ab 1 September 2025 Global Research First Read China Property Top 100 developers' sales decline narrowed in August Sales decline narrowed in August Top 100 developers' contract sales declined by 19% YoY in August 2025, narrowing from 25% in July2025. On a sequential basis, top 100 developers' contract sales declined by 4% MoM, similar to historical MoM level between 2020 and 2024. The sales decline is in line with feedback we've received from developers, ie physical market remain weak. We think the recent e ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the real estate sector, highlighting a policy easing in first-tier cities and low fluctuations in new home transactions [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the new home transaction volume remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 16% in the 35th week, while second-hand home transactions have increased by 13% [30][31]. - It notes that effective policies are crucial for market stability, particularly through broad fiscal measures and urban village renovations [38]. Industry Overview - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.62 billion [3]. - The sector's absolute performance over the last 12 months is reported at 32.1%, while its relative performance is down by 4.1% [4]. Policy Developments - Recent policy changes include increased housing provident fund loan limits in Shanghai, aimed at supporting homebuyers [19][20]. - Nanyang has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, including 20 initiatives to lower purchasing costs and support financing [22]. Sales Performance - In the 35th week, the total transaction area for new homes in 20 cities was 204 million square meters, with a daily average of 29.2 million square meters, reflecting a 38% increase from the previous week but a 16% decrease year-on-year [25][29]. - The report indicates that first-tier cities experienced a significant year-on-year decline in new home transactions, with Beijing and Shanghai seeing decreases of 39% and 31%, respectively [27]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments reported a total revenue of 116.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.08%, while China Jinmao's revenue increased by 13.34% to 25.11 billion [23][24]. - China Overseas Development reported a revenue of 83.22 billion, down 4.55% year-on-year, while China Resources Land's revenue grew by 19.39% to 94.92 billion [24][23]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product moats and stable rental income from quality commercial real estate [38]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring second-hand home prices as indicators for market recovery, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies like Greentown China and China Resources Land [38].