智通财经APP获悉，华源证券发布研报称，今年1月以来，上海、深圳等核心城市二手房成交普遍回 暖，供需关系迎来边际改善。结合全球房地产周期调整经验，该行认为，我国本轮房地产调整在时间与 空间上或已相对充分，在行业基本面经历深度出清、政策托底信号持续强化的背景下，房地产板块的整 体胜率有望逐步抬升。 华源证券主要观点如下： 限购、公积金、房产税三端优化 2月25日，上海发布楼市新政，核心调整如下：1）限购：非沪籍外环内购房社保/个税年限由3年降至1 年，社保/个税满3年在外环内可增购1套；持居住证满5年可在全市范围内限购1套。2）公积金：缴存人 家庭的首套住房公积金贷款最高贷款额度从160万提升至240万，叠加多子女家庭和购买绿色建筑最高贷 款额度上浮政策后可达324万，二套住房的最高贷款额度亦相应提升；公积金贷款认定标准优化（无房 或拥有一套房且结清公积金贷款可再贷）。3）房产税：沪籍居民家庭中的子女成年后，购买住房属于 成年子女家庭唯一住房的，暂免征收个人住房房产税。 稳定市场意图明确 2026年初官媒密集释放积极信号，开年首期《求是》杂志发文提及"房地产带有显著的金融资产属 性"、"政策要一次性给足"等突破 ...

过去很长一段时间，房价上涨几乎成了一种"共识"，无论是一线还是三四线，只要城市还在发展，只要 人口还在流动，房价就被默认会往上走。 很多人到现在还在问一个问题：房价已经跌了这么久，接下来到底是反弹，还是继续往下？ 五六年前，李嘉诚说房地产将迎来一轮大调整，当时被不少人当成"过度保守"；可到了2026年再回头 看，这句话不仅没有过时，反而在逐渐应验。 楼市为什么会走到今天 如果把中国房地产，这二十多年的走势画成一条曲线，它一定不是平滑上升，而是一段长时间加速攀升 后，突然进入的急刹阶段。 正是在这种共识下，买房逐渐从改善居住，变成了一场全民参与的资产配置。 房价之所以能长期上涨，背后依赖的是三股力量的叠加：人口持续流入、城镇化快速推进，以及金融环 境的宽松。 当这三者同时向前推，房价自然水涨船高；但任何一个变量出现变化，结果都会完全不同。 过去几年，这些变化几乎是同时发生的。 人口结构开始转向，出生率下降，很多城市的人口净流入明显放缓，甚至转为流出。 城镇化速度不再像早期那样迅猛，新增住房需求逐年下降；而在金融层面，居民部门的杠杆已经被拉到 一个相当高的位置，再往上加，风险开始显性化。 这时候房地产行业，本身的 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since 2024, the number of new bond - issuing industrial entities has significantly increased under the strict supervision of urban investment bonds. The new industrial entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, are mainly concentrated in low - to - middle administrative levels, with over half of them having an AA+ rating and mostly located in economically developed provinces. The marginal supply increment of industrial bonds brought by these new entities is difficult to substantially alleviate the shortage of credit bond assets [1][2]. - Newly - issued bonds of new industrial entities often have an excess spread at the initial listing stage due to liquidity and market cognitive differences, and the excess spread tends to narrow to varying degrees after listing. It is recommended to select bonds from industries with relatively good prosperity (such as social services) and focus on bonds issued by urban investment subsidiaries [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Newly - Issued Bond Industrial Entities Inventory - **Quantity change**: Since the second half of 2023, under the strict supervision of urban investment bonds, the number of new bond - issuing industrial entities has increased. In 2024, there were 133 new industrial bond - issuing entities, and from January 1 to August 26, 2025, 191 industrial entities entered the capital market for bond financing. The number of new industrial bond - issuing entities from January to July 2025 showed a fluctuating upward trend, with 41 entities in July alone [1][4]. - **Administrative level**: Among the 191 new industrial bond - issuing entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, 63 were district - level state - owned enterprises and 62 were prefecture - level state - owned enterprises, showing a concentration in low - to - middle administrative levels. The 63 new district - level industrial entities were mostly concentrated in economically developed provinces such as Shandong, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [8]. - **Subject rating**: Among the new industrial bond - issuing entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, 103 had an AA+ rating, accounting for 54%, followed by 52 with an AA rating and 31 with an AAA rating, mainly medium - and low - credit - rated entities [8]. - **Industry distribution**: The top five industries with the largest number of new industrial bond - issuing entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, were comprehensive (47), social services (31), building decoration (24), non - bank finance (18), and real estate (10) [13]. - **Regional distribution**: New industrial bond - issuing entities were mostly concentrated in economically developed provinces such as Shandong (30), Jiangsu (24), Guangdong (17), and Zhejiang (17) [13]. - **Asset scale**: Most of the industrial entities that first appeared in the bond market in 2025 were small - scale. Among the 191 new industrial bond - issuing entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, 47% had a total asset scale of less than 100 million yuan, and 49% had a net asset scale of less than 50 million yuan. Among the 81 industrial entities with a total asset scale of less than 100 million yuan, 32 were subsidiaries of urban investment companies [17]. - **Bond issuance scale and use of funds**: The total issuance scale of bonds issued by new industrial entities from January 1 to August 26, 2025, was 13.78 billion yuan, mainly private placement corporate bonds. The funds were mainly used to repay interest - bearing debts (8.08 billion yuan, accounting for 59%), and some were used for project construction, supplementary working capital, and other purposes [20]. - **Ways for urban investment entities to increase bond quotas**: Bond - financing - restricted urban investment entities usually use subsidiaries as issuers to try to increase bond quotas, mainly by injecting assets into existing subsidiaries or stripping urban investment - related businesses. The former is the preferred method, but the single - bond quota of urban investment subsidiaries is usually small [23]. 