近期，白银价格迭创历史新高，成为2025年大宗商品市场耀眼的明星。Wind数据显示，本周伦敦现货白银突破60美元/盎司关口，12月12日最高触及 64.658美元/盎司，刷新历史峰值；COMEX白银期货同步冲高，最高触及65.085美元/盎司，随后均出现调整。值得关注的是，截至12月12日收盘，这两大 白银核心指标今年以来累计涨幅均超110%，稳坐大宗商品"领涨王"宝座。 Q 2025年以来，伦敦现货白银、COMEX白银期货累计涨幅均超110%，并远超同期国际金价表现，背后的原因是什么？ 过去三年，新兴市场国家央行加速增持黄金储备，成为全球黄金投资需求的边际增量来源，为金价提供了结构性上涨支撑。但这一情况在2025年发生变 化，黄金投资需求继续扩张的主导权回归欧美黄金ETF市场，意味着今年金价的进一步突破或离不开周期性利好的加持。据世界黄金协会数据，2025年1 —10月全球黄金ETF持仓累计增加约674吨，远高于去年同期的18吨；其中，北美黄金ETF贡献全球增量中的58%。美国关税政策风险、经济增长前景承压 和居民风险偏好恶化可能是今年欧美市场增持黄金ETF的主因。今年银价涨幅反超黄金，也侧面印证周期性购买 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, but the scope for cuts is limited, indicating that the bottom for the dollar has formed. Long-term, demand for safe-haven assets, anti-inflation needs, and concerns over the credibility of the dollar will continue to drive precious metal prices upward [1][2]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals have shown strong performance this year, with gold and silver prices rising together and reaching historical highs. Gold led the price increase in the first half of the year, while silver accelerated its gains after June, outperforming gold [1]. - Recent factors such as tight supply of silver and rising expectations for overseas rate cuts have contributed to the acceleration of silver prices [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Actions - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been pushed back, with increasing concerns about inflationary pressures from tariffs. The current rate-cutting cycle began in September 2024, with a total cut of 150 basis points by the end of October 2025, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00% [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold eight meetings in 2026, and while the rate-cutting cycle continues, the potential for further cuts is expected to be limited due to inflation concerns [2]. Group 3: Fund Holdings and Silver Demand - Fund holdings in SLV silver ETF have shown a significant increase in 2025, breaking a trend of declining holdings. The demand for silver as an investment has become more attractive, leading to a rapid increase in SLV holdings to the highest levels since 2021 [3]. - Global silver supply remains volatile, primarily influenced by mining changes. Although silver recycling has increased since 2024, the overall impact on supply is limited due to the nature of silver mining [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand for Silver - Industrial demand for silver has been growing, particularly in the photovoltaic and solar energy sectors. However, the growth rate is expected to decline as the peak consumption period for these industries has passed [4]. - Despite the anticipated decline in industrial demand, the investment appeal of silver is expected to rise, potentially expanding physical investment demand [4].