一直以来，曹德旺在国内具有较强的影响力，这不仅因为曹德旺是企业家、慈善家，更是曹德旺曾经对房地产市场的趋势发表过一些看法。当时很多人对此 嗤之以鼻，没把他的讲话当回事。而这些言论后来却被证实具有较强的前瞻性。自此之后，曹德旺的每次讲话，都会引起不少人的高度关注，大家将他的预 测视为投资的方向和决策的参考。 近期，网上有的人说，曹德旺预言要成真？若不出意外，2026年房地产将面临5大转折。那么，曹德旺究竟有没有做出过这样的预言呢？为此，我们对全网 进行查验，可以判定这是虚假的信息。曹德旺近期并没有发表过此类讲话。不过，先抛开曹德旺的预言不谈，单从当前楼市现实情况出发，来聊一聊2026年 房地产将面临5大转折： 转折一：从投资炒房，转向回归居住属性 一直以来，国内房地产市场都是投资市场，很多人只要手里一有钱，就投资买房，希望房价上涨能带来更多的财富。而现如今，我国高层多次强调："房子 是用来住人的、不是用来炒的"。再加上各地房价已经连续跌了4年，已经失去了投资价值。预计在进入到2026年之后，国内房地产市场将从之前的投资炒房 为主，逐步转向居住属性为主。最终房价会与当地居住收入挂钩。 转折二：由中小城市房价领跌， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market in China and identifies four major turning points expected by 2026, despite false claims attributed to Jack Ma regarding predictions for the real estate sector [3][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market in China has been declining since 2022, with significant price drops in second and third-tier cities, while first-tier cities have shown relative price stability [5]. - By 2026, it is anticipated that first-tier cities will experience a price correction, with previously declining second and third-tier cities seeing a slowdown in price drops [5]. - The price-to-income ratio in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen has reached 40, indicating a significant housing bubble that necessitates a price correction [5]. Group 2: Shifts in Buyer Behavior - The demand for housing is shifting from speculative investment to genuine housing needs, as the investment value of real estate diminishes due to continuous price declines [7]. - The proportion of real estate in household assets is currently at 77%, but this is expected to decrease as residents diversify their investments into stocks, bonds, and other financial assets [11]. Group 3: Development Focus - The real estate sector is transitioning from a "rough development phase" to a focus on building quality homes, driven by policy changes encouraging developers to improve construction standards [9]. - The emphasis will shift towards better design, quality, and amenities in residential properties as the market matures [9]. Group 4: Asset Diversification - Over the past two decades, real estate has been the primary asset class for Chinese households, but the trend is shifting towards a more diversified asset allocation as the housing market loses its appeal [11]. - This diversification is expected to continue into 2026, reflecting a broader trend in wealth management among Chinese residents [11].

Core Insights - The real estate market is at a turning point, with significant changes in price trends and buyer sentiment since 2021, leading to a decline in property values and increased uncertainty about future investments [1][11]. Market Trends - From 2010 to 2020, property prices generally increased by 5% to 10% annually, with some cities experiencing rises of up to 20% [1]. - In 2024, national real estate sales area is projected to decline by approximately 30% year-on-year, with average price indices dropping by 3% to 5%, and some second and third-tier cities seeing declines exceeding 10% [3]. Factors Influencing the Market - Population changes, including slower growth and outflow in certain cities, are reducing demand for real estate [3]. - Changes in family structure and economic growth rates are also impacting housing demand, alongside stricter government regulations on the real estate market [3]. Regional Price Variations - A property priced at 1.2 million yuan varies significantly in size and quality depending on the city: in first-tier cities, it may only buy a small apartment, while in third-tier cities, it could purchase a larger unit [4][5]. Investment Outlook - First-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai show strong value retention, with potential declines limited to around 10% [5]. - Second-tier cities with population inflows may maintain value, while those with outflows could see prices drop below 1 million yuan [5]. - Third-tier cities face the greatest risk of depreciation, with values potentially falling to 800,000 yuan or lower [5]. Policy and Economic Implications - The shift in government policy aims to transition real estate from an investment vehicle to a consumer product, affecting the market's investment appeal [6][10]. - The rental market is becoming more significant, with rental yields often lower than bank deposit rates, leading to a reevaluation of property as an investment [9]. Long-term Value Expectations - A reasonable expectation for a 1.2 million yuan property in five years is to retain its value or decrease by 10% to 20%, influenced by location, city development, and policy changes [10][12]. - The perception of real estate is shifting, with many viewing it less as an investment and more as a necessity for living, reflecting a broader market sentiment change [11].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with declining prices and sales, driven by demographic changes, oversupply, and economic pressures [1][4][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - Housing prices have seen a drastic decline, with some properties in major cities dropping from peak prices of 90,000 yuan per square meter in 2019 to around 60,000 yuan [3]. - The national sales area of new residential properties is projected to decrease by 14.3% in 2024, equating to a loss of nearly 3 trillion yuan in sales revenue [4]. - The average price of second-hand homes across 100 cities has been falling for over 30 consecutive months, indicating a major shift in the real estate market [4]. Group 2: Demographic Factors - China's population has begun to decline, with a reduction of 850,000 in 2022 and an estimated 2.08 million in 2023, leading to decreased housing demand [6][7]. - The aging population is increasing, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above, which is expected to rise to around 400 million in the next five years, further reducing the demand for new housing [7][13]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a significant oversupply of housing, with over 75 million square meters of unsold properties expected by the end of 2024, and around 70 million vacant homes currently [9]. - The real estate market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, particularly in smaller cities where many properties remain unsold for extended periods [9]. Group 4: Economic Influences - The global economic slowdown post-pandemic, along with international conflicts and rising costs, has led to decreased consumer confidence and spending, negatively impacting the housing market [11]. - The financial struggles of developers are evident, with many large firms facing significant debt repayments, forcing them to lower prices to generate cash flow [14]. Group 5: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory changes, such as the implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations, may increase costs for property owners, potentially leading to more properties being sold in a saturated market [15].

Core Insights - The U.S. housing market is experiencing a slowdown in price growth, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showing a year-over-year increase of 1.9% in June, the lowest growth rate since summer 2023, down from 2.3% in May [1] - The data reflects the weakest spring home-buying season in 13 years, driven by high home prices and mortgage rates that have suppressed demand, forcing sellers in many areas to offer discounts and incentives to attract buyers [1] - Nicholas Goldke, head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, noted that the June data continues to indicate a decisive turning point in the real estate market [1] Price Trends - Despite the seemingly modest 1.9% annual growth rate, home prices had previously declined in the first half of the year, with a recent 2.5% rebound over the last six months offsetting earlier losses, suggesting a potential market turning point in early 2025 [1] - New York leads the 20-city index with a 7% year-over-year increase, followed by Chicago at 6.1% and Cleveland at 4.5% [1] - In contrast, cities that were popular during the pandemic, such as Phoenix, Tampa, and Dallas, are facing continued pressure on home prices, with Tampa experiencing the largest decline at 2.4% year-over-year [1] Market Dynamics - The backlog of housing inventory in certain regions has compelled sellers to use discounts and incentives to attract buyers, which has contributed to the nationwide slowdown in price growth [1] - Competitive conditions remain intense in hotspot areas like New York, despite the overall national trend of declining price growth [1]