧洲、日本、墨西哥等盟国，甚至"误伤"到企 鹅栖息的南极地区。如此荒谬的"全球加税"，让国际社会目瞪口呆，美国国内也怨声载道。"50501运 动"在全美蔓延，中小企业破产潮接连而至，"美国制造"并未回流，反而是"美国制造"的信心大幅流 失。华尔街哀嚎、工人罢工，特朗普还嘴硬地说"这是一场伟大的胜利"。 文︱陆弃 2025年1月20日，特朗普在一片喧嚣中重返白宫，彼时的他高举"美国优先"的旗帜，声称要"让美国再次 强大"，宣称他将用非传统方式彻底改造华盛顿。然而，仅仅一百天过去，世界看到的不是一个强大的 美国，而是一个政治失控、社会撕裂、经济动荡、外交孤立的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector and basic metals and processing [3]. Core Views - The report indicates that basic metals are likely to remain weak due to rising recession expectations in the U.S. following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, while precious metals, particularly gold, may have significant upward potential due to inflationary pressures and recession risks [1][14]. Summary by Sections Basic Metals - The report highlights that the recent reciprocal tariffs have led to a significant drop in copper prices, with expectations of continued weakness in prices due to heightened recession fears in the U.S. [10][12]. - Copper prices fell sharply after the announcement of tariffs, with the cumulative tariff rate on China reaching 54% over 25 years, leading to a decline in domestic copper processing rates [10]. - Aluminum prices also showed a downward trend, with a reported price of 20,520 CNY/ton, down 1.44% week-on-week, and expectations of weak demand due to global recession concerns [11]. Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a decline due to liquidity issues, despite not being directly affected by the new tariffs. The report notes that gold prices closed at 738.97 CNY/gram, reflecting a 4.23% increase week-on-week [13][24]. - The report maintains a positive outlook for gold, suggesting that inflationary disturbances and recession expectations will likely support its price in the future [14]. Lithium and Rare Earths - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply and declining demand, with the current price at 73,900 CNY/ton, down 0.54% week-on-week [16]. - Rare earth prices are also projected to fluctuate, with current prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 442,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase, but demand may weaken in the short term due to tariff impacts [15]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Shandong Gold (1787 HK) with a target price of 20.65 CNY and an "Overweight" rating [3].

⑤年初以来美国雇主已宣布裁员22万人，创2009年以来新高，其中，政府裁员数量超过6万人。 本文作者：刘晨明/ 郑恺/李如娟 报告摘要 扫描下图二维码 ， 可进入今晚20:30的路演链接 春节前后开始，有一些变化值得留意，可能预示"东升西落"不仅仅是宏观叙事： ①A股TMT成交额占比突破过去5年40%的上限（美国科技成交占比在23年率先突破40%）。 ②DeepSeek爆发以来，美股台积电跌幅超过20%，但是台股台积电跌幅10%左右。同时AH科技与美股科技的"劈叉"程度拉大。 ③2月密集看到了主要外资行对于中资股、中资科技转向看多的报告。 ④抵制马斯克的行动在欧洲展开，特斯拉2月在德国销量同比骤降76%。 ⑥特朗普连续两个月对中国加征10%关税，但市场反应甚微。 美股当前下跌背后是信心危机带来"美国例外论"退潮。 （1）美国基本面出现下行压力，GDPNow模型预测2025年美国第一季度实际GDP增长率为-2.8%。（2）1- 2月美国政府裁员数量超过6万人，引发财政支出收缩、私人消费和投资降低的预期。（3）美国对外加征关税以及行政指令的飘忽不定，通胀预期抬升。Tax Foundation估算美国2025年进口 ...