【油价最新消息】截至2025年10月7日，今天，由于双节假期缘故，2025年第20次调价，本轮计价周期仍停滞在前6个工作日！从数据显示，9月30日，参考9 月29日国际油价下降，最新原油统计均价66.91美元/桶，原油变化率2.62%，汽柴油预估上涨140元/吨，参考92/95号汽油以及0号柴油，统计汽柴油上涨预期 在0.13元/升左右！ 2025年10月7日，星期二，农历八月十六，今天，国庆以及中秋假期进入尾声，按照汽柴油以10个工作日为周期，新周期第7个工作日进行中，此次油价调 整，市场呈现"过山车"的局面，前5个工作日显著上涨，第6个工作日后涨幅或逐步收窄，此次油价上涨或难兑现，汽柴油或将迎来今年第7次搁浅的局面！ 具体分析如下： 【油价前情回顾】按照汽柴油调价机制，上一次，今年第19次调价，原油变化率负值开端，但是，周期内，汽柴油涨至40元/吨！好在，周期末，原油价格 恢复下降，9月23日24时，9月第二次调价，油价调整幅度不足50元/吨的标准线，国内汽柴油迎来今年第6次搁浅的局面，9月份，成品油呈现二连搁浅的走 势！ 基于9月份汽柴油搁浅调价，截至目前，国内各地加油站，92/95号汽油以及0号柴油， ...

国内成品油调价窗口将于今日24时开启 据卓创资讯分析师王芦青：本计价周期内，前期受俄乌和中东局势升级影响，市场担忧石油整体供应， 后期随着地缘局势影响减弱，在供应增加和需求弱化的背景下，原油连续多日呈现偏弱行情。受此影 响，本周期原油变化率处于正值低位水平，据卓创资讯测算，截至9月22日收盘，国内第10个工作日， 参考原油变化率0.39%，预计汽柴油上调15元/吨，未达到成品油零售限价50元/吨的调价红线，调价窗 口9月23日24时。根据当前的幅度来看，本轮成品油零售限价调整或再次搁浅。 最新监测数据显示 后市预测方面：卓创资讯预计，关注石油库存等基本面数据，累库周期将给予油价下行压力，但是美联 储降息和欧洲局势扰动，都给予油价部分支撑，短期看，国际油价或偏弱运行。按当前原油价格测算， 新周期的原油变化率负值开局，预计首日对应的成品油零售限价下调幅度在80元/吨，调价窗口在10月 13日24时，因下轮调价周期横跨国庆、中秋假期，调价周期较长，最终结果尚存较大不确定性。 汽柴油调整幅度可能再次踩线搁浅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current round of retail fuel price adjustment is likely to be suspended due to insufficient adjustment margin, with the expected increase in gasoline and diesel prices being only 15 yuan/ton, which does not meet the 50 yuan/ton requirement for adjustment [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from September 9 to September 23), international crude oil prices showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the change rate moving from negative to positive but remaining at a low level [1] - As of September 22, the reference crude oil change rate was 0.39%, indicating a potential increase in retail fuel prices by 15 yuan/ton, with the adjustment window set for September 23 at 24:00 [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The crude oil market has been influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, including concerns over oil supply due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, which initially supported higher oil prices [1] - However, as geopolitical disturbances have lessened and expectations of oil inventory accumulation remain, crude oil prices have shown a weak trend in recent days [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the ongoing inventory accumulation cycle will exert downward pressure on oil prices, while factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and disturbances in Europe may provide some support [1] - For the next pricing cycle, the initial crude oil change rate is expected to start negatively, with a projected retail fuel price decrease of 80 yuan/ton, with the adjustment window on October 13 at 24:00 [1] - The upcoming adjustment cycle will span the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, leading to significant uncertainty regarding the final price adjustment outcome [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand leading to a decline in oil prices, geopolitical risks persist and market fears of future resource supply reductions have caused international oil prices to rise intermittently [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The change rate of crude oil shifted from negative to positive, reaching 0.59% as of September 19, indicating a potential adjustment in oil pricing [1] - An expected increase of 25 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel prices is anticipated, with the adjustment window set for September 9 at 24:00 [1] Group 2: Retail Price Adjustments - Current calculations suggest that the final retail price adjustment for refined oil may not reach the necessary condition of a 50 yuan per ton increase, indicating a possible stalling of this round of retail price adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on August 26, with expectations for a decrease, marking the seventh adjustment of the year, ending two consecutive rounds of stasis [1]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Expectations - Analysts from Zhuochuang Information and Jinlianchuang indicate that the international crude oil market lacks strong positive signals, leading to a sustained negative change rate for crude oil prices, which is expected to result in a decrease in retail prices for refined oil [1][3]. - As of August 22, the reference crude oil change rate was -4.41%, with anticipated reductions of 190 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to price drops of 0.15 yuan and 0.16 yuan per liter respectively [1][2]. - If the current round of price adjustments is implemented, the total price changes for gasoline and diesel since the beginning of the year would be a decrease of 225 yuan and 215 yuan per ton respectively [1]. Group 2: Historical Price Adjustment Summary - In 2025, there have been a total of sixteen price adjustment windows, resulting in six increases, six decreases, and four stasis periods [2]. - The next round of retail price adjustments is scheduled for September 9 at 24:00, following the "ten working days" principle [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that OPEC+ will maintain a significant production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September, while geopolitical uncertainties and sanctions on certain oil-producing countries may pose potential supply risks [3]. - Despite seasonal demand boosts from summer travel in the U.S., overall demand outlook remains pessimistic due to weak global economic data, leading to expectations that the next round of refined oil price adjustments may remain unchanged [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel prices in China have been reduced for the seventh time this year, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 180 yuan/ton and 175 yuan/ton respectively, leading to lower travel costs for consumers [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The price adjustments translate to a reduction of 0.14 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.15 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline and 0-octane diesel [1] - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will save approximately 7 yuan [1] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see a decrease in fuel costs of around 266 yuan before the next price adjustment window [1] Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle, international oil prices experienced a decline followed by an increase, but the crude oil price change rate