Core Viewpoint - The company is actively developing non-housing businesses to mitigate cyclical risks and is shifting to a defensive posture by enhancing cost efficiency and increasing shareholder returns to improve investment value [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net profit was 747 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.1%, while adjusted net profit was 1.286 billion yuan, down 27.8% [2] - The total transaction volume for the company in Q3 2025 was 736.7 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year, with net revenue of 23.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1% [1] - The company's adjusted net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 5.719 billion, 6.244 billion, and 6.995 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.832 billion, 4.153 billion, and 4.773 billion yuan [1] Business Segments - In the real estate transaction service sector, the company is piloting a tenant-separation mechanism in Shanghai to enhance marketing and sales capabilities for sellers [2] - The housing rental service is integrating AI with operations, contributing over 100 million yuan in profit in Q3 2025, with both home decoration and rental services achieving profitability at the city level [2] - The company's existing housing business net revenue was 6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a decrease of 3.6%, while the total transaction volume for existing housing was 505.6 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% [2] New Housing Business - The new housing business net revenue was 6.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, down 14.1%, with total transaction volume at 196.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.7% [3] - The GTV for the new housing business under the Beilian model accounted for 81.7% in Q3 2025, showing a slight increase from the previous quarter [3] Share Buyback - The company has actively implemented a share buyback plan, with a quarterly buyback amount reaching 281 million USD, the highest in nearly two years [3] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total amount spent on buybacks this year was approximately 675 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, representing about 3% of the total share capital as of the end of 2024 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Beike-W (02423), is rated "Buy" by Guotai Junan, with projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 being 57.19 billion, 62.44 billion, and 69.95 billion respectively, and a target price of 66.85 HKD per share based on a 38x PE valuation for 2025 [1] - The company is actively developing non-property businesses to mitigate cyclical risks and is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements while increasing shareholder returns to enhance investment value [1] - In Q3 2025, the total transaction volume was 736.7 billion, remaining stable year-on-year, while net income increased by 2.1% to 23.1 billion, although net profit decreased by 36.1% to 0.747 billion [1] Group 2 - The second-hand property business is steadily expanding, with net income from existing properties at 6 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, while total transaction volume increased by 5.8% to 505.6 billion [2] - The commission rate for existing properties was 1.19%, with the Lianjia existing property commission rate at 2.53% and the Beilian existing property commission rate at 0.38% [2] - The new property business saw a decline in net income by 14.1% to 6.6 billion, with total transaction volume down 13.7% to 196.3 billion in Q3 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company has actively implemented a share repurchase plan, with a record high repurchase amount of 281 million in Q3 2025, bringing the total repurchase amount for the year to approximately 675 million, a 15.7% increase year-on-year [3] - Since the initiation of the repurchase program in September 2022, the cumulative repurchase amount has reached approximately 2.3 billion, accounting for about 11.5% of the total share capital before the program started [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan has issued a "Buy" rating for Beike-W (02423), projecting adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 57.19 billion, 62.44 billion, and 69.95 billion respectively, with a 2025 PE valuation of 38 times, leading to a target price of 60.83 yuan, equivalent to 66.85 HKD per share [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the total transaction volume was 736.7 billion, remaining stable year-on-year, while net income increased by 2.1% to 23.1 billion; however, net profit decreased by 36.1% to 0.747 billion, and adjusted net profit fell by 27.8% to 1.286 billion [2] - The company's rental services have integrated AI, contributing over 0.1 billion in profit in Q3 2025, with home decoration and rental services achieving profitability at the city level, marking a historical high in profit contribution [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The existing housing business saw net income of 6 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, while total transaction volume increased by 5.8% to 505.6 billion; the Beilian model accounted for 62.4% of the total transaction volume, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The new housing business experienced a net income decline of 14.1% to 6.6 billion, with total transaction volume down 13.7% to 196.3 billion; the GTV under the Beilian model accounted for 81.7%, showing a slight increase [3] Group 3: Share Buyback - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a record high in share buyback amounting to 281 million USD, with total buybacks for the year reaching approximately 675 million USD, a 15.7% increase year-on-year, representing about 3% of the total share capital as of the end of 2024 [4] - Since the initiation of the buyback program in September 2022, the cumulative buyback amount has reached approximately 2.3 billion USD, accounting for about 11.5% of the total share capital prior to the program [4]