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房地产长期处于有价无市状态,没有所谓的底部只有需求不足
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-18 12:14
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has become complex and diverse, moving away from the simplistic notion of "buy low, sell high" that characterized the market two decades ago. Current discussions should focus on demand rather than just pricing dynamics. Pricing Analysis - Real estate prices vary significantly, with major cities and provincial tourism cities experiencing high prices, while most third and fourth-tier cities have prices within a normal range. For instance, a price of 6,000 yuan per square meter is considered reasonable when adjusted for inflation [1]. - The perception of high prices in smaller cities is often due to a lack of consideration for inflation over the past 20 years, making current prices appear inflated [1]. - The current issue in the market is not about pricing but rather insufficient demand, as most rural residents have already purchased homes, leaving little concern for future price increases in these areas [1]. Demand Dynamics - The demand in third and fourth-tier cities is expected to take years to recover, as current inventory levels need to be sufficiently reduced before any significant price changes occur. Until then, supply will continue to exceed demand, leading to stagnant prices [2]. - In major cities, while there are reports of price drops, these often only reflect a reduction in speculative bubbles rather than actual price declines. Properties priced above 50,000 yuan per square meter are largely considered speculative bubbles, while those below this threshold may represent true market prices [2]. - The economic downturn has led to a clearer understanding among consumers regarding housing affordability, with many unable to manage high monthly mortgage payments, thus disconnecting high-value properties from the average consumer's reality [2]. Property Sellability - Not all properties are sellable at reduced prices; older buildings without modern amenities, such as elevators, struggle to attract buyers. The current market shows a preference for properties that meet modern living standards, making older, less desirable units difficult to sell [2].
房价跌麻了!深圳一楼盘3年暴跌43%,300万的房子当前只值170万…
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-17 22:59
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Longgang, Shenzhen, is experiencing significant price declines, with some properties losing up to 43% of their value over three years, leading to substantial financial distress for homeowners [1][2]. Price Declines in Longgang - Multiple areas in Longgang have seen average price drops, with specific properties like the Twelve Oaks Manor experiencing a 43.93% decline from 8.4 million to 4.71 million [2]. - Other notable declines include: - Poly Shangcheng Garden: -33.14% - Dongdu Garden Phase II: -24.14% - Mingju Plaza: -28.16% - Various properties in the Dawan area also reported declines exceeding 20% [2]. General Market Trends - In Shenzhen, 12 properties have seen price drops exceeding 50%, with the Ba Gua Ling dormitory experiencing the largest drop at 70.34% [4]. - The overall trend indicates a cooling market, with prices peaking around 2021 and now stabilizing at lower levels [6][11]. Market Sentiment - There is a mixed sentiment among buyers and analysts, with some suggesting that the current price drops are a necessary correction after a period of inflated values [3][8]. - The general consensus is shifting towards viewing housing as a necessity rather than an investment vehicle, reflecting a more cautious approach among potential buyers [10][11].
房价下跌后,吹牛的人也变少了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 13:24
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the real estate market in China, highlighting the shift in perception among middle-class individuals who once boasted about their wealth derived from property investments. It emphasizes that true wealth should not rely solely on a single asset like real estate, which has proven to be a debt-driven bubble [1][4][9]. Group 1: Market Changes - The real estate market has undergone significant changes over the past two years, leading to increased anxiety among previously confident middle-class individuals who now express feelings of being "harvested" by the housing market [3][4]. - The central bank's data reveals that real estate constitutes over 70% of household wealth in China, with an average housing asset value of 1.878 million yuan, creating an illusion of widespread wealth [4][7]. Group 2: Wealth Illusion - Many individuals, particularly those who entered the market during the price surge, have been living under a "wealth illusion," believing that rising property values equate to real financial security [4][7]. - The article argues that the perceived wealth from real estate is often illusory, as the low liquidity of property makes it difficult to convert assets into cash when needed, leading to significant losses during urgent sales [4][7]. Group 3: Investment Mindset - The article critiques the mindset of new middle-class individuals who equate rising property prices with financial success, warning against the dangers of investing heavily in real estate without a diversified asset strategy [5][9]. - It suggests that the current market conditions should prompt a reevaluation of investment strategies, advocating for rational asset allocation and long-term vision as the foundation for true financial stability [5][9].
