今晚油价"三连涨"，加油站的队已经排到明年了！ | 地区 | 92汽油 | 95汽油 | 98汽油 | 0号柴油 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | 6.93 | 7.38 | 8.87 | 6.61 | | 上海 | 6.90 | 7.34 | 9.35 | 6.55 | | 江苏 | 6.91 | 7.35 | 9.41 | 6.54 | | 天津 | 6.92 | 7.31 | 8.82 | 6.57 | | 重庆 | 7.01 | 7.40 | 8.90 | 6.65 | | 江西 | 6.90 | 7.40 | 8.91 | 6.62 | | 辽宁 | 6.92 | 7.50 | 8.16 | 6.48 | | 安徽 | 6.90 | 7.40 | 8.91 | 6.62 | | 内蒙古 | 6.94 | 7.36 | 8.03 | 6.45 | | 福建 | 6.91 | 7.37 | 8.88 | 6.57 | | 宁夏 | 6.84 | 7.23 | 8.25 | 6.47 | | 甘肃 | 6.93 | 7.39 | 7.97 | 6.49 | ...

新一轮成品油调价窗口周期内，国际原油上涨，地缘紧张局势导致风险溢价主导国际原油走势，基本面 对原油影响有限，国际原油录得近六个月高位。本轮原油变化率持续正值范围内运行，当前成品油零售 调价窗口处于上调预期。监测模型显示，截至2月23日收盘，国内第10个工作日参考原油的变化率为 3.98%，预计汽、柴油零售限价每吨分别上调175和170元，折合升价92#汽油、95#汽油、0#柴油分别上 调0.14、0.15、0.14元，调价窗口为2026年2月24日24时。若本轮成品油零售限价上调确认后，私家车单 次加满一箱50L的油后将多花7元。（ 卓创资讯） ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices in China are set to adjust on February 3 at 24:00, with an expected increase due to rising international oil prices, leading to a price hike of approximately 0.11 to 0.13 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel [5][6]. Price Adjustment Details - The recent increase in international oil prices has resulted in a crude oil price change rate of 3.13%, prompting an anticipated price increase of 140 yuan per ton, which exceeds the standard adjustment [5][6]. - The upcoming adjustment will affect both gasoline and diesel prices, with the expected increase being between 0.11 yuan/liter and 0.13 yuan/liter [5][6]. Price Adjustment Calendar - The oil price adjustment calendar for 2026 includes the following dates: - January 6, January 20 - February 3, February 24 - March 9, March 23 - April 7, April 21 - May 8, May 21 - June 4, June 18 - July 3, July 17 - July 31, August 14 - August 28, September 11 - September 24, October 15 - October 29, November 12 - November 26, December 10 - December 24 [2][3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil prices have been on the rise during the current pricing cycle, leading to an expected increase in domestic refined oil retail prices, marking the first "double increase" of the year on February 3 [1] Pricing Trends - The WTI crude oil price has stabilized above $60 per barrel and has surpassed $65 per barrel, resulting in a positive change rate for crude oil [1] - As of January 30, the reference crude oil change rate was calculated at 5.32%, indicating an expected increase of 230 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1] Consumer Impact - The upcoming price adjustment window on February 3 is likely to result in higher fuel costs for consumers, with an estimated additional cost of 9 yuan for filling a tank of 92-octane gasoline during the Spring Festival [1] - After the price adjustment, there will be no further price changes before the Spring Festival, leading to increased fuel costs for consumers during the holiday period [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that domestic fuel prices in China have increased for the first time in 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 85 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.07 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [1] - The increase in fuel prices will lead to a slight rise in consumer fuel costs, with an example showing that filling a 50L tank of 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 3.5 yuan, and for heavy trucks running 10,000 kilometers a month, the fuel cost will increase by approximately 124 yuan before the next price adjustment [1] - The price adjustment is attributed to rising international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and South America, which have caused oil prices to rise over 10% in five consecutive days [1][2] Group 2 - The international oil price showed a trend of rising first and then falling during the pricing cycle, with an average level that increased compared to the previous period [2] - As a result of the geopolitical tensions, the domestic reference crude oil change rate shifted from negative to positive, with a calculated rate of 2.03% as of January 19 [3] - As of January 20, WTI crude oil futures closed at $59.35 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.13 per barrel, both showing a slight increase of 0.03% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China will see its first increase in 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 85 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.07 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel, effective from 24:00 tonight [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The price adjustment is triggered by a shift in the crude oil price change rate from negative to positive during the current pricing cycle [1]. - After the adjustment, the cost for filling a 50-liter tank in a small private car will increase by approximately 3.5 yuan, and for a small car running 2,000 kilometers per month with an 8-liter fuel consumption per 100 kilometers, the total fuel cost will rise by 5 yuan before the next price adjustment window [1]. - For heavy trucks running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38 liters per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will increase by around 124 yuan before the next adjustment [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and South America have provided support for oil prices, leading to a cumulative increase of over 10% in crude oil prices over five days, but subsequent easing signals from the U.S. have led to a price decline [3]. - Analysts expect ongoing geopolitical uncertainties to continue affecting international oil prices, while macroeconomic pressures and industry oversupply may suppress upward momentum, resulting in a volatile market [3]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a certain demand for gasoline, which may support prices, but diesel consumption is expected to decline due to reduced activity in industries like mining and construction [3].