报告导读： 着力稳定房地产市场释放积极信号，供给侧问题与住房保障内容成为第二位置 提法，需求侧支持成为第三位置提法，我们认为政策将在优化供给、去化库存、稳定需求 等方面协同突破。 1）行业目标"着力稳定房地产市场"成为第一位置提法。 自2024年9月政治局会议首次提出"要促进房地产市场止跌回稳"，2024年中央经济工作会议提 出"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"，2025年4月政治局会议提出"持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势"，本次会议提出"着力稳定房地产市场"。从"促进"到"持 续用力"到"持续巩固"到"着力稳定"，我们认为政策态度更加明朗，政策将保持力度，防止基本面反复。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅号。其他机构或个人在微信平台上以国泰海通研究所名义注 册的，或含有"国泰海通研究"，或含有与国泰海通证券研究所品牌名称相关信息的其他订阅号均不是国 泰海通证券研究所官方订阅号 本订阅号不是国泰海通证券研究报告发布平台 本订阅号所载内容均来 2）供给侧问题与住房保障内容成为第二位置提法。 ...

Market Overview - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with new residential prices in 70 major cities decreasing by 0.45% and second-hand home prices dropping by 0.66%, marking the largest declines of the year [3] - Despite various stimulus policies implemented by the government, including mortgage subsidies and tax rebates, the transaction volume has decreased by 28.1% compared to the same period last year, reaching the lowest level since 2017 [3][5] Underlying Issues - The core issue affecting the market is a lack of confidence among buyers, rather than just pricing. Even with reduced mortgage costs and tax incentives, buyers are hesitant to enter the market due to fears that prices have not yet bottomed out [7] - The real estate sector, which previously served as a key driver of the economy, is now facing a "housing winter," leading to a broader wealth contraction effect that suppresses consumer demand [7] Policy Challenges - Traditional policy tools appear to be ineffective in addressing the current market challenges, as they inadvertently harm genuine housing demand while attempting to curb speculation [11] - The market is showing signs of significant differentiation, with some areas experiencing price increases while others see declines, complicating the implementation of uniform macroeconomic policies [11] Future Outlook - By 2026, the approach to real estate policy may shift from merely stimulating demand to more comprehensive solutions, including restrictions on institutional investors and increased housing supply [13][15] - New financing models are emerging to address affordability challenges, indicating a potential shift in focus towards sustainable housing solutions [15] Buyer Strategies - In the evolving market landscape, buyers are advised to adopt new strategies, focusing on local market trends and being flexible in their long-term planning [17] - The concept of housing may need to transition from an investment vehicle to a primary residence, emphasizing its role as a home rather than merely an asset [17]