Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after a period of record highs, with gold and silver prices plummeting to their largest daily declines in years, raising concerns among investors about future price movements [1][4][7]. Price Movements - Gold reached a historical intraday high before falling approximately 6.3% to around $4,082, marking its largest daily drop since April 2013, with a closing price of $4,130.41 per ounce [1]. - Silver also saw a dramatic decline, dropping nearly 8.7% to below $47.90, the largest intraday drop since February 2021, with a closing price of $48.7050 per ounce [4]. Market Influences - Multiple factors contributed to the pressure on precious metal prices, including expectations of easing trade tensions, a strengthening dollar, and overbought technical indicators, which diminished the safe-haven demand for these metals [7][10]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of critical positioning data, increasing uncertainty in the market and potentially allowing speculative long positions to accumulate excessively [10][12]. Technical Analysis - The relative strength index for gold indicated that prices had entered an overbought territory, prompting concerns about potential corrections and profit-taking among traders [8][11]. - Analysts noted that the absence of significant media catalysts on the day of the price drop suggested that the market was due for a correction due to extreme overbought conditions [11][12]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the sharp declines, some analysts believe that the fundamental factors supporting precious metals have not changed, and potential buying interest may limit the extent of any corrections [7][13]. - The recent lack of significant physical demand from India and the absence of key buyers in the Shanghai Gold Exchange were highlighted as notable factors contributing to the market's weakness [12][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts from various firms expressed differing views on the future of gold and silver prices, with some maintaining a bullish outlook while acknowledging the potential for a consolidation phase [10][13]. - The global largest gold ETF, GLD, saw unprecedented trading volumes, indicating heightened interest and activity in the market despite the recent downturn [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices marks the largest drop in five years, following a significant increase that pushed prices to historical highs, indicating potential market corrections and volatility in precious metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices fell over 5% in a single day, dropping below $4,130 after reaching above $4,380, with silver experiencing a decline of over 7% [1]. - The strong performance of the U.S. dollar has made precious metals more expensive for buyers, contributing to the recent price drop [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a noticeable decrease in global demand for precious metals as seasonal buying in India has ended, leading traders to become more cautious about potential corrections [2]. - The absence of key data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) due to the U.S. government shutdown has left traders uncertain, potentially leading to large speculative positions in gold and silver [2]. Group 3: ETF and Trading Activity - The trading volume of options linked to the largest gold-backed ETF reached record highs, indicating increased speculative activity in the market [2]. - Despite the recent price drop, the absolute scale of gold held by ETFs has not yet reached previous peaks, suggesting that upward momentum could continue, although historical trends indicate that buying pressure may eventually turn into selling pressure [3]. Group 4: Silver Market Insights - Silver has seen a significant pullback after a nearly 80% increase this year, driven by similar macroeconomic factors as gold [3]. - Market sentiment for silver remains volatile, with a short-term resistance level identified at $54, while fluctuations are expected to continue as long as gold remains relatively strong [3].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after reaching record highs, with gold and silver facing their largest daily declines in years, prompting analysts to focus on upcoming market developments in Shanghai [1][2]. Price Movements - Gold saw its largest daily drop in twelve years, with spot gold nearing $4082, down approximately 6.3%, while New York futures fell to $4093, down 6.1%. By the end of the day, spot gold settled at $4130.41 per ounce, down 5.18% [2]. - Silver also faced a substantial decline, dropping below $47.90, down nearly 8.7%, marking its largest intraday drop since February 2021. New York silver futures fell to $47.12, down about 8.3%, with spot silver closing at $48.7050 per ounce, down 7.16% [2]. Factors Influencing Price Decline - Multiple factors pressured precious metal prices, including expectations of easing trade tensions, a stronger dollar, overbought technical indicators, and opaque investor positions, which collectively ended the previous upward trend [4]. - The sell-off coincided with the U.S. government shutdown, leading to a lack of critical holding data. Analysts warned that speculative long positions may have accumulated significantly, making gold and silver more susceptible to corrections [4][9]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The relative strength index for gold indicated that prices had entered an overbought territory, raising concerns among traders about potential corrections and consolidations [6]. - The volatility in precious metals surged, with traders seeking to hedge against potential price declines or profit from the downturn. Record trading volumes in options linked to the largest gold ETF were observed [8]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Analysts noted a lack of significant physical demand from India, which has historically been a key buyer, contributing to market pressure [12]. - UBS reported that the absence of