Market Overview - The "Triple Witching Day" saw a surge in trading volume, marking the third-highest record. Major US stock indices reached historical highs for two consecutive days, while small-cap indices fell from record highs [2] - iPhone 17's strong sales in Asia boosted Apple's stock by over 3%. Oracle's stock rose more than 4% amid reports of a $20 billion cloud computing deal with Meta [2] - The ten-year US Treasury yield rose for three consecutive days, reaching a two-week high, while the dollar index increased for three days to a one-week high [2] - Bitcoin dropped over $200, falling below the 116,000 mark, while crude oil fell over 1% to a one-week low [2] Key Developments - ByteDance announced it would comply with Chinese laws to ensure TikTok's continued service in the US, emphasizing the need for a fair business environment for Chinese companies [4][10] - The Chinese government is pushing for a stable and healthy development of Sino-US economic relations, urging the US to avoid unilateral trade restrictions [10][14] - The Chinese government announced a tax exemption for first-time homebuyers in Shanghai, aiming to optimize property tax policies [11] Company News - Apple's iPhone 17 series launched in China, with the Pro Max version seeing strong demand, particularly in Beijing and Shanghai, while Shenzhen's demand cooled [21] - Laser radar sales surged nearly 100% due to increased demand in the robotics market, with industrial robot production rising by 35.6% year-on-year [21][31] - Xiaomi's new voice model, Xiaomi-MiMo-Audio, achieved state-of-the-art performance in various tests, showcasing advancements in voice technology [22] Investment Insights - Goldman Sachs raised its target price for Industrial Fulian, citing optimistic profit growth driven by AI server market share and new smartphone cycles [23] - Goldman Sachs also upgraded Baidu's target price, recognizing its AI capabilities and doubling the valuation of its autonomous driving business [23] - Morgan Stanley expressed confidence in Chinese bank stocks, highlighting their high dividend yields compared to government bonds [25]

Market Overview - US stock markets reached new historical highs, with major indices closing higher, while small-cap stocks retreated from record levels [2] - Oracle's stock rose over 4% following news of a $20 billion AI cloud computing deal with Meta [2] - The Chinese concept stock index fell slightly by 0.25%, but gained 3.42% over the week [2] - Bitcoin dropped by 2%, returning to around $115,000, while gold prices increased by over 1% [2] - Asian markets saw declines in both stocks and bonds, with A-shares dropping across major indices [2] Key Developments - Xi Jinping and Donald Trump held a phone call, emphasizing the need to avoid unilateral trade restrictions [10] - ByteDance announced it would comply with Chinese laws to ensure TikTok's continued service in the US [11] - The State Council of China is discussing policies for domestic product standards in government procurement [11] - Shanghai has optimized its property tax policy, exempting first-time homebuyers from property tax [12] - Trump proposed a $100,000 fee increase on H-1B visas, which could generate over $100 billion for the US Treasury [12] Company News - OpenAI is accelerating its hardware manufacturing plans with Luxshare Precision, aiming to launch its first device by late 2026 or early 2027 [15] - Oracle is negotiating a $20 billion multi-year cloud computing agreement with Meta to provide AI model training and deployment resources [16] - TSMC's competition for 2nm capacity has seen Apple secure over 50% of the production, potentially putting competitors like Qualcomm at a disadvantage [17] - Xiaomi has open-sourced its strongest voice model, achieving state-of-the-art results in various tests [18] - Citic Securities has a positive outlook on Huawei's Ascend AI chips, emphasizing their system-level collaboration approach [19] Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs raised its target price for Industrial Fulian, citing optimistic profit growth driven by AI server market share and new product cycles [19] - Goldman Sachs also upgraded Baidu's target price, recognizing its AI cloud capabilities and doubling the valuation of its autonomous driving business [20] - JPMorgan remains bullish on Chinese bank stocks, highlighting their attractive dividend yields compared to government bonds [20] - Goldman Sachs has turned bearish on the solar sector, predicting a decline in polysilicon prices due to oversupply [20]

2025 年 9 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 宏观及行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,545 | -1.35 | 32.33 | | 恒生国企 | 9,457 | -1.46 | 29.72 | | 恒生科技 | 6,271 | -0.99 | 40.36 | | 上证综指 | 3,832 | -1.15 | 14.32 | | 深证综指 | 2,480 | -1.21 | 26.71 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,096 | -1.64 | 44.56 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,142 | 0.27 | 8.46 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,632 | 0.48 | 12.76 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,471 | 0.94 | 16.36 | | 德国 DAX | 23,675 | 1.35 | 18.91 ...

