机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：涂力磊/谢皓宇/陈昭颖 本报告导读： 交易规模基本持平，两翼业务实现盈利。2025 年3Q，公司总交易额为7367 亿元，同比基本持平；净收 入为231 亿元，同比增加2.1%。 2025 年3Q，公司净利润为7.47 亿元，同比下降36.1%，经调整净利润为12.86 亿元，同比下降27.8%。 房产交易服务方面，公司在上海试点房客分离机制，帮助卖方经纪人构建更好的房源营销和销售能力。 房屋租赁服务方面，公司深度推进AI 与运营融合， 以及AI对服务者作业、客户体验的全链路赋能，该 业务在2025 年3Q 贡献超过1 亿元的利润。家装家居业务和房屋租赁服务均实现业务城市层面扣除总部 费用前的盈利，贡献利润占毛利的比例创历史新高。 二手规模稳健扩展，新房业务增速下降。2025 年3Q，公司的存量房业务的净收入为60 亿元，同比下降 3.6%；存量房交易的总交易额为5056 亿元，同比增加5.8%。2025 年3Q，贝壳存量房业务总交易额中贝 联模式占比为62.4%，环比下降1.1 个百分点，同比提高3.1 个百分点。2025 年3Q，贝壳存量房业务佣 金率为1.19%，其中链家存量 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Beike-W (02423), is rated "Buy" by Guotai Junan, with projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 being 57.19 billion, 62.44 billion, and 69.95 billion respectively, and a target price of 66.85 HKD per share based on a 38x PE valuation for 2025 [1] - The company is actively developing non-property businesses to mitigate cyclical risks and is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements while increasing shareholder returns to enhance investment value [1] - In Q3 2025, the total transaction volume was 736.7 billion, remaining stable year-on-year, while net income increased by 2.1% to 23.1 billion, although net profit decreased by 36.1% to 0.747 billion [1] Group 2 - The second-hand property business is steadily expanding, with net income from existing properties at 6 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, while total transaction volume increased by 5.8% to 505.6 billion [2] - The commission rate for existing properties was 1.19%, with the Lianjia existing property commission rate at 2.53% and the Beilian existing property commission rate at 0.38% [2] - The new property business saw a decline in net income by 14.1% to 6.6 billion, with total transaction volume down 13.7% to 196.3 billion in Q3 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company has actively implemented a share repurchase plan, with a record high repurchase amount of 281 million in Q3 2025, bringing the total repurchase amount for the year to approximately 675 million, a 15.7% increase year-on-year [3] - Since the initiation of the repurchase program in September 2022, the cumulative repurchase amount has reached approximately 2.3 billion, accounting for about 11.5% of the total share capital before the program started [3]

国泰海通发布研报称，予贝壳-W(02423)"增持"评级。该行预计公司2025-2027年经调整净利润分别为 57.19、62.44、69.95亿元(归母净利润分别为38.32、41.53、47.73亿元)，给予公司2025年38倍PE估值， 对应合理价值为60.83元，换算为每股66.85港元。公司当前积极发展非房业务应对周期风险，抓紧降费 提效动作转为防守姿态，加大股东回馈力度提高投资价值。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 2025年第三季度，公司回购金额达到2.81亿美元，单季度回购金额创近两年来新高。截至2025年第三季 度末，公司今年斥资约6.75亿美元回购股份，金额同比增长15.7%，回购股数占2024年末总股本约3%。 自2022年9月回购项目启动以来，截至2025年9月末，公司累计回购金额约23亿美元，回购股数占回购项 目启动前公司总股本约11.5%。 风险提示：房地产行业面临缩量风险，公司新业务模式有待验证。 2025年3Q，公司总交易额为7367亿元，同比基本持平;净收入为231亿元，同比增加2.1%，2025年3Q， 公司净利润为7.47亿元，同比下降36.1%，经调整净利润为12.86亿元，同 ...