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PVC月报:社会库存持续累库,反弹偏空-20250801
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 10:25
PVC月报: 社会库存持续累库,反弹偏空 | 能源化工团队 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郭建锋 | | F03126846 | | | 何 | 慧 | Z0011420 | | | 郭艳鹏 | | Z0021323 | | | 李 | 倩 | F03134406 | 时间:2025/7/31 | 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 基本面持续累库,反弹偏空 【下月展望】 6月底以来社会库存累库拐点显现,且近期累库速度加快,基本面弱势格局难改。展望8月, 根据季节性特征,社会库存通常在二至四季度处于去库周期,但今年属于PVC扩产大年,预计 延续7月累库格局。一方面,今年计划投产250万吨新产能(同比+9%),扩产速度创十年新高, 年内已兑现170万吨,耀望及海湾合计50万吨计划8-9月兑现。此外,8月仅内蒙君正、新中贾 等装置存检修计划,由于前期反内卷刺激,氯碱综合利润已经修复至同期中性偏高位置,企 业超预期检修概率不大,存量及增量装置均承压运行,供给充沛。另一方面,1-6月表观消费 量累计同比-3%,年中政治局会议首次未提楼市,地产销售面 ...
数据非常糟糕,这一轮楼市的下行,到底结束了没?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 19:08
Core Insights - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is cautious, with a notable decline in investment and sales figures indicating a challenging environment [3][4][6] - Predictions from international investment banks suggest that first-tier cities may stabilize by the end of the year, while strong second-tier cities may take longer to recover [3][4] - The market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past two decades, with a notable downturn beginning in 2020 [6][7] Investment Trends - Real estate development investment in the first half of the year reached 46,658 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%, reflecting a pessimistic outlook for the new housing market [3] - New residential sales area decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with sales revenue dropping by 5.5%, indicating a broader market contraction [3] - Despite the downturn, there are signs of recovery in major cities, with some areas showing resilience and a gradual improvement in market sentiment [8][10] Market Dynamics - The decline in property prices has been severe, with some popular areas experiencing price drops of up to 30% from their peak [7] - Government policies aimed at supporting the market have been implemented, contributing to a gradual thawing of market conditions [8][10] - The current environment allows buyers to identify undervalued properties, suggesting a shift towards a more discerning market [11]
FT中文网精选:谁在抛弃一线二手房?
日经中文网· 2025-07-03 03:13
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in first-tier cities in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with both new and second-hand housing prices declining sharply, leading to concerns about the future trajectory of the market [4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In May 2025, the real estate market showed the worst performance in recent years, with new housing data declining across all first-tier cities except Shanghai [4]. - Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have also dropped significantly, with Beijing and Guangzhou down by 0.8%, and Shanghai and Shenzhen down by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The article raises questions about who is abandoning the second-hand housing market and what the future holds for the real estate sector in these cities [3][5]. - There is a suggestion that holding cash may be a prudent strategy in the current economic climate, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [3].
买公寓房,打工人被背刺最狠的一次
虎嗅APP· 2025-05-24 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and fall of Loft apartments in major cities, highlighting their initial appeal to young urban dwellers as affordable housing options, and the subsequent challenges they face in terms of resale value and living conditions [3][21]. Group 1: Appeal of Loft Apartments - Loft apartments were initially popular among young people in first-tier cities due to their lower total prices, modern designs, and fewer purchasing restrictions, making them an attractive option for those looking to settle in urban areas [3][22]. - The article recounts personal experiences of individuals like Muqi and Zuo Yi, who chose Loft apartments for their affordability and unique living spaces, which seemed to meet their immediate needs [5][7][8]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Loft Owners - As the market evolved, Loft apartments began to present significant issues, including high utility costs, poor sound insulation, and complex property rights, leading to dissatisfaction among owners [18][19]. - The tightening of "commercial-to-residential" policies and a downturn in the real estate market have resulted in declining prices and difficulties in selling Loft apartments, turning them from sought-after properties into burdensome assets [19][25]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article notes that the market for Loft apartments has shifted dramatically, with many buyers now viewing them as "hot potatoes" due to their declining liquidity and increasing tax burdens compared to traditional residential properties [21][26]. - Despite the challenges, some individuals still find value in Loft apartments as a means to escape the rental market and establish a foothold in the city, indicating that they may still serve a purpose for certain demographics [27][29].
