投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 短线看强 | 日元加息落地，短期流动性回升 | | 铜 | 2602 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：上周金价震荡上行。宏观层面，美元指数触底回升，利空黄金；日元加息 ...

Group 1 - Gold (XAU/USD) shows initial signs of strength but quickly loses momentum as market sentiment shifts, influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - The expectation for immediate interest rate cuts has diminished, with the probability of a December rate cut falling below 50%, putting pressure on gold prices [2][3] - The strengthening of the US dollar, driven by adjustments in interest rate expectations, increases the purchasing cost of gold for international buyers, adding further pressure on gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - Key support level around $4000 has become crucial, coinciding with the lower boundary of an expanding wedge pattern, indicating technical buying interest remains [6] - If the wedge pattern holds, gold may consolidate in this area before attempting another upward move, with mid-term resistance at approximately $4150 [6] - The interplay of macroeconomic uncertainty and technical pressures keeps gold in a state of volatility, with future movements dependent on upcoming data and policy signals [6]