1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the steel market prices remained stable overall. On the supply side, although the output of rebar increased slightly week - on - week, it was still at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, with limited supply pressure. On the demand side, with the resumption of work after the holiday, the apparent consumption increased significantly, but the absolute level was still low. The inventory was accumulating, but the growth rate slowed down, and the year - on - year increase was only 3%, so the overall inventory pressure was still within the controllable range. During the Two Sessions this week, the window period of macro - positive factors and geopolitical risks supported the prices of finished products. Although the post - holiday demand had some resilience, it was difficult to have a remarkable performance. There was still room for the resumption of production of blast furnaces and electric furnaces in the later stage. It was expected that the demand recovery speed would be slower than the supply recovery speed, and inventory pressure would still exist. With limited fundamental support, there was still pressure for a high - level correction after the futures market rally [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The steel market prices were stable this week. Rebar output increased week - on - week but was at a five - year low in the same period. Demand recovered after the holiday but remained at a low absolute level. Inventory was growing but at a slower pace, with a 3% year - on - year increase. During the Two Sessions, macro - positive factors and geopolitical risks supported prices. Demand was resilient but not outstanding, and there was room for production resumption. Demand recovery was expected to be slower than supply, and inventory pressure would persist. The futures market might face a high - level correction [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The average daily hot metal output of steel mills was 227.59 million tons, a decrease of 5.69 million tons (-2.44%) from the previous week. Rebar mill inventory was 237.93 million tons, an increase of 5.09 million tons (2.19%). Rebar social inventory was 637.75 million tons, an increase of 69.99 million tons (12.33%). Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 90.08 million tons, a decrease of 4.7 million tons (-4.96%). Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 381.61 million tons, an increase of 24.24 million tons (6.78%) [3]. Futures Market Review - The report includes graphs such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, futures market coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [4][5][10]. Spot Market Review - The report includes graphs such as the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [14][15]. Fundamental Data - The report includes graphs such as the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [17][22][24].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, steel prices rose slightly, market sentiment was high, inventory was depleted, and there were expectations of maintenance production. The overall market enthusiasm was relatively high, demand improved to some extent, and raw material support remained strong. The bottom of steel prices may have been determined. As of November 28, the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in major cities across the country was 3,291 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,473 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton. - In December, the Central Economic Work Conference is about to be held, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the rebar inventory level is still relatively high year - on - year. As the off - season deepens, demand expectations are still under pressure, and the upside space of the futures market is limited. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - This week, steel prices rose slightly, with improved demand and strong raw material support. The bottom of steel prices may be determined. - Looking ahead, the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest rate cut expectations create a warm macro - environment, driving a potential low - level rebound in the futures market. But high rebar inventory and weakening demand in the off - season limit the upside space, and the futures price is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations. [2] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Data Item | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average pig iron output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 234.68 | 236.28 | - 1.6 | - 0.68% | Weekly | | Rebar inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 146.73 | 153.32 | - 6.59 | - 4.30% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 384.75 | 400.02 | - 15.27 | - 3.82% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 78.02 | 78.02 | 0 | 0% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 322.88 | 324.09 | - 1.21 | - 0.37% | Weekly | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is affected by the military parade's production restrictions. After the parade, steel mills are resuming production, but demand has not significantly improved, and finished products continue to accumulate inventory. The short - term outlook is weak, and attention should be paid to blast furnace resumption and demand performance [1]. - The iron ore supply has increased, and the demand (daily hot metal production) has decreased due to the military parade's production restrictions. Steel mills are resuming production, and it is expected that hot metal production will recover next week. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited, and attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on arrivals, as well as iron ore shipments and hot metal changes [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke is becoming more abundant, and the market is in a state of shock. For coking coal, the market sentiment is bearish due to factors such as coking profit compression and weakening thermal coal prices. For coke, the fundamentals are weakening due to the decline in steel mill profits, and attention should be paid to the impact of coal over - production inspections in September and the demand for finished products in the peak season [5][6]. - The supply of thermal coal is gradually recovering, and the price is oscillating. In the short term, the price is weakening, and in the long - term, the supply is still abundant. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and replenishment [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures price of rebar was 3117 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil was 3313 yuan/ton. The spot steel transaction was good, with the national construction steel trading volume reaching 101,000 tons, a daily increase of 22.87%. Affected by the military parade's production restrictions in Hebei, the production of rolled plates has decreased significantly. After the parade, steel mills are resuming production, but demand has not improved, and finished products continue to accumulate inventory [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures price of iron ore oscillated upwards, with the main 2601 contract closing at 791.5 yuan/ton, a 1.87% increase. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan Port increased slightly. The total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports across the country was 905,000 tons, a 4.75% increase from the previous day. The forward spot transaction volume was 1.748 million tons, a 74.80% increase. The supply has increased, the demand (hot metal production) has decreased due to production restrictions, and steel mills are resuming production. The port inventory has increased and is at a medium level [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the futures of coking coal and coke oscillated. After the military parade, both supply and demand are in the resumption stage, and the market supply is becoming more abundant. The supply of coking coal in the production area will gradually recover, and the bearish sentiment is strong. The number of customs - cleared vehicles for imported Mongolian coal has increased, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 910 - 930 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options) are not available [7]. Thermal Coal Market Analysis - The price of thermal coal in the production area is oscillating. The supply in the production area is gradually recovering, the daily consumption of power coal has decreased, and the price is oscillating weakly in the short term. The supply is abundant in the long term. The port market is weak, and the import market is also lackluster [8]. Strategy - No strategy provided [9].