Core Viewpoint - The gold market has shown strong resilience despite the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, maintaining a steady upward trend above $4,300 per ounce [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 0.25% marks the completion of three consecutive quarters of policy easing, but it has adopted a restrained approach towards future rate cuts, limiting expectations to two cuts by 2026 [3]. - The minutes from the Fed's meeting highlighted the "lagging observation effect" and a commitment to returning inflation to target, providing a long-term observation window for the market [3]. - The cautious stance of the Fed, while suppressing aggressive monetary easing expectations in the short term, creates a favorable environment for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - The slower pace of policy changes has allowed bulls to consolidate positions around the $4,300 level, strengthening the medium to long-term bottom for gold prices [2][3]. - Current spot gold prices are hovering around $4,365.90 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of approximately 1%, indicating investor preference for physical asset allocation amidst policy uncertainties [2][3]. - The status of gold as a safe-haven asset remains intact and is becoming more solidified due to the Fed's ongoing evaluations of labor market and economic activity [4].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached historic highs in 2025, with London spot silver surpassing $60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures hitting $65.085 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of over 110% year-to-date, outperforming gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 12, 2025, both London spot silver and COMEX silver futures have seen a cumulative increase of over 110% this year, establishing silver as the leading commodity [1]. - The surge in silver prices is attributed to a shift in market dynamics, where silver's price increase has outpaced that of gold, driven by a change in demand patterns [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Silver Prices - The increase in silver prices can be segmented into phases: - January to February saw support from U.S. tariff policy risks, boosting safe-haven demand [2]. - March to April experienced a significant pullback due to international trade tensions, followed by a recovery as de-dollarization trends gained traction [2][3]. - From May to July, easing geopolitical tensions led to a rebound in market risk appetite, resulting in silver's price recovery [3]. - August to September saw financial attributes supporting both gold and silver, with supply chain tensions driving silver prices higher [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, silver is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by safe-haven and anti-inflation demand, despite a potential decline in industrial demand [5]. - The outlook suggests that while the Federal Reserve may enter a rate-cutting cycle, concerns over dollar credit and inflation will sustain interest in precious metals [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, but the scope for cuts is limited, indicating that the bottom for the dollar has formed. Long-term, demand for safe-haven assets, anti-inflation needs, and concerns over the credibility of the dollar will continue to drive precious metal prices upward [1][2]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals have shown strong performance this year, with gold and silver prices rising together and reaching historical highs. Gold led the price increase in the first half of the year, while silver accelerated its gains after June, outperforming gold [1]. - Recent factors such as tight supply of silver and rising expectations for overseas rate cuts have contributed to the acceleration of silver prices [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Actions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been pushed back, with increasing concerns about inflationary pressures from tariffs. The current rate-cutting cycle began in September 2024, with a total cut of 150 basis points by the end of October 2025, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold eight meetings in 2026, and while the rate-cutting cycle continues, the potential for further cuts is expected to be limited due to inflation concerns [2]. Group 3: Fund Holdings and Silver Demand - Fund holdings in SLV silver ETF have shown a significant increase in 2025, breaking a trend of declining holdings. The demand for silver as an investment has become more attractive, leading to a rapid increase in SLV holdings to the highest levels since 2021 [3]. - Global silver supply remains volatile, primarily influenced by mining changes. Although silver recycling has increased since 2024, the overall impact on supply is limited due to the nature of silver mining [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand for Silver - Industrial demand for silver has been growing, particularly in the photovoltaic and solar energy sectors. However, the growth rate is expected to decline as the peak consumption period for these industries has passed [4]. - Despite the anticipated decline in industrial demand, the investment appeal of silver is expected to rise, potentially expanding physical investment demand [4].