Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the coke industry is a wide - range, sideways movement, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy guidance. Currently, the combined inventory of coking coal and coke continues to rise, in a seasonal inventory - building phase, with overall weak supply - demand. Downstream steel mills' hot metal production is relatively stable, restocking as needed. Real - estate investment growth rate decline continues to expand, and medium - to - long - term demand continues to decline. The macro environment is generally positive, with domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts implemented and fiscal policies continuing to be proactive, and there are still expectations for future policies. Overall, the market is expected to be in a wide - range sideways movement [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Coke Inventory - As of January 16, independent coke - making enterprises' inventory dropped 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons. Steel mills' inventory increased to 650.33 tons, and port inventory rose 6.41% to 265.07 tons. The combined coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a seven - month high, and was more than 2% lower year - on - year [1] 2. Coke Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is - 53 yuan/ton, and also - 7 yuan/ton. The average profit of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 105 yuan/ton, and that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is - 12 yuan/ton [1] 3. Downstream Demand - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, 1.66 percentage points higher than the previous year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 85.48%. The daily average hot - metal output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, 3.53 tons higher than the previous year [1] 4. Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory of coal mines dropped 7.66%, while that of independent coke - making enterprises increased 5.71% to 1132.85 tons. Steel mills' coking coal inventory slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and the port's imported coking coal inventory continued to rise. The combined coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, lower than the same period in previous years [2] 5. News - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that the overall expenditure level "only increases" and the guarantee for key areas "only strengthens". Five departments including the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to implement a loan interest - subsidy policy for small, medium, and micro enterprises. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that efforts will be made to stabilize the real - estate market this year and support reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, Treasury bond spot yields increased collectively. The 1 - 7Y maturity yields rose by about 0.25 - 0.75bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields increased by about 0.65bp and 0.10bp to 1.84% and 2.26% respectively. Treasury bond futures weakened slightly, with the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.02%, 0.04%, 0.05%, and 0.07% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.51%. [4] - In 2025 Q4, China's GDP grew by 4.5% year - on - year, and the annual GDP growth rate reached 5.0%, achieving the expected growth target. In December, industrial added value was higher than market expectations, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and social retail sales were lower than the previous value. December's financial data exceeded expectations, but the growth rate of social financing continued to decline, mainly dragged down by government bonds. Credit increased slightly less than expected, with marginal improvement in medium - and long - term corporate financing demand, but the trend of household deleveraging continued, and credit performance remained weak. In December, China's import and export scale hit a monthly high, with annual exports growing by 6.1% and the structure continuously optimizing, especially high - tech product exports growing by 13.2%. [4] - Overseas, concerns about the US labor market eased. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week dropped to a recent low, dashing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in January. [4] - As some negative factors eased, bond market sentiment has recovered. The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading cooled the equity market, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. In 2025, China's economy maintained a stable and progressive growth trend, but there were still structural contradictions. With the stabilization of the RMB exchange rate and bank net interest margins and the weakening of internal and external constraints, the central bank indicated that there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The issuance of interest - bearing bonds in January was stable, alleviating market concerns about long - term bond supply pressure. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Price and Volume**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts decreased by 0.05%, 0.04%, 0.02%, and 0.07% respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, and TL main contracts decreased by 26,132, 5,611, and 38,868 respectively, while the trading volume of TS main contract increased by 930. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2603 - 2606 spread decreased by 0.01, the T2603 - 2606 spread increased by 0.02, etc. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The T main contract's open interest increased by 1,012, the TF and TS main contracts' open interest decreased by 250 and 398 respectively, and the TL main contract's open interest decreased by 120. The net short positions of T and TF top 20 increased by 2,574 and 193 respectively, while the net short positions of TS and TL top 20 decreased by 181 and 1,179 respectively. [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bond Data - **CTD Net Price**: The net prices of most CTD bonds decreased, except for 240022.IB (2y) which increased by 0.0090. [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1y and 3y active bonds increased by 7.75bp and 0.25bp respectively, the 5y yield remained unchanged, and the 7y and 10y yields decreased by 0.65bp and 0.20bp respectively. [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates increased, such as the overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 7.01bp, and the Shibor overnight rate increased by 9.10bp. The Shibor 14 - day rate decreased by 0.70bp. [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operation - The issuance scale of open - market reverse repurchase was 210.2 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 179.3 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase. The net investment was 30.9 billion yuan. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that this year, the focus in urban renewal is to promote the renovation of old urban residential areas, the construction of complete communities, and the renovation of small public spaces in cities. The government will also stabilize the real estate market by implementing the project company system in real - estate development, the lead - bank system in real - estate financing, and the spot - sale system in commercial housing sales. [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment update funds in 2026 has been allocated, supporting about 4,500 projects in multiple fields and driving a total investment of over 460 billion yuan. [3] - The Trump administration and NATO reached a "framework agreement" on Greenland. Denmark will transfer the sovereignty of a small piece of land on Greenland to the US for military base construction. US President Trump said that based on the meeting with NATO Secretary - General Mark Rutte, they reached an agreement on the future cooperation framework for Greenland and the entire Arctic region, and he will not implement the tariff measures originally scheduled to take effect on February 1. [3] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - At 20:30 on January 22, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of the December 2025 monetary policy meeting. At 21:30 on January 22, the US will release the November 2025 PCE price index. [4]