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再过5年,180万的房产大概值多少钱?孙宏斌与王健林早就给出答案
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 02:35
5年后180万的房子还值多少钱?中介道出三类房产千万别碰,有人已血亏50%! 记得我们小区的张大爷吗?2003年那会儿,他花了30万在市区老街区买了套二手房,亲戚们都笑他傻,说那破 地方能有什么发展。结果地铁一修,商场学校一建,到2015年卖房时净赚200万,成了小区的"买房大神"。 但这种好日子早就一去不复返了。现在你走到任何一家中介门店,都能看到冷清的场面。销售员们无所事事地 玩着手机,一见有人经过就赶紧上前搭话,拼命推荐降价房源。 一、楼市的黄金时代已经彻底翻篇 二手房网站上,"业主急售"、"低于市场价20万"这样的标签随处可见。有的房源挂牌大半年,价格一降再降, 还是无人问津。这一切都在告诉我们:楼市的黄金时代,已经彻底结束了。 过去十年的房地产市场,简直就是一台疯狂的造富机器。从2008年北京奥运会前后开始,房价就像坐上了火 箭,一个劲地往上窜。2015年到2017年那会儿,是最疯狂的时候,全国各地都能看到连夜排队买房的景象。 可现在呢?楼下的中介门店冷清得门可罗雀,销售们闲着玩手机,"降价急售"的牌子挂得满街都是。我同事小 李2018年在远郊新区买的房,现在跌得惨不忍睹,想卖都卖不掉,每月还在还房 ...
楼市下行,不止这么几年
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 17:03
很直接,不过理由也很实际: 当下7.87亿平的新房库存需要多少级别的资金才能消化掉?银行的信贷坏账目前是什么规模? 我记得黄奇帆2025年初说楼市收储至少需要6万亿,但当下,我们好像只拿出了1万亿左右。 昨天做了个看贝壳房价成交价的小工具,发现我之前关注的小区的房价已经从2021年的9万降低到了现 在的6.8万。 这还是在小区附近2024年新修了地铁的情况下降低的。这样看来,楼市确实不算乐观。 大家好,我是孙少睡,这是我的第410篇楼市时评。 现在大家讨论房价,已经懒得再讲理由了。以前还会提经济、供需关系、库存等等,到现在说到房价基 本就是纯喊口号。 一句"房价还得跌"走天下,到哪都是这一句,别人不信也懒得解释。 这倒也不是自嗨,有个佐证是,某国外机构把预测的楼市触底时间从2025年二季度直接改成了2026年 底。 为啥迟迟不肯给楼市来个大的呢?一方面是没什么救市欲望,一方面也是真没钱了。 2024年,地方卖地收入大约是8.5万亿,比2022年减少了4万亿。很多二线城市土地流拍超过40%。 都这种情况了,还指望什么万亿级别的收储吗?原因只有一个,是真的没钱。 上海的家电补贴前段时间发公告,说以后要变成摇号的; ...
北京码农进入买房冷静期
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-05 02:47
北京最大的码农聚集居住区——昌平南部板块,最近新盘卖房速度快速下降。 6月30日,开盘前期望值很高的中海未来之境一口气拿了6栋楼、342套房的预售证,两个月过去,去化率只有23.7%,成交价格也是擦着底部。 | 期房签约统计 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 用途 | 已签约套数 | 已签约面积(M2) | 成交均价(¥/M2) | | 住宅 | 81 | 9018.18 | 61738.04 | 数据来源:北京市住建委,时间截至9月2日 取证更早的越秀星耀未来,第一期930套房源预售至今整整5个月,去化率只有17.5%。 | 销售楼号 | 批准销售 套 数 | 批准销售 商想(m4) | 销售状态 | 住宅拟售 价格(元/m²) | 楼盘表 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5-1#住宅楼 | 48 | 4413.89 | 2025/8/1 0:00:00开盘 | 66710.57 | 查看信息 | | 5-10#住宅楼 | 64 | 6557.00 | 正在预售 | 63806.37 | 查看信息 | | 5-11#住 ...