substantial demand from India on the day of the price drop was notable, and financing pressures for both silver and gold were easing [13]. Diverging Analyst Opinions - Despite the sharp declines, some analysts believe that the fundamental factors supporting precious metals have not changed, suggesting that potential buying interest may limit the extent of any corrections [5][15]. - Others pointed out that the recent price drop could indicate that investors are not overly optimistic, suggesting that the upward momentum for gold may have limits [15]. Silver Market Adjustments - The silver market, which had surged nearly 80% this year, also experienced a significant drop, driven by macroeconomic factors supporting gold and historical market tightness in London [18]. - There was a notable outflow of silver from warehouses associated with the Shanghai Futures Exchange, marking the largest single-day outflow since February [19].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after reaching record highs, with gold and silver witnessing their largest daily declines in years, driven by multiple factors including a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand due to anticipated easing of trade tensions [1][4][7]. Price Movements - Gold prices fell approximately 6.3% to nearly $4,082, marking the largest daily drop since April 2013, while New York futures dropped to $4,093, down 6.1% [1]. - Silver prices dropped nearly 8.7% below $47.90, the largest intraday decline since February 2021, with New York futures falling to $47.12, down about 8.3% [4]. Market Pressures - The decline in precious metals was influenced by expectations of upcoming talks aimed at easing trade tensions, which diminished the demand for safe-haven assets [7]. - A strong dollar, overbought technical indicators, and opaque investor positions contributed to the end of the previous upward trend in precious metals [7]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of critical positioning data, increasing uncertainty in the market [8]. Speculative Positions - Analysts warned that speculative long positions in gold and silver may have accumulated significantly, making them more susceptible to corrections [9]. - The absence of positioning data due to the government shutdown has allowed speculators to potentially build large one-sided positions [8][9]. Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe that despite the sharp declines, the fundamental factors supporting precious metals remain intact, suggesting that potential buying interest may limit further corrections [7][10]. - There is a divergence in analyst opinions, with some indicating that the recent price drop may not be entirely negative, as it reflects a correction from overvaluation [10]. - The overall demand for gold remains strong, with significant increases in prices observed since 2025, despite technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions [10]. Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market, which has risen nearly 80% this year, is also experiencing significant declines, influenced by macroeconomic factors supporting gold and historical market tightness [11]. - Recent outflows from silver inventories, particularly in relation to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, indicate a supply adjustment in the market [11].

Key Event Analysis - The U.S. is considering increasing tariffs on Chinese imports due to China's planned export controls on rare earths, prompting a strong response from China's Ministry of Commerce and Foreign Affairs [1] - The demand for precious metals has surged as a result of trade uncertainties, with gold prices rising above $4,300 per ounce [1] Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the labor market is under pressure, and there is an openness to a potential interest rate cut in October [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October is at 97.3%, with a high likelihood of further cuts by December [3] Geopolitical Developments - A ceasefire agreement in Gaza has been reached, although challenges remain regarding the implementation and future governance of the region [4] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have entered a rapid upward trend due to increased investment demand and supply constraints, with current prices at $54.218 per ounce [5] - India's silver imports have surged, driven by seasonal demand, further tightening global supply [5] Liquidity Concerns - London silver inventories have decreased significantly, leading to liquidity issues in the market, with borrowing costs for silver exceeding 100% [6] - The tight liquidity situation is expected to persist, supporting a strong price trend for silver [6] Market Impact Analysis - Long-term trends indicate a shift in global investment away from the U.S. dollar and bonds towards gold, driven by declining confidence in these assets [7] - The expectation of a Fed rate cut is likely to lower the cost of holding gold, providing further support for precious metal prices [7] Short-term Outlook - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and potential trade conflicts with China are heightening risk aversion in the market [8] Future Price Projections - Major international banks have raised their price forecasts for precious metals, with gold expected to reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026 [9] - Despite anticipated declines in silver demand, structural supply shortages are expected to support silver prices in the long term [9]

