Group 1 - The global gold ETF holdings have reached the highest level since August 2022, with SPDR Gold Shares seeing an inflow of 122 tons this year, pushing the total holdings above 1005 tons, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects 50 larger market capitalization listed companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of securities related to the gold industry chain [1] - The index is characterized by high industry concentration and a value investment style [1]

理性投资，风险自担 核心观点 基本面：上周关税方面，美国关税正式落地，将美国的平均进口关税提高到一个世纪以来的最高水平，瑞士、巴西、印度等国家正 在研究应对措施以寻求更有利的协议，国际贸易局势仍然复杂，提高贵金属避险需求。美国发出征收金条关税的消息，随后又进行澄 清，黄金价格短时间内冲高回落。美国非农就业数据疲软，且ISM非制造业PMI数据不及预期，服务业经济疲软，令市场预期美联储9 月降息概率大幅提升，叠加特朗普提名鸽派经济顾问委员会主席担任美联储理事，进一步强化美联储降息预期，对金银价格带来提振 。 资金面：上周C O M E X黄金和白银库存减少；全球黄金储备不断延续走高，中国央行连续第九个月增持黄金；黄金ETF 资金流入有所增加，白银E T F资金流入放缓；上周对冲基金多头增加在黄金的增持力度，白银的非商业净多头头寸略 有减少。总体来看，央行购金趋势延续，黄金E T F投资保持强劲。 策略：美国新一轮关税落地，国际局势不稳推升贵金属避险需求，叠加美联储降息预期显著升温，多重因素利多贵金 属，预计短期偏强运行，但仍需关注关税对市场的扰动。沪金价格长期看多，短期有上行趋势，中期建议持多或高抛低吸； 沪银短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with expectations for three rate cuts increasing due to easing tensions in trade and geopolitical conflicts [5]. Macroeconomic Summary - The U.S. core PCE price index for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing the expected 2.6%, marking the highest level since February 2025 [2]. - The U.S. first-quarter real GDP annualized rate declined by 0.5%, worse than the expected decline of 0.2% [2]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 236,000, with the previous value revised to 246,000 [2]. - The market is observing a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some officials open to cuts as early as July, while others suggest it may be premature [2]. Commodity Market Summary - The silver market is influenced by the performance of gold; if gold experiences a significant pullback, silver prices may also adjust, but if gold maintains a high-level fluctuation, silver could see upward momentum [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which has a limited negative impact on gold prices, as previous influences on gold were relatively minor [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July with a probability of 79.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is at 20.7% [4]. Investment Outlook - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains one of cautious adjustment, with expectations of rate cuts providing some support for gold and silver prices [5]. - The potential for significant price movements in precious metals is limited in the short term, with both gold and silver expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [5].