世界黄金协会分析师回应市场关切，指出黄金波动率仍与长期平均水平一致。他们认为，在股债相关性上升的环境下，黄金仍是投资组合分散风险的关键工 具。 在关税不确定性、通胀压力以及地缘经济冲突的背景下，市场、宏观和地缘政治风险层出不穷，加剧了市场波动。 为了解今年与去年相比投资者所应对的动荡程度，图表1展示了黄金、美国股票及美国国债的实际波动率。在地缘政治与地缘经济环境加剧的推动下，股票 和黄金市场波动率均有所上升，2025年初首次宣布关税相关政策前后，股票波动率出现显著飙升。另一方面，美国国债波动率则呈下降趋势。总体而言，所 有资产类别的波动率仍基本与其长期平均水平持平。 图表1：2025年股票和黄金波动率均有所增加，黄金波动率基本持平于长期平均水平 尽管今年黄金波动率随其强劲的价格上涨而上升，但仍基本与其长期平均水平一致，且远低于以往类似强劲价格表现时期的水平（图表2）。这表明，尽管 近期价格表现强劲，黄金走势仍较为平稳有序。 图表2：尽管2025年波动性有所上升，但黄金的年化波动率仍远低于此前的高点 这对投资组合意味着什么？ 股票波动率的上升，加之股票与债券之间的正相关性，导致投资组合风险上升——这提醒投资者需 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Asian bonds are emerging as a resilient and rewarding alternative to traditional safe-haven assets, especially in the context of political and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Asian local currency bonds offer attractive real yields and potential for currency appreciation, making them appealing for investors looking to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets [1][11] - Asian dollar bonds are expected to provide higher returns and a more stable policy environment compared to developed market bonds, despite the narrower credit spreads relative to historical levels [1][7] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index has decreased by 6.3% year-to-date, influenced by factors such as the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, leading to uncertainty in the dollar's long-term trajectory [4] - Despite the large scale of foreign-held U.S. investment portfolio assets, the desire for investors to significantly increase their holdings in U.S. dollars and assets may be diminishing [4][6] - The supply of U.S. bonds is increasing, and inflation is rising, prompting U.S. fixed income investors to seek sufficient returns to compensate for duration risk, indicating potential upward pressure on long-term bond yields [6] Group 3 - Asian emerging markets are experiencing higher real yields, with countries like India showing nominal bond yields exceeding the latest inflation rates by over 420 basis points, indicating strong investment opportunities [11] - The demand for Asian local currency bonds is supported by lower inflation and higher real yields, which provide a strong investment rationale for these assets [11] - The offshore RMB market has undergone structural changes, with increased demand and improved liquidity, making offshore RMB bonds a preferred choice for investors seeking to enhance yield and extend credit duration [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the differences in risk characteristics between stocks and funds, emphasizing the importance of understanding these differences for investors to make informed decisions based on their risk tolerance [1][2]. - Stocks are ownership certificates issued by companies, and their risks are influenced by the company's operational performance, macroeconomic conditions, and political stability, leading to potential significant losses for investors [1][3]. - Funds are collective investment vehicles that pool money from multiple investors, offering a diversified approach to risk management, with different types of funds (e.g., equity funds, bond funds) exhibiting varying risk levels [2][3]. Group 2 - Stock investments require a higher level of professional analysis and knowledge from investors, as they need to monitor macroeconomic trends, industry dynamics, and company performance closely [3]. - Fund investments generally require less expertise from individual investors, especially when managed by professional fund managers, allowing for a more hands-off approach to asset allocation and investment decisions [3]. - The inherent diversification of funds reduces the risk associated with individual securities, contrasting with the concentrated risk exposure of investing in single stocks [3].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Hong Kong stock market** and **global investment strategies** in relation to the **US dollar** and **gold**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Weakening of the US Dollar**: The expectation is that the US dollar will continue to weaken, leading to non-US assets outperforming US assets this year, particularly in the context of the Hong Kong stock market reaching new highs [1][2] 2. **Investment Strategy Shift**: Investors are advised to reconsider their portfolio allocations, focusing on non-US assets such as European stocks, Hong Kong stocks, euros, and gold for new investments, while maintaining some US assets due to the size of the US economy [2][6] 3. **Gold as a Hedge**: Gold is highlighted as a strong asset class that has performed well this year, providing a hedge against the risks associated with US stocks. The argument is made that gold and stocks generally move in opposite directions [3][6] 4. **Bitcoin vs. Gold**: There is skepticism about Bitcoin being considered "digital gold," with a preference expressed for investing in actual gold due to its limited supply and historical value [3][4] 5. **Economic Policy Critique**: The current US administration's policies are critiqued for failing to bring manufacturing back to the US, with examples such as Apple producing iPhones in India instead of the US. This reflects a broader skepticism about the effectiveness of these policies in changing economic cycles [5][6] 6. **Valuation of Hong Kong Stocks**: The discussion includes the valuation of Hong Kong stocks, suggesting that despite a low price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, there is a need for a clear rationale for any expected increase in valuation multiples. Factors such as monetary easing and increased capital inflow from mainland China are mentioned as potential drivers for higher valuations [6][7] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Volatility**: The volatility in the market is acknowledged, with a note on how external factors can influence investor behavior and market movements [4][5] 2. **Long-term Trends**: The speaker emphasizes that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term economic trends are unlikely to change significantly due to policy changes [4][5] 3. **Future Projections for Hong Kong Stocks**: There is a belief that Hong Kong stocks will reach new highs, with projections suggesting a potential increase beyond the previous high of 24,000 points by the third quarter [6][7]