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China have experienced their first increase of the year, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 85 yuan per ton, translating to an increase of 0.07 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel [1][2][3] Price Impact - Consumers will see a slight increase in fuel costs; for example, filling a 50L tank of 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 3.5 yuan, while a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will incur an additional fuel cost of approximately 124 yuan before the next price adjustment [2] Market Dynamics - The recent price adjustment is the second for 2026 and the first for this year [3] - International oil prices have fluctuated due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and South America, which initially supported prices but later saw a decline as the U.S. signaled easing tensions. Overall, the average international oil price increased during the pricing cycle [5][10] - As of January 20, WTI crude oil futures closed at $59.35 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.13 per barrel, both showing a slight increase of 0.03% [7] Future Price Predictions - Analysts are divided on the outlook for the next round of fuel price adjustments, with some indicating a high probability of an increase due to ongoing geopolitical risks and seasonal demand for fuel [9][12] - Others suggest that there may be expectations for price stabilization, particularly as demand for diesel may decrease with lower industrial activity [13][14] - The next price adjustment window is set to open on February 3 at 24:00 [16]

Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China is expected to see a slight increase due to fluctuations in international crude oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Price Changes - The average price of crude oil has increased compared to the previous period, leading to a positive change rate for domestic reference crude oil [1] - As of January 16, the reference crude oil change rate was calculated at 2.01%, indicating an expected increase of 85 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [1] - The anticipated price increase for 92 gasoline and 0 diesel is approximately 0.07 yuan per liter, resulting in an additional cost of around 3 yuan for filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Initial concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caused crude oil prices to rise, but subsequent easing signals from the U.S. led to a significant drop in prices [1] - The upcoming price adjustment window is set for January 20 at 24:00, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in crude oil prices before this time [1] - The slight increase in retail prices is likely to impact consumer fuel costs for personal and logistics transportation over the next two weeks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations, with a potential increase in the upcoming adjustment scheduled for January 20, 2026, due to rising international oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions [3][5]. Group 1: Current Price Adjustments - As of January 6, 2026, domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 45 yuan per ton, leading to a situation of price stasis [1]. - The current average price for 92 gasoline in Beijing is stable at 6.7 yuan per liter, while in Shandong, it hovers around 6.67 yuan per liter [3]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - The next price adjustment is set for January 20, 2026, with a countdown of 9 days remaining from the current adjustment [3]. - The current cycle has completed 30% of its duration, with predictions indicating a potential decrease in gasoline and diesel prices by 80 yuan per ton, although this figure has been revised downwards by 40 yuan per ton due to recent market changes [5]. Group 3: International Oil Market Influence - International oil prices have seen a significant increase, with WTI crude oil rising to $59.12 per barrel and Brent crude to $63.34 per barrel, reflecting a 5.6% increase over two days [5]. - The rise in oil prices is attributed to worsening conditions in Iran, raising concerns about global oil supply disruptions [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - There is a growing concern among analysts that if international oil prices continue to rise, the upcoming price adjustment on January 20 could result in the first increase of the year for domestic oil prices [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the international crude oil market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with limited fluctuations, and domestic retail fuel prices are likely to remain unchanged due to insufficient adjustment margins [1][2] - The analysis from Zhaochuang Information highlights that despite geopolitical tensions from the U.S. military's actions in Venezuela, the market is overshadowed by a supply surplus and seasonal demand weakness in the U.S., leading to cautious sentiment among downstream traders [1] - As of January 5, the reference crude oil change rate was at 1.07%, suggesting a potential increase of 45 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, but the adjustment is expected to be stalled due to the change rate being below the 50 yuan per ton threshold [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, Zhaochuang Information anticipates that the geopolitical situation remains controllable, but the U.S. is still in a period of low oil consumption, leading to significant pressure on oil inventories and a forecast of weak downward trends in international oil prices [2] - The next pricing adjustment cycle is expected to start with a positive crude oil change rate, potentially leading to an increase of around 20 yuan per ton, with the adjustment window set for January 20 [2]