remained negative [2] - As of August 26, WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.43% to $64.94 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.39% to $68.36 per barrel [2] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a higher probability of price increases in the next round of fuel price adjustments due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the U.S. [4][5] - Current oil prices are rebounding, indicating a correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding previous negotiations, with market focus shifting back to European issues [6] - The next price adjustment window is expected to open on September 9, 2025, at 24:00 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current round of retail fuel price adjustments in China is expected to result in a decrease in gasoline and diesel prices due to a negative change rate in international oil prices during the pricing cycle [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - The retail price of gasoline and diesel is anticipated to decrease by 180 and 175 yuan per ton respectively, with adjustments to 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel expected to be 0.14, 0.15, and 0.15 yuan per liter [1] - The adjustment window for these price changes is set for August 26 at 24:00 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The analysis indicates that the international oil market has been influenced by mixed factors, including reduced geopolitical supply risks due to meetings between leaders from the US, Russia, and Europe, and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [1] - Despite the fluctuations, the overall trend shows that international oil prices lack a strong bullish signal, maintaining a negative change rate throughout the current pricing cycle [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, there is an expectation for an upward adjustment in domestic retail fuel prices in the next pricing cycle, which is scheduled for September 9 at 24:00, as the current oil price changes indicate a potential positive shift [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease, with specific reductions in gasoline and diesel prices due to a -4.09% change in the reference crude oil price as of August 25 [1] - The anticipated reductions are 180 yuan per ton for gasoline and 175 yuan per ton for diesel, translating to a decrease of 0.14 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.15 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.15 yuan for 0 diesel [1] - Following the price adjustment, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost 7 yuan less for private car owners, with the adjustment window set for August 26 at 24:00 [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the current crude oil price calculations indicate a potential for future price increases, with the next adjustment window scheduled for September 9 at 24:00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to decrease as of August 26, 2023, due to a negative change rate in international oil prices during the pricing cycle from August 12 to August 26 [1][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Details - The international oil price experienced fluctuations, initially declining and then rising, but remained in a negative change rate range throughout the cycle [3]. - According to data from Zhaochuang Information, as of August 25, the change rate for the reference crude oil was -4.09%, leading to expected reductions of 180 and 175 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, respectively [3]. - The price adjustments for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel are expected to decrease by 0.14, 0.15, and 0.15 yuan per liter, respectively [3]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Industries - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will save approximately 7 yuan after the price adjustment [3]. - For a typical fuel-consuming vehicle running 2,000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost is projected to decrease by around 10 yuan before the next price adjustment window on September 9, 2025 [3]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see a reduction in fuel costs of approximately 266 yuan before the next price adjustment [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The recent rebound in oil prices is viewed as a correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding peace talks, with ongoing market focus on European issues [4]. - The current calculations suggest a potential positive change rate for crude oil prices, indicating an expectation for future increases in domestic refined oil retail prices [4]. - The next price adjustment window is anticipated to be on September 9, 2023, at 24:00 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic retail price of refined oil in China is expected to decrease due to the sustained negative change rate of international crude oil prices during the current pricing cycle [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - During the current pricing cycle (from August 12 to August 26), international crude oil prices have fluctuated within the range of 63-66 USD per barrel, influenced by geopolitical factors and economic expectations [1]. - The change rate of reference crude oil as of August 22 was -4.41%, indicating a potential reduction in gasoline and diesel prices by approximately 190 CNY per ton [1]. Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Industries - If the price reduction is confirmed, private car owners filling a 50L tank will save about 7.5 CNY, while a typical fuel-efficient car running 2000 km per month will see a decrease in fuel costs of around 12 CNY before the next pricing window [2]. - For the logistics industry, a heavy truck running 10,000 km per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 km will experience a reduction in fuel costs of approximately 304 CNY before the next pricing window [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there are risks associated with geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia, the international oil price may still find some support due to these factors [2]. - The possibility of a positive change rate in the next pricing cycle is anticipated, influenced by OPEC's production decisions and the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation [2].