1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 11, the PTA market showed an upward trend with a strengthening basis, while the MEG market declined with a weakening basis [2][4]. - The PTA market is expected to follow the cost - end to fluctuate, and its inventory pattern will gradually shift to accumulation. The MEG price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom under the expectation of increased supply and decreased demand [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents PTA - **Main Contract**: On December 11, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.69%, and the basis strengthened to - 17 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4645 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fell below $62, and OPEC+ maintained the decision to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly inventory days of PTA factories were 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - side main forces reduced their positions [3]. - **Trend Expectation**: The previously overhauled PTA capacity will gradually restart, and the inventory pattern will gradually shift to accumulation. The downstream polyester start - up rate decreased slightly from a high level, and the terminal demand is expected to weaken further. The PTA processing fee is around 170 yuan, and the PTA market is expected to follow the cost - end to fluctuate in the short term [3]. MEG - **Main Contract**: On December 11, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 2.23%, and the basis weakened to - 32 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3613 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices of crude oil and coal both declined. The weekly inventory at East China MEG ports totaled 75.5 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons compared to the previous week [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: There were differences among long - side and short - side main forces [4]. - **Trend Expectation**: MEG continued to accumulate inventory, with a reduced accumulation rate, but the expectation has not been reversed. Some domestic plants have been shut down for maintenance, temporarily relieving the supply - side pressure. However, the maintenance volume at the low absolute price is lower than expected. There are still expected new capacity put into production in the future, and the MEG price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom under the expectation of increased supply and decreased demand [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate with the cost side in the short - term. Supply reduction is significant recently, but previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, leading to a shift to inventory accumulation. The cancellation of export restrictions by India boosts exports, while downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally weaken [3]. - MEG: Under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction, MEG may oscillate at a low level. It is continuously accumulating inventory, though the accumulation rate has decreased. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, and an Iranian plant has shut down [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Performance**: On December 04, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.34%, and the basis weakened to - 37 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4685 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. OPEC + decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.92 days, a 0.14 - day increase from the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - side main forces increased their positions [3]. MEG - **Market Performance**: On December 04, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.41%, and the basis weakened to - 8 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. The production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly MEG port inventory in East China totaled 71.9 tons, a 1.1 - ton increase from the previous week [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: There was a divergence between long - side and short - side main forces [4].

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the market is expected to follow the cost - end fluctuations in the short term, with supply reduction and potential restarts of previously shut - down capacities, and downstream polyester开工 to seasonally weaken. For MEG, it may oscillate at a low level under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **主力合约**: On December 2nd, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.34%, and the basis weakened to - 32 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of PTA in East China today was 4720 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end crude oil price rose, OPEC + maintained the resolution to suspend production increase in Q1, 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous week [3] - **主力动向**: Long - position main players reduced their positions [3] - **预期**: Recently, PTA supply has decreased significantly. Previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, leading to a phased de - stocking of PTA. India's BIS cancellation is a boost to exports. The downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally weaken. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production by plants under the repair of processing fees [3] MEG - **主力合约**: On December 2nd, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.41%, and the basis weakened by - 6 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today was 3876 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - end crude oil price increased, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly inventory of MEG ports in East China totaled 70.8 tons, an increase of 7.5 tons compared to the previous week [4] - **主力动向**: There was a divergence among long and short main players [4] - **预期**: Ethylene glycol has been accumulating inventory in recent weeks, and the expectation has not changed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production and conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure of ethylene glycol. A 3.3 - million - ton plant in Iran has recently shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. The downstream polyester开工 remains stable but has entered the consumption off - season [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level needs to be monitored for the rebound of the market [10]. - For PTA, although the spot basis weakened due to the resumption of some device loads and new device commissioning last week, it is close to the risk - free arbitrage level. With the load reduction of some mainstream PTA suppliers' devices, the downward space of the basis is expected to be limited. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory is expected to remain stable at the beginning of this week. Although the spot supply is abundant due to the continuous recovery of the load last week, there is replenishment demand at the low price, so the price center is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: On Friday, individual devices unexpectedly reduced their loads, and the basis slightly strengthened during the day session. The October cargo was traded at a discount of 80 - 85 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4310 - 4370. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4340, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 62, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main position: Net short position with an increase in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The basis is expected to have limited downward space, and the absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term. Pay attention to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market basis slightly strengthened. The intraday futures price opened high and then declined. Some traders with contract gaps participated in replenishment at low prices. The spot basis moderately strengthened in the afternoon, and the spot was traded at a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The overseas price center also weakened [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4096, and the basis of the 01 contract is 93, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.5 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous period [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main position: Net short position with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The port inventory is expected to remain stable at the beginning of this week. The price center is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term. Pay attention to the polyester load and device changes [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity gradually increased, and the production and demand also showed certain fluctuations. For example, in October 2025, the production capacity was 9172, the output was 647, and the total demand was 669 [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total supply and demand of ethylene glycol also changed. In October 2025, the total supply was 252, and the total demand was 249 [12]. Price Data - On October 17, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers showed different degrees of change. For example, the spot price of naphtha increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, while the CCFEI price index of PTA decreased by 40 to 4330 yuan/ton [13]. Inventory Data - The inventory of PTA factories, MEG ports, and various polyester products showed different trends from 2021 to 2025 [41][43][49]. Production Rate Data - The production rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms showed different trends from 2020 to 2025 [52][54][56][58]. Profit Data - The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and various polyester products showed different trends from 2022 to 2025 [13][60][62][64][66][67]. 5. Impact Factor Summary - Bullish factors: Before the festival, the polyester market sales were booming under the resonance of demand recovery and oil price rebound. The inventory of POY and FDY decreased rapidly, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. The 2.2 - million - ton device of Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load [8][9]. - Bearish factors: The 3.6 - million - ton device of Yisheng New Materials reached full load, and the loads of 3.2 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang and 2.5 - million - ton device of Weilian Chemical increased [9].