楼市牛市强势来袭,买房者迎来最佳时机,投资回报潜力巨大
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 10:42
2025年的夏天,本应泾渭分明的楼市与股市,却意外地交汇碰撞,激荡起令人不安的复杂情绪。压抑、 沸腾、四散,空气中弥漫着刺鼻的焦灼,预示着一场风暴的来临,没有人敢言全身而退。 彼时,韩国股市年内涨幅已超30%,日经225指数更是突破了1989年的历史高点。全球资金流动加速, 贸易局势的缓和与美联储降息的预期,更助长了资金的冒险精神。外资7月净流入韩国股市超过30亿美 元,将中国市场视为第二大海外投资标的。国内方面,7月非银存款同比多增1.39万亿,居民存款开 始"搬家"。种种迹象表明,牛市的氛围日渐浓厚。 沪深两市在8月气势如虹,成交量连续突破2万亿大关。权重股一路高歌猛进,媒体和朋友圈充斥着"牛 市归来"的欢呼。然而,狂欢的背后,并非人人都能分享盛宴。不少投资者手中的股票纹丝不动,甚至 不涨反跌,委屈、焦虑、无奈写在他们的脸上。 数据显示,过去一年,6256只权益类基金(包括股票型、混合型)平均收益率高达34.06%,近乎99%的 产品实现盈利,一片欣欣向荣。然而,深入审视却发现,2021年买入的新基金中,仍有158只累计跌幅 超过30%。有人收益翻倍,有人却仍在原地挣扎。市场热情高涨,躁动不安的情绪也在暗 ...
PVC月报:社会库存持续累库,反弹偏空-20250801
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 10:25
PVC月报: 社会库存持续累库,反弹偏空 | 能源化工团队 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郭建锋 | | F03126846 | | | 何 | 慧 | Z0011420 | | | 郭艳鹏 | | Z0021323 | | | 李 | 倩 | F03134406 | 时间:2025/7/31 | 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 基本面持续累库,反弹偏空 【下月展望】 6月底以来社会库存累库拐点显现,且近期累库速度加快,基本面弱势格局难改。展望8月, 根据季节性特征,社会库存通常在二至四季度处于去库周期,但今年属于PVC扩产大年,预计 延续7月累库格局。一方面,今年计划投产250万吨新产能(同比+9%),扩产速度创十年新高, 年内已兑现170万吨,耀望及海湾合计50万吨计划8-9月兑现。此外,8月仅内蒙君正、新中贾 等装置存检修计划,由于前期反内卷刺激,氯碱综合利润已经修复至同期中性偏高位置,企 业超预期检修概率不大,存量及增量装置均承压运行,供给充沛。另一方面,1-6月表观消费 量累计同比-3%,年中政治局会议首次未提楼市,地产销售面 ...
数据非常糟糕,这一轮楼市的下行,到底结束了没?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 19:08
Core Insights - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is cautious, with a notable decline in investment and sales figures indicating a challenging environment [3][4][6] - Predictions from international investment banks suggest that first-tier cities may stabilize by the end of the year, while strong second-tier cities may take longer to recover [3][4] - The market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past two decades, with a notable downturn beginning in 2020 [6][7] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first half of the year reached 46,658 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, reflecting a pessimistic outlook for the new housing market [3] - New residential sales area decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with sales revenue dropping by 5.5%, indicating a broader market contraction [3] - Despite the downturn, there are signs of recovery in major cities, with some areas showing resilience and a gradual improvement in market sentiment [8][10] Market Dynamics - The decline in property prices has been severe, with some popular areas experiencing price drops of up to 30% from their peak [7] - Government policies aimed at supporting the market have been implemented, contributing to a gradual thawing of market conditions [8][10] - The current environment allows buyers to identify undervalued properties, suggesting a shift towards a more discerning market [11]
FT中文网精选:谁在抛弃一线二手房?
日经中文网· 2025-07-03 03:13
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in first-tier cities in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with both new and second-hand housing prices declining sharply, leading to concerns about the future trajectory of the market [4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In May 2025, the real estate market showed the worst performance in recent years, with new housing data declining across all first-tier cities except Shanghai [4]. - Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have also dropped significantly, with Beijing and Guangzhou down by 0.8%, and Shanghai and Shenzhen down by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The article raises questions about who is abandoning the second-hand housing market and what the future holds for the real estate sector in these cities [3][5]. - There is a suggestion that holding cash may be a prudent strategy in the current economic climate, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [3].
