2025 年 9 月 3 日，权威市场研究机构 Counterpoint Research 最新数据显示，2025 年第二季度全球折叠 屏智能手机出货量同比激增 45%，实现显著复苏。这一增长态势的背后，中国市场的持续稳健表现与 美国市场的爆发式增长功不可没，而联想旗下摩托罗拉品牌凭借其最新的 Razr 60 系列翻盖手机，成为 推动这一增长的核心力量，尤其是在美国市场。 图为 2024 年第二季度与 2025 年第二季度全球可折叠智能手机出货量 从全球市场份额来看，2025 年第二季度的格局发生了显著变化。2024 年第二季度，三星以 45% 的份额 位居榜首，华为占 32%，摩托罗拉仅为 14%；而到 2025 年第二季度，摩托罗拉的市场份额飙升至 28%，每四部售出的折叠屏手机中就有一部是摩托罗拉产品。报告称，因受到摩托罗拉崛起的压制，三 星的市场份额在2025年第二季度出现减半，从2024年的21%下滑至9%，尽管其最新一代 Galaxy Z Fold 和 Flip7 在第三季度创下了历史最高销量，但这并不能掩盖其在第二季度的颓势。 Counterpoint高级分析师Maurice Klaehne称： ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to be released in the second half of 2026, with a starting price of $1,800 [1] Group 1: Product and Cost Insights - Apple will use Samsung Display's (SDC) wrinkle-free display design for the foldable iPhone, rather than its own solution, to ensure mass production by 2026 [1][4] - The bill of materials (BOM) for the iPhone Fold is estimated at $759, which is 4% lower than the Samsung Z Fold SE, with pricing likely between $1,800 and $2,000 due to Apple's cost control capabilities [2] - Initial production is expected to be limited to 10-15 million units, reflecting the technical complexity and high price point of foldable devices [3] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The adoption of SDC's wrinkle-free design will reshape the entire supply chain [4] - Fine M-Tec, as SDC's metal plate supplier, is projected to start shipping display metal plates in Q1 2026 at a unit price of $30-35, with an expected shipment volume of 13-15 million units, capturing over 80% of the supply share [5] - Samsung Display is anticipated to be the main supplier of 7-inch foldable OLED panels, with an annual capacity of 15 million units, while LG Display may serve as an alternative supplier [5] - Apple may utilize titanium for the outer shell and liquid metal for the hinge, benefiting suppliers like Lens Technology, Amphenol, and Foxconn [5] Group 3: Market Response - Investor expectations for the foldable iPhone have positively impacted market sentiment, with Fine M-Tec's stock surging by 29.97% to 9,280 KRW on the KOSDAQ market [6] - Merrill Lynch analyst Yang Seung-Soo has given Fine M-Tec a "buy" rating with a target price of 8,200 KRW, noting that only two companies possess the required technical capabilities in the metal plate sector [7] - The launch of the foldable iPhone is expected to have a positive ripple effect on the entire supply chain, including companies like Amphenol, Hirose, TDK, Xinxing Electronics, and Samsung SDI, which are currently trading below historical average valuations [8] Group 4: Market Trends - The global foldable smartphone market is currently showing signs of fatigue, with growth slowing and a projected decline in 2025 due to high prices and concerns over durability and usability [9] - Samsung maintains a leading position in this segment with the most comprehensive foldable product line, while brands like OPPO, OnePlus, Google, Motorola, Honor, and Vivo are introducing unique foldable designs [9]