美联储会通过调整利率 —— 具体来说是联邦基金利率 —— 来应对通胀和失业率走势。联邦基金利率指 的是银行之间隔夜拆借资金的利率，它会影响银行的资金成本，因此银行会根据这一利率来确定向消费 者和企业发放贷款的定价。换句话说，你信用卡、汽车贷款和个人贷款所支付的利率，通常会随着联邦 基金利率的波动而上下调整。 自疫情以来，利率就一直是新闻焦点。2020 年至 2023 年初，先是超低通胀，随后出现历史性的高物价 上涨，这使得许多消费者和投资者开始关注利率，以及美联储如何对其进行调控。 股价往往也会对美联储的利率行动做出反应。利率下调可能会推动股价上涨，而利率上调则可能导致股 价下跌。但如果美联储维持利率不变，会发生什么呢？接下来我们就来解答这个问题，并分享一些在当 前利率环境下调整投资组合的建议。 维持利率不变的经济意义 美联储对利率的调控需要在刺激经济和控制通胀之间取得微妙平衡。较低的利率会提振消费者和企业支 出，这对股价有利；但如果利率下降过快，通胀可能会加剧 —— 而这对股价是不利的。 美联储决定维持利率不变，这一信号表明当前经济态势稳健，但通胀也可能随时反弹。 投资者预期 理论上，稳定的利率不应导致股价 ...

Economic Growth Perspective - In Q3, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, while the nominal GDP growth rate was 3.7%[5] - Industrial output growth was 6.2%, while demand growth (including retail, fixed investment, and exports) was 2.98%, resulting in a growth rate difference of 3.2%[5] - Export growth was 7.1%, compared to a combined growth of 1.92% for retail and fixed investment, leading to a difference of 5.18%[5] Consumer Spending Insights - The combined growth rate for travel and policy-driven replacement consumption was 8.6%, while essential consumption categories like food and clothing saw a growth rate of only 0.3%[5] - The consumer spending tendency in Q3 was 68.1%, down from 68.9% in the same period last year, indicating a decline in consumer confidence[48] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was -6.6% in Q3, a significant drop from the previous value of 1.8%[43] - Equipment investment grew by 14%, contrasting with a -4.1% decline in construction investment, highlighting a shift towards new economic sectors[15] Market Expectations and Policy Recommendations - To stabilize market expectations, it is crucial to maintain confidence in long-term economic transformation and short-term price recovery, with a target Q4 growth rate of around 4.5% to meet the annual goal[4] - The need for further reduction in mortgage rates is emphasized, as the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices was 3.93% while mortgage rates only decreased by 3 basis points[8] Employment and Labor Market - The total number of rural laborers working outside their home areas reached 19.187 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%[52] - The urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, showing a slight decrease from the previous month[56]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of strengthening expectations to enhance economic growth momentum and stabilize investor sentiment amid a diversified economic structure and weak visible demand [2][3][9]. Economic Perspective - Economic growth shows significant differentiation, with actual GDP growth at 4.8% and nominal GDP growth at 3.7% in Q3. Industrial output growth was 6.2%, while demand growth was only 2.98%, resulting in a 3.2% growth differential [5][15]. - External demand is outperforming internal demand, with export growth at 7.1% compared to a combined growth of 1.92% for retail and fixed asset investment, leading to a 5.18% growth gap [5][15]. - Within consumer spending, travel and policy-driven replacement chains are growing at 8.6%, while essential categories like food and clothing are stagnating at 0.3% [5][15]. - Fixed asset investment shows a stark contrast, with construction investment declining by 4.1% while equipment investment surged by 14% [6][15]. Investment Perspective - Visible demand is under pressure, with a -1.4% growth rate in visible demand indicators such as retail sales and real estate sales, while invisible demand grew by 5.7% [7][21]. - The leading indicator for profitability, old M1, faces challenges due to high base effects, complicating recovery expectations [8][21]. Need for Stabilizing Expectations - To enhance economic growth momentum and stabilize investor expectations, policy measures need to be intensified. Recent policy tools and incremental funding deployments have been observed [9][26]. - The core of stabilizing expectations lies in housing prices and stock prices, with long-term confidence in economic transformation and short-term goals requiring a Q4 growth rate of around 4.5% to meet annual targets [3][27]. Detailed Economic Data Analysis - In Q3, GDP growth was 4.8%, down from 5.2%, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7%. The PPI averaged -2.9% and CPI at -0.2% [35][39]. - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 56.6%, while capital formation contributed 18.9% [40]. - Consumer spending growth was 3.4%, lower than income growth of 4.5%, indicating a decline in spending inclination compared to the previous year [41]. - The industrial capacity utilization rate was 74.6%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous year [44]. - The number of migrant workers increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with average monthly income growth at 2.4% [48]. September Economic Data Analysis - In September, industrial output growth was 6.5%, while retail sales growth was 3.0%, indicating a mixed demand environment [52][58]. - Real estate sales area declined by 10.5%, and fixed asset investment growth remained weak at -7.1% [62][67]. - The stock market's low volatility has increased the relative attractiveness of equities compared to bonds, suggesting a need for continued policy measures to stabilize stock prices [10][33].