Group 1 - The recent statements by Trump regarding tariffs on China have created confusion, as he initially expressed a desire to reach an agreement but later considered imposing new tariffs [1][4] - The U.S. Vice President, Vance, indicated that the U.S. is contemplating new tariffs on China due to its continued purchase of Russian oil, similar to previous sanctions on India [4][8] - China is not as intimidated by U.S. threats as India was, and it has chosen to respond directly through a technology war rather than exhausting resources in a tariff battle [6][8] Group 2 - A Chinese media article accused U.S. tech companies of potentially embedding "backdoor" technologies in chips, which provoked a strong reaction from the U.S. tech sector, including a denial from Nvidia [9][10] - The article highlighted past U.S. government requests for tech companies to implant "backdoors," raising global concerns about U.S. technological leadership and integrity [9][10] - U.S. allies are increasingly anxious about the potential for U.S. interference in their technological advancements, fearing that their proprietary technologies could be compromised [11][12] Group 3 - The Chinese response has impacted the U.S. semiconductor industry, which holds 38% of global added value, with companies like Nvidia and Qualcomm accounting for 56% of profits [14] - The U.S. technology blockade against China is likely to accelerate China's push for domestic alternatives, which could severely affect revenues for U.S. semiconductor firms [14][16] - The recent developments have shifted the focus from a tariff war to a technology war, revealing U.S. hegemonic behavior in the global tech arena and potentially leading to long-term impacts on the U.S. tech market [16][17] Group 4 - On August 12, a compromise was reached with the signing of the Stockholm Trade Talks Joint Statement, which suspended the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs while maintaining 10% base tariffs [16][17] - Despite this, the U.S. continues to impose Section 301 tariffs and technology export controls on 136 Chinese entities, indicating a persistent strategy to hinder China's technological progress [16][17] - The situation presents both challenges and opportunities for China, particularly in advancing its domestic AI chip technology to overcome U.S. restrictions [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company Tianrongxin (002212) has collaborated with Huawei to launch the Tianrongxin Intelligent Computing Integrated Machine (Ascend Version), which utilizes Huawei's Ascend AI chip for computational support [1] Group 1: Product Offerings - The Tianrongxin Kunlun. Xinchang product series includes 15 categories and 27 models, featuring products such as firewalls, situational awareness, hyper-convergence, desktop cloud, and endpoint threat defense [1] - All products in the Kunlun series are equipped with Huawei's Kunpeng processor chips, addressing diverse customer needs in the fields of network security and intelligent computing cloud [1]

Core Insights - The completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations marks a new height in economic cooperation between China and ASEAN, with Guangdong emerging as a key supply chain hub [1][11] - Guangdong's trade with ASEAN has shown significant growth, with a total trade volume of 488.57 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, reflecting a 7.5% increase year-on-year [1][5] - The report highlights three major trends in Guangdong-ASEAN supply chain cooperation: accelerated regional layout, intelligent integration, and expedited green transformation [2][6] Trade and Investment Growth - Guangdong's trade with ASEAN is characterized by a dynamic trade cycle, where ASEAN exports primary products and raw materials to Guangdong, which in turn exports capital-intensive products [7][10] - In 2023, Guangdong established 383 new overseas enterprises in ASEAN countries, with direct investment exceeding $900 million, marking a 168.5% year-on-year increase [10] - ASEAN remains Guangdong's largest trading partner, with Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore being the top five trading partners [5][10] Supply Chain Cooperation - Guangdong enterprises are deepening industrial collaboration with ASEAN, focusing on logistics, after-sales services, and extending into higher-value supply chain segments [6][9] - The establishment of a "Guangdong-ASEAN International Supply Chain Cooperation Alliance" aims to enhance supply chain collaboration [15] - The report emphasizes the importance of a well-structured supply chain division system to support the dynamic trade cycle between Guangdong and