Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of China's top 100 real estate companies in terms of sales and market trends for the first nine months of 2025, indicating a mixed recovery in the housing market despite historical low levels of sales [16][18]. Sales Performance - In September 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 252.78 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month increase of 22.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [3][18]. - Cumulatively, from January to September 2025, the total sales amount reached 2,323.66 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%, although the decline has narrowed by 1.3 percentage points [18]. Market Trends - The new housing market saw a steady recovery in September 2025, with supply increasing by 55% month-on-month, reaching the second-highest level of the year. New home transactions rose by 18% month-on-month but fell by 5% year-on-year [16][29]. - In the first nine months, 30 monitored cities recorded a total transaction area of 88.33 million square meters, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 3% [3][29]. Company Rankings - The top three companies by sales turnover in September 2025 were Poly Developments (185.6 billion yuan), Greentown China (178.5 billion yuan), and China Overseas Land & Investment (162.4 billion yuan) [2][3]. - The sales threshold for the top 10 companies decreased by 2.3% year-on-year to 62.52 billion yuan, indicating a lower entry barrier compared to the previous year [20]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that new home transaction volumes may continue to hover at low levels in October 2025, with potential further increases in year-on-year declines due to high base effects from the previous year [30]. - The market is expected to experience continued differentiation among cities and projects, with core first- and second-tier cities maintaining higher transaction volumes due to stronger purchasing power [30].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview: China Property Market Key Points on Sales Performance - Top 100 developers' contract sales declined by 19% YoY in August 2025, an improvement from a 25% decline in July 2025 [2] - On a MoM basis, contract sales decreased by 4%, consistent with historical levels from 2020 to 2024 [2] - Cumulative sales for the top 100 developers in the first eight months of 2025 fell by 14% YoY, slightly worse than the 13% decline recorded in July 2025 [2] - Inventory sell-through rates are under pressure, with inventory months in tier-1 cities rising to 21 months and 29 months in 80 major cities as of July [2] Market Dynamics - Recent easing of home purchase restrictions in tier-1 cities had limited impact on sales [2] - Upgrade demand and the luxury market remain resilient, exemplified by Poly Property's Shenzhen Zhenyu project achieving Rmb2.3 billion in sales on its first day with a 96% sell-through rate [2] - SOE developers outperformed the top 100 developers, with a 10% YoY decline in contract sales compared to the 19% decline for the top 100 [4] Secondary Listing Trends - Secondary listings in 50 cities increased by 8.9% YoY and 9.9% YTD, while tier-1 cities saw a 3.6% YoY and 5.3% YTD increase [3][9] - The strong secondary listing volume is attributed to upgrade demand, weakening price expectations, and declining rental prices [3] Developer Performance - Among SOE developers, Poly Property reported a 127% growth in contract sales, primarily due to a new project launch in Shenzhen [4] - SOE developers' market share increased by 7 percentage points to 57%, while POE developers' share decreased to 31% [4] Sales Data Insights - The combined attributable contract sales value for the top 100 developers dropped by 22% YoY in August, compared to a 26% decline in July [12] - The gross contract sales GFA for the top 100 developers fell by 32% YoY in August, versus a 25% decline in July [13] Risks and Opportunities - Key downside risks include government policies restricting demand and mortgage lending, tight financing for developers, and lower-than-expected residential growth [32] - Upside risks involve potential policy loosening that could boost residential property sales and prices [32] Additional Observations - The overall market remains weak, with significant pressure on inventory and sales performance across various developer categories [2][4] - The luxury segment shows resilience, indicating a potential bifurcation in market performance between high-end and lower-tier properties [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the China property market, highlighting both challenges and areas of resilience within the sector.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the real estate sector, highlighting a policy easing in first-tier cities and low fluctuations in new home transactions [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the new home transaction volume remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 16% in the 35th week, while second-hand home transactions have increased by 13% [30][31]. - It notes that effective policies are crucial for market stability, particularly through broad fiscal measures and urban village renovations [38]. Industry Overview - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.62 billion [3]. - The sector's absolute performance over the last 12 months is reported at 32.1%, while its relative performance is down by 4.1% [4]. Policy Developments - Recent policy changes include increased housing provident fund loan limits in Shanghai, aimed at supporting homebuyers [19][20]. - Nanyang has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, including 20 initiatives to lower purchasing costs and support financing [22]. Sales Performance - In the 35th week, the total transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 204 million square meters, with a daily average of 29.2 million square meters, reflecting a 38% increase from the previous week but a 16% decrease year-on-year [25][29]. - The report indicates that first-tier cities experienced a significant year-on-year decline in new home transactions, with Beijing and Shanghai seeing decreases of 39% and 31%, respectively [27]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments reported a total revenue of 116.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.08%, while China Jinmao's revenue increased by 13.34% to 25.11 billion [23][24]. - China Overseas Development reported a revenue of 83.22 billion, down 4.55% year-on-year, while China Resources Land's revenue grew by 19.39% to 94.92 billion [24][23]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product moats and stable rental income from quality commercial real estate [38]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring second-hand home prices as indicators for market recovery, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies like Greentown China and China Resources Land [38].