买公寓房,打工人被背刺最狠的一次
Hu Xiu· 2025-05-23 12:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise and fall of Loft apartments in major Chinese cities, highlighting their initial appeal to young urban dwellers and the subsequent challenges they face in terms of market value, livability, and resale potential [4][44][48]. Group 1: Initial Appeal of Loft Apartments - Loft apartments were initially favored by young people in first-tier cities due to their lower total price, trendy layouts, and fewer purchasing restrictions, making them a popular choice for those seeking affordable housing options [3][4][48]. - The design and spaciousness of Loft apartments, often featuring high ceilings and unique layouts, contributed to their romanticized image, especially after being popularized by media representations [2][4]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Loft Owners - Owners of Loft apartments have reported various issues, including high utility costs, poor sound insulation, and complex property rights, which have diminished their attractiveness [28][30][31]. - The tightening of "commercial to residential" policies and a downturn in the real estate market have led to significant price drops and difficulties in selling Loft apartments, with many owners expressing regret over their purchases [4][31][44]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market for Loft apartments has shifted from being highly sought after to being viewed as a liability, with many potential buyers deterred by high taxes and low liquidity [31][44][46]. - Despite the challenges, some owners still see value in Loft apartments as a transitional housing option for young people in urban areas, emphasizing the importance of location and property condition in determining resale potential [47][48].
别再误判2025年楼市!有购房计划的家庭,先看看这些忠告!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 12:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the real estate market is still in a downward trend, with prices in a hundred cities continuing to decline for 30 consecutive months, despite some optimistic predictions about a recovery in the market [1] - The previous housing price increases were driven by rapid urbanization and high demand from both residents and speculators, but the current market is characterized by a lack of demand and a shift towards housing being viewed primarily as a necessity rather than an investment [3][5] - The population structure is imbalanced, with first-tier cities likely to see price increases due to strong demand, while third and fourth-tier cities face declining populations and stagnant prices, indicating a need for potential buyers to carefully consider their living and working situations before purchasing [5][7] Group 2 - Many individuals are currently facing reduced incomes and increased job competition, which could hinder any potential price increases in the housing market; thus, buyers should assess their financial situations thoroughly before making a purchase [7] - Real estate companies are under significant debt pressure, raising concerns about the quality and timely delivery of properties; purchasing existing homes can mitigate these risks, as buyers can inspect the property before buying [9] - The decline in demolition rates means that buying older homes may come with various issues, such as outdated infrastructure and poor living conditions, necessitating careful consideration before making such purchases [11]
刚刚出炉的数据,解开了楼市不愿示人的“伤疤”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-03 20:20
Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with no price increases in any of the 100 major cities in April, including top-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [1][3] - The average price of second-hand homes nationwide fell to 13,892 yuan per square meter in April, a month-on-month decrease of 0.69% and a year-on-year drop of 7.23%, equating to a loss of 210,000 yuan on a 3 million yuan property [3] - The market is facing an oversupply issue, with a surge in listings and a drastic drop in transaction volumes, indicating a return to a buyer's market [3][4] Market Dynamics - In April, cities like Wuxi saw a 644% increase in second-hand home listings following the cancellation of purchase restrictions, leading to a significant price drop [3] - Major cities experienced a sharp decline in transaction volumes, with Shanghai's sales dropping from 29,000 to 22,000 units and Hangzhou's from 12,000 to 9,000 units [3] - The current market conditions reflect a mismatch between supply and demand, with listings up 30%-50% compared to last year, resulting in extreme buyer competition [3] Policy Responses - Local governments have begun to respond to the market downturn, with 12 cities, including Wuxi and Zhengzhou, urgently lifting purchase restrictions and banks in Foshan reducing first-home loan rates to a historic low of 2.86% [4] - Experts suggest that current measures are insufficient to stem the tide of selling pressure, indicating a need for more aggressive policy actions, such as lowering the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [5] - The central government is shifting focus towards supply-side reforms, with discussions around stabilizing prices and potential state intervention in the housing market [5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize in cities with strong industrial foundations and population inflows, such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Xi'an, but a nationwide recovery may take until mid-2025 [5] - Key indicators for recovery include more than half of the 70 monitored cities halting price declines and revitalization of the land market [5] - The evolving nature of real estate is prompting a shift in perspective, emphasizing the importance of assessing personal housing needs rather than solely focusing on market timing [6][7]