ASEAN [7][11] Technological and Innovative Collaboration - Guangdong's strong innovation capabilities, with R&D expenditure reaching 460 billion yuan in 2023, position it well for technological collaboration with ASEAN [12][13] - The report notes that both regions are enhancing cooperation in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and green energy [12][13] - The establishment of cross-border e-commerce infrastructure is seen as a new avenue for reshaping supply chain cooperation [14][15] Mechanism and Platform Development - Guangdong is committed to building long-term cooperation mechanisms with ASEAN, as evidenced by the recent trade promotion and supply chain cooperation exchange meeting [4][15] - The "Yue Chain ASEAN" online service platform has been launched to facilitate trade and investment services for Guangdong enterprises in ASEAN [15] - The report indicates that the upgraded China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement will foster deeper regional economic integration and cooperation in new fields [11][12]

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. has announced the initiation of the withdrawal of the "AI diffusion rules" from the Biden administration, strengthening export controls on overseas AI chips, claiming that using Huawei's Ascend AI chips globally may violate U.S. regulations [3] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese cranes and 20%-100% tariffs on container and chassis equipment, citing the need to bring shipbuilding back to the U.S. [3] - The U.S. Commerce Department has preliminarily determined that Chinese battery component materials receive "high subsidies," proposing countervailing duties that distort normal market competition into a "government subsidy war" [3] Group 2: Technology and Export Controls - The U.S. has included Huawei's Ascend chips in the category of "violating U.S. export controls," warning global companies against using U.S. AI chips to train Chinese AI models [4] - Reports indicate that the Trump administration is preparing to add multiple Chinese tech companies to the control list, expanding the "entity list" beyond Huawei and ZTE to include chip manufacturers [4] - The U.S. aims to cut off the development of China's tech industry through targeted measures, transforming technology exchange into a "tech cold war" [4] Group 3: U.S. Strategic Misjudgments - The U.S. is driven by political opportunism, with some politicians leveraging anti-China sentiment for political gain, even at the cost of U.S.-China economic relations [5] - The U.S. exhibits "hegemonic anxiety" as China's GDP approaches that of the U.S., attempting to delay China's industrial upgrades through tariffs and technology blockades [5] - The U.S. maintains a zero-sum game mentality, ignoring the deep integration of global supply chains and attempting to preserve its top position in the global value chain through "decoupling" [5] Group 4: Consequences of Unilateral Actions - Historical evidence shows that unilateral sanctions ultimately backfire, as seen in the 2025 trade war where the U.S. imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, leading to significant losses for companies like Tesla and Apple, and increased living costs for American households [6] - The intensified technology blockade has caused companies like NVIDIA and AMD to lose access to the largest AI chip market, prompting China to accelerate the development of its semiconductor industry [7] - The U.S. efforts to form a "semiconductor alliance 2.0" have faced challenges, as countries like South Korea seek exemptions for chip exports to China, and companies like ASML continue to supply China with lithography machines [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions taken by the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding export controls on Huawei chips, highlighting China's response to what it perceives as unilateral and protectionist measures by the U.S. [2] Group 1: U.S. Export Control Measures - The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has announced three new export control measures regarding AI chips: 1. Using Huawei Ascend AI chips anywhere globally is considered a violation of U.S. export controls [3] 2. Public warnings have been issued about the potential consequences of allowing U.S. AI chips to be used for training and inference of Chinese AI models [4] 3. Guidance has been provided to U.S. companies on how to protect their supply chains from being transferred [5] Group 2: China's Response - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has criticized the U.S. actions as typical of non-market and unilateral bullying practices, which undermine the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain and disrupt market rules and international trade order [2] - China urges the U.S. to correct its actions and states that it will take resolute measures to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in U.S. semiconductor export controls and their implications for U.S.