3.2 How to Evaluate the Investment Value of New Industrial Entities - **Value discovery process**: In the first five trading days after the listing of bonds issued by new industrial entities, the excess spread fluctuated little and showed no obvious trend. As time passed, the market's perception of new industrial entities gradually converged, and the liquidity premium and risk premium at the initial listing stage mostly narrowed significantly [3][26]. - **Overview of major industries of new industrial entities**: - **Building industry**: The industry is currently in a state of low prosperity. In 2024, the construction and completion areas decreased year - on - year. In July 2025, the PMI and its sub - indicators were at a low level. Although the "anti - involution" initiative was put forward, it is difficult to significantly boost the bargaining power of construction enterprises in the short term, and the subsequent marginal improvement needs attention [30][31]. - **Social services**: The number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue have been continuously rising. The main business of social service issuers is mainly related to tourism. With the improvement of the modern tourism system, tourism will play a more prominent role in promoting economic development [35]. - **Real estate**: Housing prices and investment are at a low level. In July 2025, the prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased year - on - year, and real estate development investment also declined. Policy support may be the key variable for the real estate market [37]. 3.3 Investment Recommendations - Focus on new bond - issuing industrial entities in the future, as they often have an excess spread at the initial listing stage, which tends to narrow over time. - Select bonds from industries with relatively good prosperity, such as social services. - Pay attention to bonds issued by urban investment subsidiaries, as their credit risks are relatively controllable [39].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that real estate stocks in China have seen significant gains, with notable increases in companies such as Jianfa International Group (up 5.24%), China Jinmao (up 4.17%), and others, driven by policy optimizations in major cities since July [1] - Key cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, and Dalian have improved housing fund loan policies, including increasing loan amounts, optimizing withdrawals, and extending repayment periods [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 suggested that future policies in the real estate sector will focus on stabilizing the market, with potential initiatives including "urban renewal" and the renovation of dilapidated urban villages [1] Group 2 - Some market investors are optimistic about the potential for short-term real estate stimulus policies, although the recent Political Bureau meeting did not directly address these policies, leading to a more pessimistic outlook for the industry [2] - The industry is transitioning from a focus on short-term stimulus to exploring new development models, which aligns with the current industry logic amid decreasing risks [2] - The overall assessment of the real estate sector is that it is in a bottoming phase, with decreasing risk-free interest rates and improved risk evaluations contributing to rising market sentiment and stock price opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that real estate stocks have seen significant gains, with notable increases in companies such as Jianfa International Group (up 5.24%), China Jinmao (up 4.17%), and others, driven by policy optimizations in major cities since July [1] - Key cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, and Dalian have improved housing fund loan policies, including increasing loan amounts, optimizing withdrawals, and extending repayment periods [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 suggested that future policies in the real estate sector will focus on stabilizing the market, with potential demands for urban renewal and the renovation of old urban villages [1] Group 2 - Eastern Securities noted that some investors are optimistic about short-term real estate stimulus policies, but the recent Political Bureau meeting did not directly address these policies, leading to a pessimistic outlook for the industry [2] - The industry is transitioning from short-term stimulus expectations to exploring new development models, which aligns with the current industry logic [2] - The overall assessment of the real estate sector is that it is in a bottoming phase, with decreasing risk-free interest rates and improved risk evaluations contributing to rising market risk appetite and stock price opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that real estate stocks in China have seen significant gains, with notable increases in companies such as Jianfa International Group (up 5.24%) and China Jinmao (up 4.17%) as of the latest report [1] - Key cities have been optimizing real estate policies since July, including adjustments to public housing loan policies in cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, Nanjing, and Dalian [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 suggested that future policy measures in the real estate sector will focus on stabilizing the market, with potential demand from urban renewal and renovation of old urban villages [1] Group 2 - Some market investors are optimistic about the potential for short-term real estate stimulus policies, although the recent Political Bureau meeting did not directly address these policies, leading to a more pessimistic outlook for the industry [2] - The industry is viewed as being in a bottoming phase, with a decrease in risk-free interest rates and a recovery in risk assessment for the real estate sector, which may lead to upward price movements in real estate stocks [2]