Group 1 - The article highlights the double standards in trade practices, where Western countries advocate for free trade when exporting to China but impose trade barriers against Chinese products entering their markets [1][4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on brandy from the EU starting July 5, which has been met with claims of unfairness from the affected countries [1][4] - The U.S. has led efforts to restrict the use of Chinese 5G technology in Europe, reflecting a broader narrative of a "technology cold war" driven by geopolitical considerations [3][4] Group 2 - The EU has decided to impose anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024, aiming to weaken China's competitiveness in the global renewable energy sector [4][7] - Historical cooperation between China and Europe in manufacturing has been significant, with European firms providing technology transfer that helped China develop its industrial framework [6][7] - European countries are now adopting a defensive stance in their economic relations with China, using tariffs and technical standards to limit market access for Chinese products [7][9] Group 3 - There is a contradiction in Europe's approach, as it seeks to maintain its industrial advantages while simultaneously requesting increased Chinese investment and job creation [9][11] - The article criticizes the notion that cooperation with China is a form of economic aid, arguing that China's manufacturing success is a result of its own efforts rather than external assistance [11] - It calls for a reevaluation of how countries can promote their own development while ensuring a fair competitive environment, rather than resorting to protectionism for short-term gains [11]

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. has announced the initiation of the withdrawal of the "AI diffusion rules" from the Biden administration, strengthening export controls on overseas AI chips, claiming that using Huawei's Ascend AI chips globally may violate U.S. regulations [3] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese cranes and 20%-100% tariffs on container and chassis equipment, citing the need to bring shipbuilding back to the U.S. [3] - The U.S. Commerce Department has preliminarily determined that Chinese battery component materials receive "high subsidies," proposing countervailing duties that distort normal market competition into a "government subsidy war" [3] Group 2: Technology and Export Controls - The U.S. has included Huawei's Ascend chips in the category of "violating U.S. export controls," warning global companies against using U.S. AI chips to train Chinese AI models [4] - Reports indicate that the Trump administration is preparing to add multiple Chinese tech companies to the control list, expanding the "entity list" beyond Huawei and ZTE to include chip manufacturers [4] - The U.S. aims to cut off the development of China's tech industry through targeted measures, transforming technology exchange into a "tech cold war" [4] Group 3: U.S. Strategic Misjudgments - The U.S. is driven by political opportunism, with some politicians leveraging anti-China sentiment for political gain, even at the cost of U.S.-China economic relations [5] - The U.S. exhibits "hegemonic anxiety" as China's GDP approaches that of the U.S., attempting to delay China's industrial upgrades through tariffs and technology blockades [5] - The U.S. maintains a zero-sum game mentality, ignoring the deep integration of global supply chains and attempting to preserve its top position in the global value chain through "decoupling" [5] Group 4: Consequences of Unilateral Actions - Historical evidence shows that unilateral sanctions ultimately backfire, as seen in the 2025 trade war where the U.S. imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, leading to significant losses for companies like Tesla and Apple, and increased living costs for American households [6] - The intensified technology blockade has caused companies like NVIDIA and AMD to lose access to the largest AI chip market, prompting China to accelerate the development of its semiconductor industry [7] - The U.S. efforts to form a "semiconductor alliance 2.0" have faced challenges, as countries like South Korea seek exemptions for chip exports to China, and companies like ASML continue to supply China with lithography machines [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Congress has issued subpoenas to three Chinese telecom companies—China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom—regarding potential data acquisition through their cloud services and internet operations in the U.S. This reflects a pattern of U.S. actions against Chinese firms under the guise of "national security" [1] - The U.S. has consistently made accusations against Chinese entities without providing substantial evidence, relying instead on presumption of guilt and selective intelligence disclosures to create a narrative of threat [1][2] - The investigation extends beyond traditional telecom services to emerging sectors like cloud services and data centers, indicating U.S. anxiety over China's technological advancements and its competitive position in the cybersecurity field [2] Group 2 - There is a notable double standard in the U.S. scrutiny of Chinese companies compared to European telecom firms and American tech giants, which have not faced similar investigations despite their significant data holdings [3] - The actions of the U.S. Congress reflect political opportunism, with a coordinated effort among intelligence agencies, tech companies, and media to construct a narrative that benefits political and financial interests, particularly in the context of increasing cybersecurity budgets [3] - China's response to U.S. accusations emphasizes dialogue and cooperation, advocating for multilateralism and the establishment of international rules to address cybersecurity issues, contrasting with the U.S. approach [4]

图片来源： linkedin 本⽂是桥⽔基⾦创始⼈达⾥奥的最新洞⻅。世界正站在⼀场深刻变⾰的悬崖边缘，⽽⼤多数⼈仍在凝 视脚下的裂痕，却未察觉整座⼭崖正在崩塌。特朗普的关税政策不过是表象，其背后是货币、政治与 地缘秩序的结构性断裂 —— 债务泡沫的膨胀已使全球经济沦为⼀场危险的债务狂欢，政治极化正撕裂 民主制度的根基，⽽单边主义的崛起正加速旧秩序的⽡解。历史从不重复，却总是押着相似的韵脚： 当不可持续的⽭盾堆积⾄临界点，系统终将以剧烈的⽅式重构。 瑞 · 达⾥奥是 全球最⼤对冲基⾦桥⽔的创始⼈。作为管理着 1600 亿美元资产的投资巨擘，达⾥奥以研 究债务周期和帝国兴衰闻名，其 " 原则 " ⽅法论被全球政商领袖奉为圭臬。以下是全⽂翻译： 当前，公众的注意⼒正合理聚焦于已宣布的关税政策及其对市场经济的重⼤冲击，但鲜少有⼈关注引 发这些政策的深层动因，以及未来可能出现的更⼤规模系统性断裂。 需要澄清的是，尽管特朗普政府的关税决策举⾜轻重，但多数⼈忽视了其当选总统的底层逻辑。 正 是这些未被充分认知的根源⼒量，不仅催⽣了关税政策，更驱动着⼏乎所有重⼤变⾰的进程。 真正需要警惕的，是主要货币秩序、政治秩序与地缘秩序 ...