-China tech competition, particularly focusing on the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the semiconductor and AI industries in both countries [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Policy Changes - The U.S. Department of Commerce has initiated the repeal of the AI diffusion rules signed during Biden's administration and announced additional measures to strengthen global chip export controls, including a ban on the global use of Huawei's Ascend AI chips [1][2]. - The Trump administration's semiconductor control policies indicate a trend towards decoupling the U.S. and Chinese semiconductor industries, with both sides aiming to reduce dependency on each other [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on China - In the short term, Chinese companies will have to endure the impact of U.S. policies and seek partnerships with non-U.S. entities, as the U.S. has limited the autonomy of companies like NVIDIA in supplying AI chips to China [2][3]. - The recent changes in U.S. policy may create opportunities for intermediaries, as traditional smuggling routes could pivot towards AI chip trafficking [4][6]. Group 3: Semiconductor Manufacturing Landscape - The new origin recognition rules for semiconductor products in China aim to encourage domestic manufacturing by defining the origin based on the foundry location, which could lead to a shift in production back to mainland China or other regions like Taiwan and South Korea [7][9]. - The U.S. "Chip Act" has attracted multinational companies to invest in advanced semiconductor production lines in the U.S., but the additional tariffs on exports back to China may diminish the cost advantages of these investments [9][10]. Group 4: Political Implications of Subsidies - The "Chip Act" subsidies have evolved into a political tool, with funding directed towards older semiconductor companies and military-related firms rather than advancing cutting-edge semiconductor capabilities [10][12]. - The timing of subsidy approvals has been strategically aligned with electoral cycles, indicating that the funding has become intertwined with political agendas rather than purely industrial objectives [12][13]. Group 5: International Cooperation and Export Controls - The Biden administration's "small yard, high wall" strategy has pressured allies like Japan and the Netherlands to implement stricter export controls, which could significantly impact China's semiconductor industry [24][25]. - The potential for a new alliance among U.S. allies to enforce semiconductor export controls could strengthen the U.S. position, but uncertainties remain regarding the future cooperation of these allies under a different U.S. administration [27][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent regulations issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which impose restrictions on the use of Huawei's Ascend AI chips globally, highlighting the implications for companies using these advanced computing chips [1][3]. Summary by Sections U.S. Regulations on Huawei Chips - The U.S. Department of Commerce has stated that using Huawei's Ascend chips anywhere in the world violates U.S. export control regulations [3]. - Specific models mentioned include the Huawei Ascend 910B, 910C, and 910D, which may lead to penalties for companies that utilize them [3]. Classification of High-Performance Chips - The regulations categorize advanced high-performance chips into three classes based on their total processing performance (TPP) and performance density: 1. Chips with TPP greater than or equal to 4800 TOPS, or TPP greater than or equal to 1600 TOPS with a performance density of 5.92 or higher [4]. 2. Chips with TPP between 2400 TOPS and 4800 TOPS, and performance density between 1.6 and 5.92, or TPP above 1600 TOPS with performance density between 3.2 and 5.92 [4]. 3. High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) components with memory bandwidth density greater than 2 GB/s per square millimeter [5]. Consequences of Non-Compliance - The regulations indicate that violations could result in severe penalties, including up to 20 years of imprisonment [6]. - Experts have commented that these guidelines are quite stringent, effectively forcing companies to choose between Huawei's H chips and NVIDIA's N chips [6].