买公寓房,打工人被背刺最狠的一次
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-24 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and fall of Loft apartments in major cities, highlighting their initial appeal to young urban dwellers as affordable housing options, and the subsequent challenges they face in terms of resale value and living conditions [3][21]. Group 1: Appeal of Loft Apartments - Loft apartments were initially popular among young people in first-tier cities due to their lower total prices, modern designs, and fewer purchasing restrictions, making them an attractive option for those looking to settle in urban areas [3][22]. - The article recounts personal experiences of individuals like Muqi and Zuo Yi, who chose Loft apartments for their affordability and unique living spaces, which seemed to meet their immediate needs [5][7][8]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Loft Owners - As the market evolved, Loft apartments began to present significant issues, including high utility costs, poor sound insulation, and complex property rights, leading to dissatisfaction among owners [18][19]. - The tightening of "commercial-to-residential" policies and a downturn in the real estate market have resulted in declining prices and difficulties in selling Loft apartments, turning them from sought-after properties into burdensome assets [19][25]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article notes that the market for Loft apartments has shifted dramatically, with many buyers now viewing them as "hot potatoes" due to their declining liquidity and increasing tax burdens compared to traditional residential properties [21][26]. - Despite the challenges, some individuals still find value in Loft apartments as a means to escape the rental market and establish a foothold in the city, indicating that they may still serve a purpose for certain demographics [27][29].
买公寓房,打工人被背刺最狠的一次
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-23 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and fall of Loft apartments in major Chinese cities, highlighting their initial appeal to young urban dwellers and the subsequent challenges they face in terms of market value, livability, and resale potential [4][44][48]. Group 1: Initial Appeal of Loft Apartments - Loft apartments were initially favored by young people in first-tier cities due to their lower total price, trendy layouts, and fewer purchasing restrictions, making them a popular choice for those seeking affordable housing options [3][4][48]. - The design and spaciousness of Loft apartments, often featuring high ceilings and unique layouts, contributed to their romanticized image, especially after being popularized by media representations [2][4]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Loft Owners - Owners of Loft apartments have reported various issues, including high utility costs, poor sound insulation, and complex property rights, which have diminished their attractiveness [28][30][31]. - The tightening of "commercial to residential" policies and a downturn in the real estate market have led to significant price drops and difficulties in selling Loft apartments, with many owners expressing regret over their purchases [4][31][44]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market for Loft apartments has shifted from being highly sought after to being viewed as a liability, with many potential buyers deterred by high taxes and low liquidity [31][44][46]. - Despite the challenges, some owners still see value in Loft apartments as a transitional housing option for young people in urban areas, emphasizing the importance of location and property condition in determining resale potential [47][48].
别再误判2025年楼市!有购房计划的家庭,先看看这些忠告!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 12:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the real estate market is still in a downward trend, with prices in a hundred cities continuing to decline for 30 consecutive months, despite some optimistic predictions about a recovery in the market [1] - The previous housing price increases were driven by rapid urbanization and high demand from both residents and speculators, but the current market is characterized by a lack of demand and a shift towards housing being viewed primarily as a necessity rather than an investment [3][5] - The population structure is imbalanced, with first-tier cities likely to see price increases due to strong demand, while third and fourth-tier cities face declining populations and stagnant prices, indicating a need for potential buyers to carefully consider their living and working situations before purchasing [5][7] Group 2 - Many individuals are currently facing reduced incomes and increased job competition, which could hinder any potential price increases in the housing market; thus, buyers should assess their financial situations thoroughly before making a purchase [7] - Real estate companies are under significant debt pressure, raising concerns about the quality and timely delivery of properties; purchasing existing homes can mitigate these risks, as buyers can inspect the property before buying [9] - The decline in demolition rates means that buying older homes may come with various issues, such as outdated infrastructure and poor living conditions, necessitating careful consideration before making such purchases [11]