[Table_Main] 行业研究|信息技术|半导体与半导体生产设备 证券研究报告 半导体与半导体生产设 2025 年 12 月 08 日 备行业周报、月报 [Table_Title] 先进封装 2026 年供不应求，摩尔线程上市 科创板 ——行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 本周（2025.12.1-2025.12.7）市场回顾 1）海外 AI 芯片指数本周上涨 1.20%，Marvell 上涨近 11%，英伟达 和 MPS 涨幅在 3%以上，仅有博通下跌，跌幅在 3.2%。2）国内 AI 芯片指数本周上涨 0.5%。中芯国际、寒武纪、兆易创新和长电科技涨 幅在 1%-3%，澜起科技和恒玄科技涨幅不足 1%。海光信息、瑞芯微 和翱捷科技跌幅在 1%-3%，通富微电小幅下滑。3）英伟达映射指数 本周上涨 0.4%，兆龙互连和神宇股份涨幅在 11.1%和 7.6%，太辰光 和沃尔核材涨幅在 5.6%和 4.5%。景旺电子下跌 5%，长芯博创、麦 格米特、沪电股份和江海股份跌幅在 1%-3%。4）服务器 ODM 指数 本周上涨 1.5%，Wistron 涨幅在 4.4%，超微电脑、鸿海精密和 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth of Motorola in the smartphone market, particularly in India and the foldable smartphone segment in Europe and North America [5][15][26]. Group 1: Motorola's Performance in India - In Q3, India's smartphone shipments increased by 5% year-on-year, with Motorola's shipments growing by 53%, driven by strong demand for the G and Edge series and expanded channel coverage [5]. - In the first half of 2025, India's smartphone exports grew by 30% to 40 million units, with Motorola achieving a sevenfold year-on-year increase, surpassing 1 million units, 95% of which were exported to the U.S. [15]. - Motorola's shipments in India for Q2 2025 saw an 86% year-on-year increase, supported by strong demand for the G and Edge series and expanded distribution in smaller cities [18]. Group 2: Foldable Smartphone Market - Motorola Razr 60 led the foldable smartphone market in Western Europe with a 15% share, and combined with the Razr 50, the two models accounted for approximately 27% of the market [9]. - The global foldable smartphone market is recovering, with a 45% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, and Motorola's pricing strategy has given it a competitive edge in the U.S. market [11]. - Motorola has become the second-largest foldable smartphone brand in Europe, successfully replacing HONOR due to its more affordable Razr 50 model [26]. Group 3: Overall Smartphone Market Trends - In Q2 2025, global smartphone shipments increased by 2%, driven by growth in developed markets, with Motorola's shipments rising by 16%, making it one of the fastest-growing major brands [22]. - Motorola's global smartphone shipments doubled from 2020 to 2024, achieving a historical high in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% during this period [29]. - In Q1 2025, India's smartphone shipments declined by 7%, but Motorola continued its growth trajectory with a 59% increase, primarily driven by strong demand in offline channels [30].

Market Performance - On November 6, the market showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.97% and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.73%[3] - The total trading volume reached 2.08 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 190 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Over half of the sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in non-ferrous metals, electronics, telecommunications, and chemicals[1] - The technology sector, particularly the semiconductor and computing power industries, led the market rally, indicating a return to a strong tech focus[1] Capital Flow - On November 6, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 38.81 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 35.36 billion yuan[4] Global Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 49.7%, indicating a continued slow recovery in the global economy, remaining within the 49%-50% range for eight consecutive months[7] Industry Developments - China has proposed a cooperation initiative on carbon standards at the WTO, which was positively received by 25 member countries[5] - The first global industrial 5G standard has been officially released, co-developed by China and Germany, filling a significant gap in international standards[6] Fund Management Trends - There has been an increase in fund purchase restrictions, particularly for QDII and quantitative small-cap funds, reflecting a focus on long-term performance stability[11] - Over 96% of products from foreign-funded public funds have achieved net value growth this year, with several products exceeding a 50% increase in net value[13]

Core Insights - The global foldable smartphone shipments surged by 45% year-on-year in Q2 2025, indicating a significant recovery in the market driven by strong performances in China and explosive growth in the U.S. [1] - Motorola's Razr 60 series has emerged as a key driver of this growth, particularly in the U.S. market, where its pricing strategy has positioned it as the most cost-effective foldable smartphone [1][3] Market Performance - In Q2 2025, Motorola's market share increased dramatically to 28%, with one in four foldable smartphones sold being a Motorola product, up from just 14% in Q2 2024 [3] - Samsung's market share halved from 21% in Q2 2024 to 9% in Q2 2025, despite achieving record sales with its Galaxy Z Fold and Flip7 models in Q3 2025 [3] Competitive Landscape - Huawei led the Chinese market with its high-end Mate X6, accounting for over one-third of its foldable smartphone shipments in the same quarter [1] - The competitive pricing of Motorola's Razr series, starting at $699, has not been matched by any competitors, contributing to its success in the U.S. market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to be released in the second half of 2026, with a starting price of $1,800 [1] Group 1: Product and Cost Insights - Apple will use Samsung Display's (SDC) wrinkle-free display design for the foldable iPhone, rather than its own solution, to ensure mass production by 2026 [1][4] - The bill of materials (BOM) for the iPhone Fold is estimated at $759, which is 4% lower than the Samsung Z Fold SE, with pricing likely between $1,800 and $2,000 due to Apple's cost control capabilities [2] - Initial production is expected to be limited to 10-15 million units, reflecting the technical complexity and high price point of foldable devices [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The adoption of SDC's wrinkle-free design will reshape the entire supply chain [4] - Fine M-Tec, as SDC's metal plate supplier, is projected to start shipping display metal plates in Q1 2026 at a unit price of $30-35, with an expected shipment volume of 13-15 million units, capturing over 80% of the supply share [5] - Samsung Display is anticipated to be the main supplier of 7-inch foldable OLED panels, with an annual capacity of 15 million units, while LG Display may serve as an alternative supplier [5] - Apple may utilize titanium for the outer shell and liquid metal for the hinge, benefiting suppliers like Lens Technology, Amphenol, and Foxconn [5] Group 3: Market Response - Investor expectations for the foldable iPhone have positively impacted market sentiment, with Fine M-Tec's stock surging by 29.97% to 9,280 KRW on the KOSDAQ market [6] - Merrill Lynch analyst Yang Seung-Soo has given Fine M-Tec a "buy" rating with a target price of 8,200 KRW, noting that only two companies possess the required technical capabilities in the metal plate sector [7] - The launch of the foldable iPhone is expected to have a positive ripple effect on the entire supply chain, including companies like Amphenol, Hirose, TDK, Xinxing Electronics, and Samsung SDI, which are currently trading below historical average valuations [8] Group 4: Market Trends - The global foldable smartphone market is currently showing signs of fatigue, with growth slowing and a projected decline in 2025 due to high prices and concerns over durability and usability [9] - Samsung maintains a leading position in this segment with the most comprehensive foldable product line, while brands like OPPO, OnePlus, Google, Motorola, Honor, and Vivo are introducing unique foldable designs [9]