发布时间：2026-02-26 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《企业利润被动收缩趋势持续，投资 止跌企稳仍需政策呵护》 - 2026.02.02 宏观研究 春节假期宏观大事分析 核心观点 （1）2026 年春节假期是近年来最长假期，通过跟踪春假假期数 据可知，近年春假长假居民出行需求旺盛，"反向团圆"成为新亮点； 全国文旅市场景气度上升，2026 年春节假期，全国国内旅游市场迎来 历史性爆发，值得注意的是，部分省市文旅市场呈现"量增价弱"现 象；在消费方面，商品消费品质升级，服务消费多元发展，体验型消 费成为主流；电影票房承压，触及近五年低点，且量价齐跌，供需错 配或是主要原因。 （2）美国关税政策再起波澜，美国最高法院裁决对等关税和芬 太尼关税违宪，但特朗普援引 122 条款新增 10%关税，后将关税税率 升至 15%，反映美国特朗普政府主导全球贸易秩序的底层逻辑并未发 生变化。 仅从当 ...

Core Insights - The report predicts that the old-caliber M1 year-on-year growth will decline from 6.2% in September to approximately 3.4% by the end of the year, while M2 is expected to decrease from 8.4% in September to around 8.0% by year-end [1][10] - The analysis framework for M1 and M2 growth is based on the formula: old-caliber M1 = M2 - other currencies, where M2 is derived from various leverage factors across different sectors [4][14] M1 and M2 Growth Analysis - The report outlines five key factors influencing M2 growth: corporate leverage, household leverage, foreign exchange derivation, government leverage, and other factors, with a projected M2 year-on-year decline of 900 billion [6][20] - The anticipated decline in M1 growth is attributed to a combination of factors, including a decrease in corporate loans by 300 billion and a reduction in household deposits by 6200 billion [7][33] - Historical data indicates that changes in M1 correlate with shifts in PPI and industrial inventory levels, suggesting that M1 serves as a leading indicator for these economic metrics [2][13] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of M1 and M2 in relation to asset allocation, highlighting that M1's growth is closely tied to the performance of equity markets and corporate profitability [9][33] - The analysis suggests that a stable equity market environment could lead to a shift in household deposits towards investment assets, thereby impacting M1 growth positively [34][40] Future Projections - The report forecasts that M1 growth will be approximately 2.3 trillion, with M2 growth around 25 trillion, reflecting a broader economic context where monetary policy and market conditions play crucial roles [51][53] - The anticipated government bond issuance is expected to decrease, which may further influence M2 growth dynamics in the upcoming quarters [27][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the dramatic decline in housing prices in Xianghe, which once thrived under the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration" plan, but fell back to the thousand-yuan range after policy changes, reflecting the fragility of county-level real estate markets reliant on external benefits [1][4] - The article discusses the historical context of China's economic response during the 2008 financial crisis, emphasizing the low leverage of the household sector as a buffer against the global downturn [3][4] - It notes that the stimulus measures, including the "four trillion" plan, led to increased household leverage through long-term mortgage loans, which initially boosted consumption and economic growth but have now revealed deeper contradictions as consumer confidence wanes [4][11] Group 2 - The current economic climate is characterized by a "cautious winter" mentality among ordinary people, leading to three survival strategies: preserving primary jobs, developing side incomes, and exercising extreme caution in large purchases [6][9] - The importance of diversifying income sources through side jobs is emphasized, as relying solely on a primary job is increasingly risky in an unstable job market [7][8] - The article warns against unnecessary large expenditures, advocating for a mindset of delayed gratification to safeguard against potential future crises [9][11]