该研究人员认为，在亚洲新兴市场，新台币和韩元的表现应优于新元、马来西亚林吉特以及印度卢比和 印尼卢比等其他高收益货币。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京9月22日电高盛经济研究部门的两位成员在一份报告中说，美联储降息预期实现对亚洲货 币有利。受看跌美元的观点支撑，高盛对未来几个月的亚洲货币仍持普遍乐观态度。 此外，美联储降息应该对亚洲债券有利，高盛认为菲律宾五年期债券和印度30年期债券等高收益市场最 有价值。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，8月，亚洲债券迎来三个月来首次月度外资净流入。由于市场预期美联储将通过降 息支撑降温的劳动力市场，高收益新兴市场资产的吸引力显著提升，推动外资回流亚洲债市。 美联储于周三宣布降息，这是自去年12月以来的首次降息。美联储表示，此次降息的原因是劳动力市场 面临的风险不断上升;同时，随着失业率小幅攀升、工作时长缩短及其他疲软信号显现，美联储暗示未 来将进一步降息。 澳新银行(ANZ)亚洲研究主管Khoon Goh表示："我们预计美联储累计降息幅度将达125个基点，到2026 年3月，联邦基金利率将降至3.25%。"他进一步指出，"美国货币政策立场趋于宽松，将对除中国外的亚 洲地区货币及资产市场形成支撑。" 从具体市场来看，上月外资净买入印度债券7.73亿美元、马来西亚债券7.21亿美元，结束了这两个市场 连续两个月的外资抛售趋势。不过，韩国、印度尼西亚和泰国债券则出现外资净流出，金额分别为4.47 亿美元、4亿美元和3.37亿美元。 印度、印度尼西亚、泰国、马来西亚及韩国等国监管机构与债券市场协会的数据显示，上月外资净买入 价值3.11亿美元的亚洲债券，这是自5月以来首次出现月度净买入。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Asian bonds are emerging as a resilient and rewarding alternative to traditional safe-haven assets, especially in the context of political and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Asian local currency bonds offer attractive real yields and potential for currency appreciation, making them appealing for investors looking to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets [1][11] - Asian dollar bonds are expected to provide higher returns and a more stable policy environment compared to developed market bonds, despite the narrower credit spreads relative to historical levels [1][7] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index has decreased by 6.3% year-to-date, influenced by factors such as the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, leading to uncertainty in the dollar's long-term trajectory [4] - Despite the large scale of foreign-held U.S. investment portfolio assets, the desire for investors to significantly increase their holdings in U.S. dollars and assets may be diminishing [4][6] - The supply of U.S. bonds is increasing, and inflation is rising, prompting U.S. fixed income investors to seek sufficient returns to compensate for duration risk, indicating potential upward pressure on long-term bond yields [6] Group 3 - Asian emerging markets are experiencing higher real yields, with countries like India showing nominal bond yields exceeding the latest inflation rates by over 420 basis points, indicating strong investment opportunities [11] - The demand for Asian local currency bonds is supported by lower inflation and higher real yields, which provide a strong investment rationale for these assets [11] - The offshore RMB market has undergone structural changes, with increased demand and improved liquidity, making offshore RMB bonds a preferred choice for investors seeking to enhance yield and extend credit duration [13]

富达国际认为，亚洲固定收益与美国国债、德国政府债券等全球主要市场债券的相关性属低至中度，具 备良好的分散风险作用。此外，区内债券市场已大幅成熟，包括东亚新兴市场的本地货币债券总额由 2000年的8660亿美元增至2022年超过23万亿美元。市场深度提升，有助流动性及吸引外资参与，进一步 巩固此资产类别的稳定性。 本地定期存款利率回落至约2%，亚洲固定收益为追求收益的投资者提供了另一可行选择，毋须承担过 高风险。以亚洲债券为例，其整体收益率高于美国或欧洲同类资产，而且存续期较短及波动性普遍相对 较低。对香港投资者而言，亚洲固定收益有助获取收益、风险管理及多元化地区配置等投资目标。 富达国际表示，全球金融市场经历美元资产重新配置趋势，以及地缘政治不确定性升温等转变。随着美 国主权评级遭下调及财政赤字上升，投资者开始重新评估美元资产部署比例。亚洲债券提供具吸引力的 收益率及较短存续期，成为值得考虑的替代选择。 ...

Group 1 - Invesco highlights that the investment environment in Asia is currently very favorable, with emerging markets benefiting from a weaker dollar, leading to significant foreign investment in Asian bonds, totaling $34 billion, the highest since 2016 [1] - The Eurozone economy showed a growth of 0.6% in Q1 2025, but may face stagnation risks in Q2 2025 due to weak external demand [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy rate but may signal a stronger inclination towards rate cuts in upcoming meetings [2][3] Group 2 - Since 2024, the share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined, with gold gaining 7.9 percentage points to reach 23.3% [2] - The U.S. budget office projects that the comprehensive tax and spending bill will boost GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually over the next decade, while also increasing the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion [2] - Inflation in the UK has only slightly eased, with core prices declining marginally, while geopolitical tensions are putting additional pressure on the Bank of England to meet its 2% inflation target [2]

Core Viewpoint - Asian currencies have experienced a rare collective appreciation against the US dollar, driven by various economic factors and a shift in global capital flows towards Asian bonds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - From May 1 to 7, the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index rose by 2.3%, with significant gains in currencies such as the Singapore dollar (up 1.41%), Thai baht (up 2.5%), and South Korean won (up 3.8%) [1][2]. - The US dollar index fell to 99.5 on May 7, down 9.4% from above 110 at the beginning of the year, indicating a weakening trend [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The decline in the US dollar is attributed to several factors, including lowered economic growth expectations, trade war-induced stagflation concerns, and rising yield premiums on US debt [1][3]. - The concept of "reciprocal tariffs" proposed by the US has raised inflation concerns, further impacting the dollar's strength [3][5]. Group 3: Capital Flows - In March, Asian bonds attracted the largest monthly foreign capital inflow in seven months, totaling $7.16 billion, indicating a shift in investor preference towards Asian assets [6]. - Countries like India, Thailand, and the Philippines have lowered interest rates in response to the US's tariff policies, further enhancing the attractiveness of Asian bonds [7]. Group 4: Regional Economic Integration - The acceleration of regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific, including trade agreements like RCEP, is making Asian assets more appealing to foreign investors [9]. - The ongoing shift towards "de-dollarization" is prompting central banks in Asia to diversify their reserve assets away from the US dollar [5][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of Asian currencies will depend on the stability of US trade policies and the progress of trade negotiations [10]. - Despite the current strength of Asian currencies, there are concerns about potential corrections and the impact of ongoing trade tensions on capital flows [10].