Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China is expected to decrease due to the sustained negative change rate of international crude oil prices during the current pricing cycle [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from August 12 to August 26), international crude oil prices have fluctuated within the range of 63-66 USD per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and economic expectations [1]. - The change rate of reference crude oil as of August 22 was -4.41%, indicating a potential reduction in gasoline and diesel prices by approximately 190 CNY per ton [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Industries - If the price reduction is confirmed, private car owners filling a 50L tank will save about 7.5 CNY, while a typical fuel-efficient car running 2000 km per month will see a decrease in fuel costs of around 12 CNY before the next pricing window [2]. - For the logistics industry, a heavy truck running 10,000 km per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 km will experience a reduction in fuel costs of approximately 304 CNY before the next pricing window [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there are risks associated with geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia, the international oil price may still find some support due to these factors [2]. - The possibility of a positive change rate in the next pricing cycle is anticipated, influenced by OPEC's production decisions and the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that domestic refined oil prices are set to increase for the third time, effective from July 1 at 24:00, due to fluctuations in international oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][3] - According to Zhaochuang Information, the reference crude oil change rate is currently at 5.41%, leading to an expected increase in retail prices of gasoline and diesel by 235 and 225 yuan per ton respectively, which translates to an increase of 0.18, 0.19, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1][3] - The increase in fuel costs for consumers is illustrated with examples: filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan, while a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 km will see an increase of approximately 13 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment window on July 15 [3] Group 2 - The logistics industry will experience a significant impact, with a heavy-duty truck running 10,000 km per month and consuming 38L per 100 km facing an increase of around 337 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [3] - Despite the recent easing of geopolitical tensions leading to a drop in international oil prices, the upcoming summer demand peak in the U.S. is expected to provide support for oil prices, indicating a potential for continued volatility in the market [3] - The new pricing cycle may present a downward adjustment expectation for domestic refined oil prices, with the next adjustment window scheduled for July 15 at 24:00 [3]