房价泡沫破灭后,我们该如何面对当下的经济寒冬?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-02 01:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the dramatic decline in housing prices in Xianghe, which once thrived under the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration" plan, but fell back to the thousand-yuan range after policy changes, reflecting the fragility of county-level real estate markets reliant on external benefits [1][4] - The article discusses the historical context of China's economic response during the 2008 financial crisis, emphasizing the low leverage of the household sector as a buffer against the global downturn [3][4] - It notes that the stimulus measures, including the "four trillion" plan, led to increased household leverage through long-term mortgage loans, which initially boosted consumption and economic growth but have now revealed deeper contradictions as consumer confidence wanes [4][11] Group 2 - The current economic climate is characterized by a "cautious winter" mentality among ordinary people, leading to three survival strategies: preserving primary jobs, developing side incomes, and exercising extreme caution in large purchases [6][9] - The importance of diversifying income sources through side jobs is emphasized, as relying solely on a primary job is increasingly risky in an unstable job market [7][8] - The article warns against unnecessary large expenditures, advocating for a mindset of delayed gratification to safeguard against potential future crises [9][11]
曹德旺怒批楼市:砖头水泥不值钱!马光远反驳:会误导普通民众
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-30 10:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Fuyao Glass founder Cao Dewang is that the value of real estate is significantly overestimated, with construction costs being only 2,000 to 3,000 yuan per square meter, while prices exceed 10,000 to 20,000 yuan [1] - Cao Dewang argues that high housing prices attract excessive social capital into the real estate sector, hindering the development of the real economy due to a lack of capital inflow [1] - Independent economist Ma Guangyuan counters that dismissing real estate as merely "bricks and cement" overlooks its substantial contributions to GDP and employment, with the sector's contribution to GDP declining from nearly 30% to 22% [3][5] Group 2 - Ma Guangyuan emphasizes that the real estate sector supports over 56 related industries, providing employment for more than 50 million people, and a downturn in the market could lead to increased unemployment [3][5] - He warns that portraying housing as worthless could mislead the public, as housing demand remains rigid, and even renting incurs living costs [5] - The discussion highlights the need for a balanced approach to real estate, avoiding excessive financialization while recognizing its short-term economic contributions [9] Group 3 - Cao Dewang's perspective aligns with the idea that housing prices should reflect true value to avoid economic bubbles, citing that in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, the price-to-income ratio is as high as 40 [7] - Ma Guangyuan argues for the importance of maintaining a prosperous real estate market for GDP growth and employment, suggesting that the economy is overly reliant on real estate [7] - The urgent need is to stabilize the real estate market to allow for a gradual transition towards high-end manufacturing and high-tech industries, reducing dependency on real estate investment [9]
王健林说中了!2025年楼市变局已至,这4个信号或将超乎预料
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 02:40
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to face significant declines in 2024, with the era of continuous price increases coming to an end. The market is experiencing a systemic turning point rather than a short-term adjustment [1][3]. Market Trends - Many cities in China, including Guangzhou, are witnessing a continuous decline in real estate transaction volumes, with an oversupply of listings leading to price drops. For instance, Guangzhou has over 130,000 second-hand homes listed but very few transactions [3]. - The aging population and declining birth rates are likely to further reduce housing demand, making it difficult for prices to rise [3]. Developer Challenges - Developers are under financial strain, with some properties being sold at steep discounts, such as a 50% reduction in certain cases. This pressure is leading to unfinished projects, or "ghost buildings," which erodes buyer confidence [1][3][4]. - The prevalence of unfinished buildings is damaging the overall credibility of the real estate market, causing potential buyers to hesitate due to fears of investing in problematic properties [4]. Price-to-Income Ratio - The price-to-income ratio in many third and fourth-tier cities exceeds 15, with some even reaching 20. In first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, families may need to save for 40 years to afford a home, indicating a significant imbalance [6]. Policy Impact - Government policies aimed at curbing rapid price increases and preventing market risks include purchase restrictions, loan limits, and increased supply of affordable housing. These measures are changing market expectations and making buyers more cautious [6][9]. - The ongoing policy adjustments have shifted public perception, leading to a more rational approach to home buying, as the belief that prices will only rise has been challenged [9]. Future Outlook - The current market adjustment is not yet at its bottom, and potential buyers are advised to focus on stability and quality of living rather than speculative investments. Those holding multiple properties should consider selling to avoid future losses [9].