每周思考总第649期 | 标的 | 仓位 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 大盘占优 | 观点简述： 节前最后两个交易日+节后2个交易日，沪深300指数区间涨幅1.47%，上证综指周涨幅1.80%，中 证500指数周涨幅2.17%。市场在过去2周依旧被散户情绪带动冲高，但最终难免再度遭遇新一轮全球 黑天鹅事件。 基本面上，中方主动反击美方继续加码贸易冲突。 过去2周，中国双节而美国政府停摆，常规发 布的经济数据较少，本期直接讨论中美贸易战3.0，起因是在美国"名和暗打"的众多对中贸易摩擦操 作下的中国出口连月走弱及最终10月9日高调反制，包括芯片、稀土等领域，但 真正的推波助澜形成 黑天鹅级别的导火索则是美10月10日上午10:57分的特朗普宣布对中国进一步加征关税事件 ，全球股 市包括A50出现了一致性暴跌，并延伸至了美股盘后交易时段的进一步下跌，虚拟币市场出现史上最 大单日爆仓，部分币种净值一度"清零"，大部分币种单日最大跌幅在30-50%，上周五完全可以被界定 为黑色星期五+黑天鹅事件日。现有众多市场观点对比本次与今年4月7日的 ...

Group 1 - Elon Musk's controversial statement about the bleak future of the United States has sparked widespread discussion, highlighting concerns over internal governance and external competition [1][10] - Musk's experience with the Trump administration's efficiency reform plan revealed deep-rooted issues within the U.S. bureaucratic system, leading to increased government spending instead of the anticipated savings [2][4] - The U.S. leadership's lack of attention to the growing debt crisis was exposed when Musk faced backlash for opposing infrastructure legislation that could exacerbate national debt [4][10] Group 2 - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, cutting $25.7 billion and bringing the total to approximately $700 billion, the lowest level since 2009, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [5] - Chinese tech companies are diversifying their chip procurement strategies to reduce reliance on U.S. technology, driven by unpredictable U.S. export control policies [7] - China has shifted its agricultural imports, particularly soybeans, from the U.S. to Brazil due to competitive pricing and the impact of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration [9]

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act passed by the U.S. Senate raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, addressing immediate liquidity pressures faced by the U.S. Treasury [1][2][4] - The Act fulfills Trump's campaign promises, including tax cuts, increased military spending, and stricter immigration policies, while also targeting Democratic support bases by cutting Medicaid and food assistance [7][9] - The Act is projected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, which may necessitate accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][21] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury's cash balance has significantly decreased from $800 billion at the beginning of the year to $456.7 billion by June 30, 2025, indicating potential liquidity challenges [2][4] - The Act's provisions include $460 billion for border wall construction, $450 billion for immigrant detention facilities, and $1.5 trillion in defense funding, reflecting a substantial increase in spending commitments [7][8] - The elimination of green energy subsidies and tax breaks for electric vehicles under the Act is expected to impact traditional automakers positively while disadvantaging electric vehicle manufacturers [9][11] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is likely to accelerate interest rate cuts in response to the economic impacts of the "Big and Beautiful" Act, with current inflation at 2.4% and unemployment at 4.2% [13][15] - The Act's implementation may lead to a recession, prompting the Federal Reserve to adjust its policies to mitigate economic downturns [23] - The anticipated reduction in interest rates could stimulate the Hong Kong real estate market, as increased liquidity may lead to a recovery in property prices [17][23]

智通财经5月15日电，摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙谈及美国衰退可能性时表示，"我不会排除这种可能 性"。 ...

耶伦称特朗普关税将产生"极大的负面"影响，美国衰退几率显著上升。（英国金融时报） ...

智通财经5月1日电，耶伦称特朗普关税将产生"极大的负面"影响，美国衰退几率显著上升。 ...

