Core Insights - The World Gold Council reported that precious metals experienced significant price increases in December, with a notable divergence in trends among different metals, indicating a policy-driven characteristic for silver and platinum, while gold showed a moderate upward movement [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Precious metal prices surged, achieving the highest year-on-year returns in 45 years [1] - The final wave of this price increase was particularly influenced by policy factors and short-term market supply tightening for metals other than gold [1] - December's price trends highlighted the internal divergence within precious metals, with physical supply constraints and policy distortions driving up silver and platinum prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - As the distorting factors dissipate, gold's resilience, shaped by macroeconomic concerns and structural demand, is likely to become more pronounced [1] - Future trends for gold will be influenced by policy risks, inflation expectations, and investor positioning [1] - The World Gold Council noted that global geopolitical events have benefited gold, and there are currently no signs indicating a change in this trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after reaching record highs, with gold and silver witnessing their largest daily declines in years, driven by multiple factors including a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand due to anticipated easing of trade tensions [1][4][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices fell approximately 6.3% to nearly $4,082, marking the largest daily drop since April 2013, while New York futures dropped to $4,093, down 6.1% [1]. - Silver prices dropped nearly 8.7% below $47.90, the largest intraday decline since February 2021, with New York futures falling to $47.12, down about 8.3% [4]. Market Pressures - The decline in precious metals was influenced by expectations of upcoming talks aimed at easing trade tensions, which diminished the demand for safe-haven assets [7]. - A strong dollar, overbought technical indicators, and opaque investor positions contributed to the end of the previous upward trend in precious metals [7]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of critical positioning data, increasing uncertainty in the market [8]. Speculative Positions - Analysts warned that speculative long positions in gold and silver may have accumulated significantly, making them more susceptible to corrections [9]. - The absence of positioning data due to the government shutdown has allowed speculators to potentially build large one-sided positions [8][9]. Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe that despite the sharp declines, the fundamental factors supporting precious metals remain intact, suggesting that potential buying interest may limit further corrections [7][10]. - There is a divergence in analyst opinions, with some indicating that the recent price drop may not be entirely negative, as it reflects a correction from overvaluation [10]. - The overall demand for gold remains strong, with significant increases in prices observed since 2025, despite technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions [10]. Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market, which has risen nearly 80% this year, is also experiencing significant declines, influenced by macroeconomic factors supporting gold and historical market tightness [11]. - Recent outflows from silver inventories, particularly in relation to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, indicate a supply adjustment in the market [11].