格隆汇12月4日｜光大证券国际指出，市场逐渐消化关税政策消息，转移关注美国的就业数据和减息状 况，以及AI人工智能板块的增长潜力。受到各国关系持续紧张及变化不定影响，黄金成为今年最触目 的资产，年初至今回报率最少达50%。预计现货黄金2026年的目标价为每盎斯4950美元。该行预期美汇 指数将小幅回升，除黄金外，可适时于资产配置中考虑亚洲债券收取稳定息率，亦可逢低吸纳人民币， 达至攻守兼备。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is favorable for Asian currencies, with a generally optimistic outlook for the coming months [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - Goldman Sachs predicts that the New Taiwan Dollar and South Korean Won will outperform other high-yield currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indian Rupee, and Indonesian Rupiah in emerging Asian markets [1] Group 2: Bond Market Outlook - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected to benefit Asian bonds, with Goldman Sachs identifying high-yield markets like Philippine five-year bonds and Indian 30-year bonds as particularly valuable [1]

Core Insights - In August, Asian bonds experienced their first monthly net inflow of foreign capital in three months, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to support a cooling labor market [1] - The Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since December last year, citing rising risks in the labor market and signaling potential further cuts in the future [1] - ANZ's Asia research head Khoon Goh predicts a cumulative rate cut of 125 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.25% by March 2026, which is expected to support currency and asset markets in Asia, excluding China [1] Market Specifics - In August, foreign capital net purchases included $777 million in Indian bonds and $721 million in Malaysian bonds, ending a two-month trend of foreign sell-offs in these markets [1] - Conversely, South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand saw net outflows of foreign capital, amounting to $447 million, $400 million, and $337 million respectively [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Asian bonds are emerging as a resilient and rewarding alternative to traditional safe-haven assets, especially in the context of political and macroeconomic uncertainties [1] - Asian local currency bonds offer attractive real yields and potential for currency appreciation, making them appealing for investors looking to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets [1][11] - Asian dollar bonds are expected to provide higher returns and a more stable policy environment compared to developed market bonds, despite the narrower credit spreads relative to historical levels [1][7] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index has decreased by 6.3% year-to-date, influenced by factors such as the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit and potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership, leading to uncertainty in the dollar's long-term trajectory [4] - Despite the large scale of foreign-held U.S. investment portfolio assets, the desire for investors to significantly increase their holdings in U.S. dollars and assets may be diminishing [4][6] - The supply of U.S. bonds is increasing, and inflation is rising, prompting U.S. fixed income investors to seek sufficient returns to compensate for duration risk, indicating potential upward pressure on long-term bond yields [6] Group 3 - Asian emerging markets are experiencing higher real yields, with countries like India showing nominal bond yields exceeding the latest inflation rates by over 420 basis points, indicating strong investment opportunities [11] - The demand for Asian local currency bonds is supported by lower inflation and higher real yields, which provide a strong investment rationale for these assets [11] - The offshore RMB market has undergone structural changes, with increased demand and improved liquidity, making offshore RMB bonds a preferred choice for investors seeking to enhance yield and extend credit duration [13]

Core Insights - The global financial market is experiencing a trend of reallocation towards dollar assets and increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Investors are reassessing their allocation to dollar assets due to the downgrade of the US sovereign rating and rising fiscal deficits [1] - Asian bonds are becoming an attractive alternative due to their appealing yields and shorter durations [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The decline in local fixed deposit rates to approximately 2% has led investors to consider Asian fixed income as a viable option without taking on excessive risk [1] - Overall yields on Asian bonds are higher than comparable US or European assets, with generally lower volatility [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - For Hong Kong investors, Asian fixed income aids in achieving income, risk management, and regional diversification objectives [1] - Asian fixed income has a low to moderate correlation with major global market bonds such as US Treasuries and German government bonds, providing good risk diversification [1] Group 3: Market Maturity - The local currency bond market in East Asia has significantly matured, with the total amount of local currency bonds increasing from $866 billion in 2000 to over $23 trillion in 2022 [1] - The enhanced market depth contributes to liquidity and attracts foreign investment, further solidifying the stability of this asset class [1]

Group 1 - Invesco highlights that the investment environment in Asia is currently very favorable, with emerging markets benefiting from a weaker dollar, leading to significant foreign investment in Asian bonds, totaling $34 billion, the highest since 2016 [1] - The Eurozone economy showed a growth of 0.6% in Q1 2025, but may face stagnation risks in Q2 2025 due to weak external demand [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy rate but may signal a stronger inclination towards rate cuts in upcoming meetings [2][3] Group 2 - Since 2024, the share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has declined, with gold gaining 7.9 percentage points to reach 23.3% [2] - The U.S. budget office projects that the comprehensive tax and spending bill will boost GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually over the next decade, while also increasing the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion [2] - Inflation in the UK has only slightly eased, with core prices declining marginally, while geopolitical tensions are putting additional pressure on the Bank of England to meet its 2% inflation target [2]

Core Viewpoint - Asian currencies have experienced a rare collective appreciation against the US dollar, driven by various economic factors and a shift in global capital flows towards Asian bonds [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - From May 1 to 7, the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index rose by 2.3%, with significant gains in currencies such as the Singapore dollar (up 1.41%), Thai baht (up 2.5%), and South Korean won (up 3.8%) [1][2]. - The US dollar index fell to 99.5 on May 7, down 9.4% from above 110 at the beginning of the year, indicating a weakening trend [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The decline in the US dollar is attributed to several factors, including lowered economic growth expectations, trade war-induced stagflation concerns, and rising yield premiums on US debt [1][3]. - The concept of "reciprocal tariffs" proposed by the US has raised inflation concerns, further impacting the dollar's strength [3][5]. Group 3: Capital Flows - In March, Asian bonds attracted the largest monthly foreign capital inflow in seven months, totaling $7.16 billion, indicating a shift in investor preference towards Asian assets [6]. - Countries like India, Thailand, and the Philippines have lowered interest rates in response to the US's tariff policies, further enhancing the attractiveness of Asian bonds [7]. Group 4: Regional Economic Integration - The acceleration of regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific, including trade agreements like RCEP, is making Asian assets more appealing to foreign investors [9]. - The ongoing shift towards "de-dollarization" is prompting central banks in Asia to diversify their reserve assets away from the US dollar [5][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of Asian currencies will depend on the stability of US trade policies and the progress of trade negotiations [10]. - Despite the current strength of Asian currencies, there are concerns about potential corrections and the impact of ongoing trade tensions on capital flows [10].