白宫内部，也早已乱成一锅粥。高官互撕、顾问对骂，甚至在公开场合爆粗口。马斯克怒怼纳瓦罗，贝 森特痛斥鲁比奥，白宫变成了"宫斗剧"的直播现场。特朗普把政府变成了"家天下"的工具，高层圈子愈 发封闭，政策制定全凭心情，缺乏专业判断与法治程序的支撑。当年号称"特朗普铁军"的班底，如今看 起来更像一群没带剧本的即兴演员。 然而，内政混乱还只是序章，特朗普的"乱拳外交"更是把世界搅得天翻地覆。上任伊始，特朗普就掀起 了关税风暴，对中国商品加征高达245%的关税，还波及欧洲、日本、墨西哥等盟国，甚至"误伤"到企 鹅栖息的南极地区。如此荒谬的"全球加税"，让国际社会目瞪口呆，美国国内也怨声载道。"50501运 动"在全美蔓延，中小企业破产潮接连而至，"美国制造"并未回流，反而是"美国制造"的信心大幅流 失。华尔街哀嚎、工人罢工，特朗普还嘴硬地说"这是一场伟大的胜利"。 文︱陆弃 2025年1月20日，特朗普在一片喧嚣中重返白宫，彼时的他高举"美国优先"的旗帜，声称要"让美国再次 强大"，宣称他将用非传统方式彻底改造华盛顿。然而，仅仅一百天过去，世界看到的不是一个强大的 美国，而是一个政治失控、社会撕裂、经济动荡、外交孤立的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector and basic metals and processing [3]. Core Views - The report indicates that basic metals are likely to remain weak due to rising recession expectations in the U.S. following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, while precious metals, particularly gold, may have significant upward potential due to inflationary pressures and recession risks [1][14]. Summary by Sections Basic Metals - The report highlights that the recent reciprocal tariffs have led to a significant drop in copper prices, with expectations of continued weakness in prices due to heightened recession fears in the U.S. [10][12]. - Copper prices fell sharply after the announcement of tariffs, with the cumulative tariff rate on China reaching 54% over 25 years, leading to a decline in domestic copper processing rates [10]. - Aluminum prices also showed a downward trend, with a reported price of 20,520 CNY/ton, down 1.44% week-on-week, and expectations of weak demand due to global recession concerns [11]. Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a decline due to liquidity issues, despite not being directly affected by the new tariffs. The report notes that gold prices closed at 738.97 CNY/gram, reflecting a 4.23% increase week-on-week [13][24]. - The report maintains a positive outlook for gold, suggesting that inflationary disturbances and recession expectations will likely support its price in the future [14]. Lithium and Rare Earths - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply and declining demand, with the current price at 73,900 CNY/ton, down 0.54% week-on-week [16]. - Rare earth prices are also projected to fluctuate, with current prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 442,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase, but demand may weaken in the short term due to tariff impacts [15]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies such as Shandong Gold (1787 HK) with a target price of 20.65 CNY and an "Overweight" rating [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between Chinese and American assets, highlighting the potential for A-shares to perform independently amid a challenging U.S. market environment [13][14]. Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares in the TMT sector have seen trading volume exceed 40% for the first time in five years, mirroring trends in the U.S. tech sector [3]. - The divergence between AH technology stocks and U.S. tech stocks has widened, with the negative correlation between the ChiNext 50 and Nasdaq 100 reaching -0.78 [13]. - Major foreign banks have shifted their outlook to bullish on Chinese stocks and technology [5]. Group 2: U.S. Market Challenges - The U.S. market is experiencing a confidence crisis, with significant layoffs announced, totaling 220,000 since the beginning of the year, the highest since 2009 [7]. - The GDPNow model predicts a -2.8% growth rate for the U.S. in Q1 2025, indicating downward pressure on the U.S. economy [9]. - The MAG7 index has seen a decline of 15.7% over 54 trading days, surpassing previous adjustment periods in both duration and magnitude [22]. Group 3: Implications for A-shares - A-shares may attract global capital if their fundamentals significantly outperform those of U.S. stocks [10]. - The potential for A-share valuation increases exists if the Chinese economy shows signs of recovery while the U.S. economy remains stagnant [26]. - The narrative of a "soft landing" in the U.S. could be beneficial for AH assets, with ongoing developments in AI and robotics sectors providing investment opportunities [35][36]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The real estate sector in China has shown mixed signals, with a cumulative year-on-year increase in transaction volume of 2.25% as of March 8 [38]. - The automotive market has seen a 26% year-on-year increase in retail sales for February, with significant growth in the new energy vehicle segment [39]. - In the steel industry, the average daily production has increased by 12.96% compared to mid-February, indicating a recovery in demand [40]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for February stands at 50.30, indicating stability in the manufacturing sector [46]. - China's official manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 50.2, reflecting a slight improvement from the previous month [49]. - The recent MLF injection by the People's Bank of China totaled 300 billion yuan, maintaining stable monetary policy [50].