Group 1 - The global gold ETF holdings have reached the highest level since August 2022, with SPDR Gold Shares seeing an inflow of 122 tons this year, pushing the total holdings above 1005 tons, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects 50 larger market capitalization listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of securities related to the gold industry chain [1] - The index is characterized by high industry concentration and a value investment style [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: The US tariff policy has increased the average import tariff to the highest level in a century, leading to complex international trade situations and increasing the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The weak US non - farm payrolls data and ISM non - manufacturing PMI data have raised market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, which is positive for precious metals [3]. - Capital: Last week, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the ninth consecutive month. Gold ETF funds inflows increased, while silver ETF funds inflows slowed. Hedge funds increased their long - positions in gold, and the non - commercial net long positions in silver slightly decreased [3]. - Strategy: Multiple factors are positive for precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will be strong in the short - term. The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, with an upward trend in the short - term. For the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to short - term long - entry opportunities and buy on dips in the medium - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Price Changes: The prices of gold and silver in both domestic and foreign markets generally increased last week. For example, the spot price of gold in the London market increased by 1.41%, and the COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.24%. The prices of silver also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - Gold - to - Silver Ratio: The gold - to - silver ratio in both domestic and foreign markets decreased last week, and it is expected to continue to repair under the loose monetary policy, which will open up the price elasticity space for silver [10]. - Price Difference: The price difference between domestic and foreign precious metals slightly increased. The US tariff policy and economic data have affected the market, and precious metals showed a strong trend [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Factors - US Dollar Index: Weak US economic data has increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut, causing the US dollar index to weaken and providing support for precious metal prices [14]. - US Treasury Yields: The real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries decreased slightly, increasing market concerns about the US economic slowdown and being positive for precious metals [17]. - Key Economic Data: In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE price index increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The CPI in June also rebounded. The July ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the services PMI was 50.1, indicating a slowdown in the economy. Retail sales in June rebounded, and employment data showed a weakening labor market [23][26][29][32]. - Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The weak economic data has significantly increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Trump's nomination of a dovish Fed governor has further pushed up the rate - cut expectations [35]. - Central Bank Gold Buying: 43% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. The global central bank's gold - buying trend provides support for precious metal prices [37]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge Fund Positions: As of August 5, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 13,500 lots to 237,100 lots, while CMX silver speculative net long positions decreased by 8,700 lots to 50,700 lots [40]. - ETF Positions: As of August 8, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.56 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 65.86 tons [41]. 3.4 Other Elements - Inventories: Last week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.34% to 38.585 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.03% to 506.4924 million ounces. Low silver inventories and strong industrial demand provide room for price increases [45]. - Demand: In August 2025, the global gold reserve increased, and the total global gold demand in the second quarter increased by 3% year - on - year. The global silver market is expected to be in a structural shortage in 2025, with strong industrial demand [48]. - Key Events This Week: The US will release economic data such as CPI, PPI, and retail sales, and Fed officials will give speeches, which may provide more guidance for the Fed's rate - cut decision [51].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with expectations for three rate cuts increasing due to easing tensions in trade and geopolitical conflicts [5]. Macroeconomic Summary - The U.S. core PCE price index for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing the expected 2.6%, marking the highest level since February 2025 [2]. - The U.S. first-quarter real GDP annualized rate declined by 0.5%, worse than the expected decline of 0.2% [2]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 236,000, with the previous value revised to 246,000 [2]. - The market is observing a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some officials open to cuts as early as July, while others suggest it may be premature [2]. Commodity Market Summary - The silver market is influenced by the performance of gold; if gold experiences a significant pullback, silver prices may also adjust, but if gold maintains a high-level fluctuation, silver could see upward momentum [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which has a limited negative impact on gold prices, as previous influences on gold were relatively minor [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July with a probability of 79.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is at 20.7% [4]. Investment Outlook - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains one of cautious adjustment, with expectations of rate cuts providing some support for gold and silver prices [5]. - The potential for significant price movements in precious metals is limited in the short term, with both gold and silver expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [5].