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苍原资本:A股市场慢涨行情有望延续
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 03:47
Market Performance - The A-share market showed strong performance on October 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark, indicating a bullish trend [1][4] - The market sentiment is gradually stabilizing, with active funds' reduction behavior nearing its end, reflecting a steady correction in investor confidence [4] Sector Analysis - Key sectors performing well include communication equipment, electronic components, consumer electronics, and non-ferrous metals, while gaming, wind power equipment, engineering consulting services, and mining sectors lagged [1] - The storage chip sector showed strength, with local stocks in Fujian performing well, and the computing hardware sector remained active [4] Economic and Policy Influences - Multiple factors such as the Fourth Plenary Session setting the tone for the "14th Five-Year Plan," the opening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, and the easing of China-US trade relations are contributing to a gradual upward trend in the A-share market [1] - The market is expected to continue its slow upward trend in the short term, with close attention needed on policy, capital flow, and external market changes [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the index has broken through key resistance levels, with significant volume expansion indicating active market sentiment [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous trading range, suggesting potential for further upward movement [4] Mid-term Outlook - Despite potential supply-demand pressures in the spring of next year, the gradual clearing of production capacity and the effects of policies are expected to stabilize the economic and market bottom, serving as a key driving force for a new market rally [4] - Supportive factors for the fourth quarter include anti-involution policies, increased household savings entering the market, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a reversal in technical indicators, suggesting a bullish outlook for A-shares [4]
短期提升风险偏好 积极做多A股
Group 1 - Citic Securities believes that the style switch has essentially ended, indicating a return to performance-driven structural markets, supported by three characteristics: rapid completion of position adjustments by active funds, a shift in market understanding of trade disputes, and a recovery of low-volatility dividend-related sectors within three weeks [1] - The recent phase of Sino-US negotiations has yielded results, and with the conclusion of Q3 reports, the focus should be on identifying sectors with potential for sustained profit growth next year [1] - Two emerging trends are noted: the safety of industrial chains, where Chinese manufacturing firms may benefit from their competitive edge and high costs of overseas capacity reset, and the expansion of AI from cloud to edge, indicating a clear trend towards personalized AI applications, although market activation requires more product catalysts [1] Group 2 - Citic Jiantou observes a cooling in market sentiment since October, with a slowdown in incremental capital inflow, yet overall momentum remains stable, and recent days have shown signs of stabilization [2] - The growth sector has experienced a decline of over 10%, and nearly half of the market has seen reduced trading volumes, suggesting limited short-term adjustment space [2] - The end of October is anticipated to be a critical juncture for market trends, with expectations of market consolidation due to uncertainties in Sino-US negotiations, while a potential upward breakout is likely if no further negative factors arise post-negotiation [2]